Timothy Snyder:”If Ukrainians give up, or if we give up on Ukraine, then… we’re in 1939. We’re in 1938 now. In effect, what Ukrainians are letting us do is extend 1938.”

7 comments

1. >“So you had in Czechoslovakia, like Ukraine, an imperfect democracy. It’s the farthest democracy in eastern Europe. It has various problems, but when threatened by a larger neighbour, it chooses to resist. In that world, where Czechoslovakia resists, there’s no second world war.”

   >Snyder said such an outcome had been possible. “They could have held the Germans back. It was largely a bluff on the German side. If the Czechs resisted, and the French and the British and maybe the Americans eventually started to help, there would have been a conflict, but there wouldn’t have been a second world war.

   >“Instead, when Germany invaded Poland in 1939, it was invading Poland with the Czech armaments industry, which was the best in the world. It was invading with Slovak soldiers. It was invading from a geographical position that it only gained because it had destroyed Czechoslovakia.”

   >Snyder drove home his lesson from history: “If Ukrainians give up, or if we give up on Ukraine, then it’s different. It’s Russia making war in the future. It’s Russia making war with Ukrainian technology, Ukrainian soldiers from a different geographical position. At that point, we’re in 1939. We’re in 1938 now. In effect, what Ukrainians are letting us do is extend 1938.”

   —

   >Snyder made his remarks in Tallinn last month at the Lennart Meri conference, which was largely dedicated to Ukraine and held under the slogan “Let us not despair, but act”. It was held against the backdrop of Russia and China hailing a new authoritarian world order in a joint 6,000-word statement that intended to create an axis to undo the settlement of the past two world wars.

   >Many at the conference wrestled with how much had gone wrong in Ukraine, and why, and whether the west would shed its self-imposed constraints on helping Kyiv. In a sense, everyone wanted an answer to the question posed by the Polish foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski: “Ukraine has bought us time. Will we put it to good use?”

   >Johann Wadephul, the deputy chair of the German Christian Democratic Union’s defence policy committee, fears the answer to Sikorski’s question is in the negative. “If the war goes on like it is, it’s clear Ukraine will lose. It cannot withstand Russian power with its well-organised support from Iran, China and North Korea and countries like India looking only at its self-interest.”

   >Europe had simply not reorganised itself for war, he said. Listing the consequences for the continent in terms of lost human rights, access to resources and confidence in the west, he said simply: “If Ukraine loses it will be a catastrophe.”

   >Samir Saran, the head of the Indian thinktank the Observer Research Foundation, who described himself as an atheist in a room full of believers, nevertheless agreed that something bigger than Europe was at stake as he almost mocked the inability of the west’s $40tn economy to organise a battlefield defeat of Russia’s $2tn economy.

   >He argued: “There is one actor that has reorganised its strategic engagement to fight a war and the other has not. One side is not participating in the battle. You have hosted conferences supporting Ukraine and then do nothing more. But when it comes to action, Russia 2.0 is grinding forward.”

   >“It tells countries like us that if something like this were to happen in the Indo-Pacific, you have no chance against China. If you cannot defeat a $2tn nation, don’t think you are deterring China. China is taking hope from your abysmal and dismal performance against a much smaller adversary.”

   https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/08/putin-war-ukraine-forgotten-lessons-of-history-europe (hasn’t been posted here but a bot treats it like it’s been)

2. It would seem like quite large portion of the Ukraine population and the country’s allies are playing an enormous game of chicken. Many Ukrainians are refusing to enlist, and shore up the military, unless allies start getting serious with major arms support of a level far above what’s happened so far.

   By contrast, many of Ukraine’s biggest allies (i.e. the US and Germany) are basically saying that Ukraine should be grateful for what it’s getting and they will have to make up the shortfall in armaments donations with the blood of citizenry.

   I guess everyone will be happier when Russia conquers Ukraine and has it’s troops on the Romanian and Polish borders. The Ukrainian refuseniks will then finally be enlisted to shed their blood in the further pursuit of Russian imperialism and Ukraine’s allies will be able to shed their blood fighting their old allies.

   Fun games…

3. Timothy Snyder’s insights shed light on the resilience of Ukrainians in the face of adversity. Their determination is truly inspiring.

4. I have huge respect for Timothy Snyder, but I would argue for the fact that we are actually in 1942 right now.

5. Again, this is very bogus. Russia sucks, but they’re not where close to the threat of Nazi germany who had the world’s most powerful and aggressive military. I’m so sick of seeing people gleefully distort history in an attempt to push some silly narrative.

   Germany managed to topple full blown rich modern nations in a matter of days and weeks. It’s been 2+ years and Russia can’t even capture Ukraine, a country that prior to the war had the 64th largest economy in the world, comparative to Ethiopia and Guatemala.

   Russia does not have the coast city to do what Hitler did in the 30s and 40s.

   Stop exaggerating the threat that they are and be realistic about them and actually focus on what it takes to defeat them.

6. Letting this sink in it actually reminds you what is at stake here.
   Our lives may all be impacted by these events soon, let‘s hope they will not.

7. Am I missing something here? Why is he downplaying the communist Bolsheviks when they killed 10 million+ people in my country between 2 holodomors and the red terror by the time the war even happened….