Putin läuft die Zeit davon, um in der Ukraine einen Durchbruch zu erzielen

29 comments

1. >For months, Russia’s army has made only limited gains on the battlefield against Ukrainian troops starved of weapons and ammunition. That’s a growing challenge for President Vladimir Putin as his military’s advantage starts to erode.
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   >With Kyiv now taking delivery of billions of dollars in fresh arms from its US and European allies, the window for a Russian breakthrough is narrowing even as it continues to fire missiles and drones at Ukrainian cities including energy infrastructure.
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   >A Russian attempt to open a new front in Ukraine’s northeast Kharkiv region already appears bogged down without achieving Putin’s goal of creating a buffer zone along the border. Ukraine claims to be inflicting “very high losses” on Russian troops in battles around the town of Vovchansk.
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   >Russian forces advanced only marginally since taking the strategic eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka in February at the cost of huge casualties in months of fighting. They’ve been trying for weeks to take the key settlement of Chasiv Yar in the eastern Donetsk region.
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   >Russia’s strategy of attrition to exhaust Ukraine’s forces is “very expensive and bloody for the Russian army itself,” said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow-based Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. “It can lead to excessive exhaustion of forces on the Russian side, which in turn, gives Ukrainians a chance to counter attack.”
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   >While Russia is mounting attacks at several points along the front line, “we have chances to change the situation in our favor,” Ukrainian armed forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said Wednesday on Telegram.
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   >Putin insists his war goals are unchanged and that Russia will fight for as long as needed to win in Ukraine, regardless of mounting casualties in a war that’s in its third year with no end in sight. Ukraine and its allies face the challenge of sustaining resistance in a war that’s largely reached a stalemate.
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   >While Ukrainian officials raised the alarm about the threat of a Russian breakthrough during months of delays over US arms deliveries, Kyiv’s troops mostly held the line despite being outgunned as much as 10-1 by Moscow’s invading army. With President Joe Biden’s administration rushing US arms to Ukraine after Congress finally approved $61 billion in funding in April, the balance of firepower is beginning to shift.
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   >“Ukraine was in a deep hole due to the delay” in sending US weaponry “and they’ve been digging out of that hole,” US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters Tuesday on board Air Force One. “We have seen them withstand the Russian assault,” and in a situation that’s developing dynamically “weapons arriving on the battlefield at scale and quantity in the last few days and weeks have made a difference,” he said.
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   >European Union nations are also ramping up aid and weapons supplies to bolster Kyiv, even as Hungary’s Russia-friendly government continues to block billions of euros in wider military support.
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   >Putin must also now contend with a shift in attitude from Ukraine’s allies, with the US and Germany joining nations including the UK in authorizing Kyiv to use their weapons to strike targets in border areas inside Russia. French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday said he’s working on sending a coalition of instructors to train thousands of soldiers in Ukraine, despite threats of retaliation from Moscow.
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   >Group of Seven leaders will meet next week in Italy to weigh plans to provide loans to Ukraine using windfall profits from about $280 billion in frozen Russian central bank assets.
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   >“The prospects of Russia achieving victory this year have greatly reduced as a result” of the resumption of weapons supplies and aid, said Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Russia might have the largest number of soldiers, but a lot of their first rate armored vehicles have been destroyed” and it’ll take years to rebuild the army to its 2022 level, he said.

2. So is he going to admit defeat and pull his forces out of Ukraine?

3. He needs to go back to only being hated in his own country.

4. Putin will wait until the US election plays out. A Trump win, and a Republican Congress, no doubt he’ll continue. A Biden win or a Democrat controlled Congress, I don’t see him lasting

5. The timeframe between the last winter offensive and the effects of the US/EU delay in weapon deliveries until today was perhaps the last opportunity for Russia to make big gains. And they capture…a few villages in Kharkiv and the city of Awdijiwka. They did not even gain as much territory as they lost in the Kharkiv counter-offensive of Ukraine, let alone the Kherson one.

   I say: The war ends when the US re-elects Biden. At least in theory. The victory of Trump is perhaps the last card of Putin, combined with a faltering EU, to maybe have another shot at this in at best 3+ years.

   As long as the west supports Ukraine, Russia has no chance. And while western bureaucracies work very slowly, they DO work. And we are nearing the point in late 2024/early 2025 where we will see some major results. And at that point its all downhill for Russia.

   That doesnt mean that Russia will immediatly fall over and surrender. But its just gonna get harder, deadlier and more expensive with each passing month. Putin better have an exit strategy, even if it is a bad one.

   Maybe have Selenskyj disband Azov as some sort of propaganda move and hope that the normal Russian buys this as the end of the “nazis” in Ukraine or something. Otherwise its looking really bleak for him. Not even the nukes will help him out of this one.

6. It is also a good reminder that F-16s will soon be flying over Ukraine.

7. Has war done anything good for the country starting it the last 100 years or so?

8. This is not just Putin as an enemy! China, India and several smaller states are forming a coalition against “imperialism”. The backgrounds are as diverse as the battlefields. Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, the Internet. It is important to keep an overview in order not to end up on the defensive!

9. Bomb those barbarians!

10. Yeah yeah, just two more weeks.

11. It’s a general rule of thumb that whenever Putin starts making outlandish threats against the rest of NATO, bringing up invasions and nukes, whatever is going on the ground in Ukraine isn’t good for Russia. The new offensive in Kharkiv was designed to take advantage of Ukraine not having a lot of supplies thanks to the GOP’s shenanigans. Even with that advantage, Russia didn’t make impressive gains and Ukraine now has funding once again.

    Unfortunately this is a war of attrition which will prove costly for both Russia and Ukraine, but as long as Ukraine has the backing of NATO and the EU, Ukraine has a lot more resources than Russia ultimately has. Due to the U.S. congressional shenanigans, the EU and the rest of NATO have turned on contingency plans that don’t rely on the U.S. as much, which makes US support an extra bonus.

12. The only breakthrough he’s hoping for is Donald Trump winning the election in November. If that happens, the war essentially won for Russia

13. There is no expiration date for this war. War is the point.

14. At least he’s old and lives in constant fear and stress.

15. If he hasn’t hit the nuke button after having American weapons killing his troops on his own soil he’s done for.

16. We are into year 3 of a 2 week war. Get fucked Vlad.

17. >Putin Is Running Out of Time ~~to Achieve Breakthrough in Ukraine~~

    FTFY

    The walls are closing in on him, and he knows it. Hopefully he doesn’t go full ‘trapped animal’ because that could be very bad.

18. Shit, I didn’t realize that the complete lack of action by the entirety of the west put a time limit on this.

19. If Trump is reelected, then Putin wins. That’s his play and, unfortunately, it stands a good chance of working out for him.

20. Oh, no!

21. Putin’s treading water praying that mango Mussolini gets elected. Then we get to watch an American president undermine Ukraine and nato while cozying up to his dictator buddy. Dems need to drop their biggest card and bring out Michelle Obama. There’s no Republican who could touch her and she would demolish Trump. She would be a great President too.

22. Bottom line: the weapons the West provided helped Ukraine tremendously. Let’s just keep doing that, and putler can sit on a big fat dildo; he’ll never get Ukraine.

23. This is their second Afghanistan. And i’d argue even worse since Ukraine seems to be so narratively important for Russia. Putin promised everyone he’d get Kyiv in 3 days and the All-Russian nation thing came back through for example that one Putin essay. Not only he’s made pretty few gains, especially in the last year or so, but the war also catapulted Ukraine and Ukrainians towards the west, so it backfired on him pretty harshly. Once he pulls out, he’s gonna be removed from power.

24. will be interesting to see F-16 and Mirage-200 up against Sukhoi and Migs. May the best win. This will change the course of war and the future arms sales in the world.

25. Russia can’t even prostitute itself to China anymore. Putin is finished.

26. Am I the only one who can’t stand hearing this constant ”back before christmas” rhetoric? Every prediction so far has been wildly incorrect.

27. You think Russia would eventually react like how Americans reacted to the Vietnam war back in the day and everyone eventually agrees it’s BS? Or is the propaganda / fear that strong?

28. He should try his toilet

29. The fact hes struggling against a battered ukraine leads me to think his claim about invading the west might jist be a bit ill conceived to put it politely