What Happens to Europe if Ukraine Loses?

these are the Baltic states three countries part of the European Union tucked away in northeastern Europe they are Estonia Latvia and Lithuania each sharing a border with Russia and Latvia and Lithuania also bordering Belarus Lithuania has a Russian population of 145,000 people making up 5% of its total population Latvia has a Russian population of 445,000 and Estonia has 296,000 000 both nearly 25% of their total populations notably the Estonian city of narva located right on the border with Russia has a population that is 87% ethnically Russian doesn’t this ring a bell Crimea and the Ukrainian donbas region also had significant Russian populations before Russia invaded these areas in 2014 and 2022 respectively one of the main reasons given by Russian President Vladimir Putin for the mil milary intervention in donbas was to protect the russian-speaking minority from Ukrainian nationalists and the Ukrainian government and this very rhetoric is already starting for the Baltic region in January this year Putin announced that Latvia’s treatment of Russian minorities constituted a national security threat to Russia itself but the Baltic states are part of the European Union and crucially NATO this means that if Putin attacks the 32 NATO countries would theoretically come to their rescue right so surely he wouldn’t do this right well we’re actually not that sure and we will explain to you why but for that we first need to take a look at the situation in Ukraine as you can see we are fascinated by geopolitics and love exploring the Strategic and political intricacies that shape our world I personally enjoy managing these complexities myself and that’s why I love conflict of Nations conflict of Nations is a free online PVP strategy game where you get to choose a real country to lead during World War I imagine battling up to 128 other players in real time in epic games that can span weeks you’ll have a blast using a variety of units to build your army from tanks and jets to nuclear submarines plus you can seamlessly switch between playing on your PC and mobile with the same account and here’s an exclusive gift for you click on the link in the description to get 13,000 gold and 1 month of Premium subscription for free this offer is only available for 30 days so don’t miss out at the start of 2023 the Russian military had around 360k troops in Ukraine by early 2024 this number increased to 470k with plans to reach 600,000 Russia is also producing three times more artillery than the US and Europe combined allowing them to outfire the Ukrainian significantly and it gets even crazier Russia is in a full-blown wartime economy spending a nominal $110 billion last year or 5.9% of their GDP this will be even higher this year and if we consider purchasing power Russia spent almost $300 billion in 2023 almost as much as all European NATO members combined to be very honest with you it’s somewhat of a miracle how long Ukraine has been able to hang on even with all the help from Western allies but where does it go from here some argue that we need to intensify our support for Ukraine provid iding them with more advanced weaponry and financial aid others advocate for reducing our involvement and pushing for a peace settlement but what could a peace deal even look like given Ukraine’s current position any agreement would likely be heavily skewed in Russia’s favor we believe the minimum concessions Russia could demand are as follows Ukraine must seed all Russian occupied territories including crimeia Ukraine must be barred from NATO membership and Ukraine must undergo significant demilitarization many argue that while such terms are far from ideal they might still be preferable to the ongoing loss of thousands of lives each month at least there would be peace right but would there really be peace Russia might sign the agreements but their track record for honoring such commitments is questionable at best let’s dial back the clock to 1994 when the Budapest memorandum was signed this agreement was supposed to guarantee Ukraine’s borders and recognize its sovereignty in exchange for giving up its nuclear Arsenal even back then French president franois Mand refused to sign it warning the Ukrainian president they will trick you and he was right 20 years later Russia Annex Crimea and then 8 years after that they launched their fullscale invasion of Ukraine and these are not the only instances where Russia has failed to uphold its promises the 2008 invasion of Georgia and the ongoing conflict in moldova’s transnistria region are further examples of Russia’s disregard for international agreements and there are many others thus we wonder is such a peace deal enough for Putin are his military Ambitions met in 2005 Putin famously said the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century so yes we are a bit skeptical that a peace treaty with Ukraine on Russian terms will have any long-term effect in fact such a peace deal would keep Ukraine weak and allow Russia to regroup and launch yet another offensive in a couple of years time to then gain full control of the country and create another puppet state like Belarus and this is where the bull can really start rolling the next Target would most likely be mova a small country of 2.5 million people bordering Ukraine to this very day mdova has Russian troops stationed in transnistria an area within mdova with a significant Russian minority it should should come as no surprise that the US is now providing more military assistance to mdova compared to before the war and France has signed a defense cooperation agreeing to train movan Armed Forces clearly France and the us see this risk too now if Putin achieves a strategic objetives and incorporates mova Ukraine and the already subordinate state of bellarus into Russia they will have a combined population of around 185 million people depending how many people flee their countries and emerging from these conflicts Russia would possess the most well experienced army in the world and finally this brings us to the Baltic states the Baltic states all used to be part of the Soviet Union and as mentioned at the start of the video there is a large minority of Russians in all three states let’s take another look at narva right on the border with Russia with a significant Russian population if Putin achieves victory in Ukraine and potentially mova he might feel emboldened and could likely Target narva next but unlike mova and Ukraine Estonia is part of NATO so if Russia invades NATO will respond right well let’s examine Article 5 of the NATO treaty which states the following the part that people know is that an armed attack against one shall be considered an attack against all however it also specifies that members can respond in a manner that they deem necessary and this is super ambiguous do we remember Germany at the start of the invasion of Ukraine ukine they considered sending helmets an appropriate response so let’s imagine that Putin does invade narva and occupies the small town would France really risk Paris for narva where most of the population is Russian anyway and then there’s the next Wild Card Donald Trump during his last presidency Trump cast doubt on the US’s unwavering commitment to NATO’s Collective defense Clause raising concerns among allies about the reliability of us support this is what we think at EU Made Simple we acknowledge that these are hypotheticals with many ifs and butts the truth is we do not know exactly what Putin’s ultimate goals are but we don’t want to wait to find out we believe it is absolutely crucial to stop Putin in Ukraine yes supporting Ukraine cost billions but this support is necessary to ensuring Ukraine can negotiate from a position of strength preventing Russia from getting the upper hand imagine the cost of not doing so if if Ukraine loses the European Union will have to invest billions to manage the influx of 5 to 10 million refugees furthermore we will need to invest even more in defense to deter an even stronger Putin from further aggression this would cost many times more than what we spend today this is why we believe European Defense is one of the most important priorities moving forward we cannot rely on the US nor can we trust any treaty that Putin might sign in the future the best deterence is a strong Europe able to defend itself but now we want to hear from you we will present you with two options that you can choose from but before we do that one final word from our sponsor conflict of Nations which is a free online PVP strategy game set in a modern Global Warfare scenario click the link in the description to get your exclusive gift of 13,000 gold and one month of Premium subscription for free so click the link and fight your way to Victory so what do you think of our analysis do you think the European Union should continue to provide Ukraine with military and financial aid if yes then click yes if not then click no and this will then take you to the next video where you will get your next interactive question regarding European Defense thank you so much for watching and if you enjoy our content please sign up to patreon until next time

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๐Ÿšจ Tensions Rising in the Baltics! ๐Ÿšจ Dive into the geopolitical drama as Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania face potential threats from Russia. Discover the crucial role of the EU and NATO and the eerie parallels to Crimea and Donbas!

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Sources:
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240408-ukraine-donbas-ten-years-of-war-russification-russia-donetsk-luhansk
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4443781-history-shows-that-no-ceasefire-or-treaty-with-russia-can-be-trusted/
https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-vladimir-putin-ukraine-ready-peace-russia-war/
https://www.news-cafe.eu/?go=news&n=13198
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/aborted-peace-deal-could-be-basis-ukraine-talks-says-kremlin-2024-04-12/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russians_in_the_Baltic_states#:~:text=As%20of%202023%2C%20there%20were,of%20the%20three%20Baltic%20countries.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
https://osaarchivum.org/blog/nuclear-disarmament-and-the-budapest-memorandum-%E2%80%9Cthe-arrival-of-a-safer-era-for-the-world%E2%80%9D

Manifestos:
EPP: https://www.epp.eu/papers/epp-manifesto-2024
PES: https://pes.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2024_PES_Manifesto_EN.pdf
ALDE: https://assets.nationbuilder.com/aldeparty/pages/6401/attachments/original/1712824919/ALDE_Party_2024_Manifesto.pdf?1712824919
GREENS: https://www.datocms-assets.com/87481/1708539548-egp_manifesto-2024_courage-to-change.pdf
ECR: https://ecrgroup.eu/priorities
I&D: https://www.idgroup.eu/
LEFT: https://www.european-left.org/2024-eu-election-manifesto/#pdf

24 comments

  2. The problem is not Trump ,the problem is many European NATO members not spending on their military's for an actual deterrent!
    They agreed to 2% or more of GDP!!

  4. What a bunch of crap. Seems not only we have idiots as rulers we also have lots of idiots on common people parroting whatever the mainstream media tells them to think
    This all started after perestroika and ignoring all russian warnings and requests for negotiation since 2008
    The track record of breaking agreements is on the nato side. Latest with the minsk agreements

  5. It's great to see an English-speaking source that fully acknowledges that if Ukraine loses, other European countries are next, russia can never be trusted and it can never be assumed to be peaceful or satisfied, if had always been and will always remain an empire for as long as it exists

  8. There is another lobby pushing for a War between Christian Europeans and Americans against Christian Russians: A BiG DISTRACTION : The extreme Settlers around Netanyahu want to send all Palestinians, Hamas amd Islamic Jihad groups out of Gaza to Egypt and to Europe, and build luxury apartments and new Settlements in Gaza. Ministers Smotrich and Ben Gvir have made it clear : They and the Kach sympathizers want all Palestinians in Europe , and for that they need a huge DISTRACTION: A big War between Christians inside Europe , that it will create such Chaos in Brussels and Strasbourg, no one will pay attention to the Settlers pushing Palestinians out . In one policy that I agree with VonderLeyen, when she found out , online, that the Settlers were about to breach and open the Borders between Gaza and Egypt, a few weeks ago, in 72 hours she was in Cairo with a multi – billion euros package to secure Egypt Borders and keep the Palestinians in their Gaza Lands . That part of the Catastrophe is , so far, taken care of, but the other part, a War between Slavic Christian Baltics and Slavic Christian Polish and Slavic Christian Russians, that is far away from resolved, since the goal of the Puppet Master, Fink of BlackRock, is to start WW3 in Europe, burn Europe to the ground, and buy all the best European Assets, Companies and Lands at Bankruptcy prices, very cheap or free. And since many European men are clueless, he still has a chance to burn down Europe. Just follow the Money: All the EU & USA Taxpayers Money is going to Zelenskiy, every month โ‚ฌ 2 to 4 billion euros and dollars , and the biggest stockholder in most War Contracts , Reconstruction Contractors and Privatizations Contracts, is BlackRock and partners. It's a near perfect scam , and 90 % of Europeans don't even know anything about this , they only know about football, celebrities gossip, nicotine, alcohol or drugs.

  9. 604K isn't that weak ? ; comparing with germany in 1939 , they got 1.4 M strong to take on Poland , the US had more troops in Viethnam and Iraq , but I agree about the european war industry we should build up our own , and Ukraine should be allow to become member of the EU but not Nato

  10. Ukraine has to loose, because the west started this war. After a peace agreement, we need to make a deal with Russia, to protect our mutual interest regarding security. We have to work together, and stop dancing at the rythm of American neocons

  11. Whoever produced & posted this video
    Is ignrant of the role played by neo nazis of ukraine.

    Its true that russians living in donbass region of ukraine were persecuted by Ukrainians.

  13. Hahaha what bullshit. Wet trying any how make russian look like the bad oneโ€ฆ.. the hypocrisy of west is now known by all โ€ฆ.

  15. If Russia is interested in this countries it would not use military to attack. The main reason for Ukraine is being used by the West to get closer to Russia. NATO was advised many years ago that it must not inter Ukraine. Russia had known that the West will use Ukraine as an excuse to attack Russia. This scenario eventually came to pass. So, we can blame Russian and even our side.

  17. I just simply think Putin and the russian people aren't just out of their minds to attack EU. And if even we don't think in NATO, EU is a huge force and it will be unified immidately. The russians won't risk a third world war even with their allies…

  23. Belarus is in a tough spot right now, heavily influenced by Russia, almost like a vassal state as you said. But itโ€™s important to remember that not everyone in Belarus is on board with this. The country is divided: the older generation and some others lean towards Russia, but a large portion of the population dreams of a future with Europe, free from tyranny. The massive protests in 2020 showed that many people want change. There are still groups and organizations quietly working towards liberating the country. I believe we could see another wave of activism soon, driven by these passionate individuals and the general publicโ€™s desire for a better future.

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