Two major debates will open up in the Scottish Conservatives in the wake of Douglas Ross’s resignation. One will be about who replaces him as party leader, the other over whether the party should exist at all.
Thirteen years ago, in the aftermath of another bruising Holyrood election, an idea was put forward that the Tories should be abolished north of the border. The suggestion was that splitting from the UK party would help “detoxify” candidates standing for the new centre-right group in Scotland.
It fell flat when Murdo Fraser, the idea’s proponent, lost the 2011 Scottish Tory leadership election to Ruth Davidson, but it is almost certain to be resurrected when the battle commences to replace Ross.
Key to this will be the situation across the UK, not just in terms of the number of seats won north and south of the border but also the direction of the Conservatives.
One experienced figure said three issues would be key to choosing the next Scottish leader — whether the Tories ended up as a rump English nationalist party, what that meant for the direction of the party in Scotland, and who the next UK party leader was.
The source raised the prospect that the relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK party may have to be revisited if there is a lurch further right.
However there is a possibility of contests running north and south of the border at the same time. This would mean Scottish members — and indeed candidates — would have to make decisions without all the facts about the UK party being available to them.
A senior Tory said the membership was generally still “pretty lukewarm” towards splitting the parties but that view may be revisited if the Conservatives turned “Faragist after the election”.
That view was backed by a third source, who said: “A lot of MSPs would find themselves incredibly uncomfortable [about a move to embrace Nigel Farage or Reform] and there would be discussions [about splitting the party] at that point.”
James Mitchell, professor of public policy at Edinburgh University, said that a shift to the right would make it “almost impossible” for the Conservatives to recover in the polls north of the border.
“The Scottish Tories know only too well that being perceived as an English nationalist party pushes them to the outer fringes of Scottish politics,” he said. “It could also jeopardise the Union. It is not difficult to imagine the SNP seeing the prospect of a populist right-wing party coming to power on English votes as a means of reviving SNP fortunes.”
Two major roadblocks to a new party have moved to the sidelines in the past decade after being central to British politics in 2011. Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton is no longer prime minister and, despite his surprise return to frontline politics as Rishi Sunak’s foreign secretary, his style of politics, which admirers described as being “more in tune with the centre of gravity in Scottish Conservative thinking”, has long since been ditched.
There is also little prospect of a second independence referendum any time soon. In the run-up to the 2014 vote the idea of Scotland’s centre-right party needing to escape its UK counterpart was seen in many quarters as making the SNP’s case for separation.
Another question will be where the Tories have to come back from in Scotland. Sources close to Ross have insisted that his decision to backtrack and stand for Westminster has caused no adverse reaction on the doorsteps, even in key northeast seats.
This is backed up by people hostile to the departing leader, but there is a worry that it is a “plague on all your houses” attitude that means each round of negative headlines has less impact than the last — and that nothing can compete with Boris Johnson’s “partygate” or Liz Truss’s mini budget in terms of angering voters.
However there are concerns about Ross’s decision adversely affecting the Conservatives’ prospects of holding on to their seats or, on a good night, even squeaking to victory in a couple of others.
“It was always going to be tight,” said one adviser, putting a brave face on it. “And it’s still going to be tight.”
Aberdeenshire North & Moray East has a notional Conservative majority of 2,399 over the SNP but the nationalists upgraded it to a top-tier target seat after Ross decided to stand.
The major worry for the Tories is the 1997 wipeout, when the party lost all 11 seats at Westminster in Tony Blair’s New Labour landslide. It wasn’t until well into Davidson’s leadership, and in particular the spectacular post-2014 Scottish Labour meltdown, that big electoral inroads were secured.
Ross became leader in 2020 and has kept the Scottish Tories in second place. He defied expectations to win 31 Holyrood seats in 2021, matching their 2016 result, and recording the party’s highest vote share.
It has gone downhill ever since. The questions now for the Tories in their present form are, what is rock bottom and will the party smash into separate pieces once it hits the ground?
It’s good the tories have developed enough self awareness to have existential crisis’. They deserve it, truly they do.
Boo and Hoo, in that order.
Shows how much they pay attention to Scotland.
Time for Annie Wells to step up – snigger
I would predict he is gonna jump to Reform after getting elected and the rest of the Tories are gone. That’s a good reason to get ahead and quit as leader just now.
They might have this the wrong way around. Ross has quit because the Tories are in crisis, they aren’t in crisis because he has quit. He is an opportunist. I think he was attracted to Johnson, because like the former, I doubt he really believes in anything other than what might help him get on.
Like Davidson before him, he rode the crest of a Tory wave in Scotland, where they successfully positioned themselves as the party of choice for unionists, although she at least had the brains to exploit that opportunity, Ross just rode along on her coat tails.
Tories are in crisis because Labour have taken that right of centre ground back from them, and the SNP/Indy movement are themselves in a bit of a crisis. Although, you could argue they are not really in crisis, just moving back to their normal position in Scottish politics.
This is purely self-serving from Ross and no-one should read anything else into it
If Ross is one of the few Tories left in Westminster and they come second like the Tories are still expecting, almost guarantees him a spot at the top table placing him in a good position for when the Tories inevitably end up back in government
So the snp has been in an existential crisis then since nicola was forced to step down in shame after stealing all that money? Explains their poll numbers
10 comments
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Two major debates will open up in the Scottish Conservatives in the wake of Douglas Ross’s resignation. One will be about who replaces him as party leader, the other over whether the party should exist at all.
Thirteen years ago, in the aftermath of another bruising Holyrood election, an idea was put forward that the Tories should be abolished north of the border. The suggestion was that splitting from the UK party would help “detoxify” candidates standing for the new centre-right group in Scotland.
It fell flat when Murdo Fraser, the idea’s proponent, lost the 2011 Scottish Tory leadership election to Ruth Davidson, but it is almost certain to be resurrected when the battle commences to replace Ross.
Key to this will be the situation across the UK, not just in terms of the number of seats won north and south of the border but also the direction of the Conservatives.
One experienced figure said three issues would be key to choosing the next Scottish leader — whether the Tories ended up as a rump English nationalist party, what that meant for the direction of the party in Scotland, and who the next UK party leader was.
The source raised the prospect that the relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK party may have to be revisited if there is a lurch further right.
However there is a possibility of contests running north and south of the border at the same time. This would mean Scottish members — and indeed candidates — would have to make decisions without all the facts about the UK party being available to them.
A senior Tory said the membership was generally still “pretty lukewarm” towards splitting the parties but that view may be revisited if the Conservatives turned “Faragist after the election”.
That view was backed by a third source, who said: “A lot of MSPs would find themselves incredibly uncomfortable [about a move to embrace Nigel Farage or Reform] and there would be discussions [about splitting the party] at that point.”
James Mitchell, professor of public policy at Edinburgh University, said that a shift to the right would make it “almost impossible” for the Conservatives to recover in the polls north of the border.
“The Scottish Tories know only too well that being perceived as an English nationalist party pushes them to the outer fringes of Scottish politics,” he said. “It could also jeopardise the Union. It is not difficult to imagine the SNP seeing the prospect of a populist right-wing party coming to power on English votes as a means of reviving SNP fortunes.”
Two major roadblocks to a new party have moved to the sidelines in the past decade after being central to British politics in 2011. Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton is no longer prime minister and, despite his surprise return to frontline politics as Rishi Sunak’s foreign secretary, his style of politics, which admirers described as being “more in tune with the centre of gravity in Scottish Conservative thinking”, has long since been ditched.
There is also little prospect of a second independence referendum any time soon. In the run-up to the 2014 vote the idea of Scotland’s centre-right party needing to escape its UK counterpart was seen in many quarters as making the SNP’s case for separation.
Another question will be where the Tories have to come back from in Scotland. Sources close to Ross have insisted that his decision to backtrack and stand for Westminster has caused no adverse reaction on the doorsteps, even in key northeast seats.
This is backed up by people hostile to the departing leader, but there is a worry that it is a “plague on all your houses” attitude that means each round of negative headlines has less impact than the last — and that nothing can compete with Boris Johnson’s “partygate” or Liz Truss’s mini budget in terms of angering voters.
However there are concerns about Ross’s decision adversely affecting the Conservatives’ prospects of holding on to their seats or, on a good night, even squeaking to victory in a couple of others.
“It was always going to be tight,” said one adviser, putting a brave face on it. “And it’s still going to be tight.”
Aberdeenshire North & Moray East has a notional Conservative majority of 2,399 over the SNP but the nationalists upgraded it to a top-tier target seat after Ross decided to stand.
The major worry for the Tories is the 1997 wipeout, when the party lost all 11 seats at Westminster in Tony Blair’s New Labour landslide. It wasn’t until well into Davidson’s leadership, and in particular the spectacular post-2014 Scottish Labour meltdown, that big electoral inroads were secured.
Ross became leader in 2020 and has kept the Scottish Tories in second place. He defied expectations to win 31 Holyrood seats in 2021, matching their 2016 result, and recording the party’s highest vote share.
It has gone downhill ever since. The questions now for the Tories in their present form are, what is rock bottom and will the party smash into separate pieces once it hits the ground?
It’s good the tories have developed enough self awareness to have existential crisis’. They deserve it, truly they do.
Boo and Hoo, in that order.
Shows how much they pay attention to Scotland.
Time for Annie Wells to step up – snigger
I would predict he is gonna jump to Reform after getting elected and the rest of the Tories are gone. That’s a good reason to get ahead and quit as leader just now.
They might have this the wrong way around. Ross has quit because the Tories are in crisis, they aren’t in crisis because he has quit. He is an opportunist. I think he was attracted to Johnson, because like the former, I doubt he really believes in anything other than what might help him get on.
Like Davidson before him, he rode the crest of a Tory wave in Scotland, where they successfully positioned themselves as the party of choice for unionists, although she at least had the brains to exploit that opportunity, Ross just rode along on her coat tails.
Tories are in crisis because Labour have taken that right of centre ground back from them, and the SNP/Indy movement are themselves in a bit of a crisis. Although, you could argue they are not really in crisis, just moving back to their normal position in Scottish politics.
This is purely self-serving from Ross and no-one should read anything else into it
If Ross is one of the few Tories left in Westminster and they come second like the Tories are still expecting, almost guarantees him a spot at the top table placing him in a good position for when the Tories inevitably end up back in government
So the snp has been in an existential crisis then since nicola was forced to step down in shame after stealing all that money? Explains their poll numbers
Because tories are cunts that’s why.