‘Special operation might crumble’ as Ukraine strikes key targets in Russia| Hamish De Bretton-Gordon

‘Special operation might crumble’ as Ukraine strikes key targets in Russia| Hamish De Bretton-Gordon

we’re also hearing um about an attack on a command and control key command and control node which again actually you know it’s um from a military perspective if you cut off the communications cut off the direction we know that the Russian troops on the front line are all pretty very poorly trained desperate morale and if they’re getting no orders and being told what to do then that is a rabble and that’s what Ukraine wants they want this Russian Force to turn into a rebel and the fact that Putin over the weekend has been screaming about nuclear attack yet again saying that Europe is defenseless to me is is really showing how concerned that he is getting hit that actually you know and we also heard him talking about Ceasars and peace talks uh sort of 10 days ago that that actually the you know the special military operation might be about to crumble hello and welcome to Frontline from times radio I’m Alex Dibble times radio’s Deputy head of news today on front line we’re joined by former British army officer HH de Breton Gordon a former commander of the royal tank regiment and the UK’s joint chemical biological and nuclear regiment haish has served on operations during the first Gulf War in Cyprus Kosovo Iraq Afghanistan and he regularly contributes to Frontline and and times radio heish thank you very much indeed for your time pleasure thanks for having me um I thought we could start by talking about some developments in the last few days uh Ukraine carrying out several strikes uh on Russia most notably using another long range drone to destroy a Russian fighter jet how big a blow do you think that will be to to to Russia and indeed the the war effort well I I think these events over the last few days are are hugely significant um the the the Thousand Mile front line has been you know fairly static although the Russians have been making some significant gains and you know really for the last year or perhaps two years Ukraine has almost been fighting with one hand behind its back because it hasn’t had the ability to actually or or permission permission is probably the wrong word to strike into Russia itself you know that has been discouraged by the allies and until really a few days ago um the US has not allowed its Precision guided Weaponry um to be used to do that now now that all NATO countries who are supporting uh Ukraine have really given the goahead um it is potentially going to tip the balance and some of the attacks over the last few days are absolutely saying that now the attack on the the stealth the the most modern sophisticated Russian fight of the Su 57 uh that is in the metor at the moment is um you know on the face of it lose one fighter sort of so what but from a uh morale perspective uh for the ukrainians it’s fantastic and for the Russians it’s uh you know it’s a severe blow you know this is the the fighter that fires the Hypersonic missiles that are doing so much damage it’s supposed to be completely immune to anything but actually you know a a drone has taken it out now I think what what else is important and it’s an Open Secret that uh the ukrainians are getting an awful lot of intelligence for this targeting from from from NATO from predominantly I expect the US and the UK so that is having a huge impact we’re also hearing um about an attack on a command and control key command and control node wi which again actually you know it’s um from a military perspective if you cut off the communications cut off the direction we know that the Russian troops on the front line are all pretty very poorly trained desperate morale and if they’re getting no orders and being told what to do then that is a Rabel and that’s what Ukraine wants they want this Russian Force to turn into a Rabel so in order to do that and attack you know up to 400 100 kmers into Russia I think that swung the balance and and let’s face it Russia has not been hamstrung by this they can attack um from anywhere so yeah I I think this might be that we might be on the top of the tide as it were and it could be significant and the fact that Putin over the weekend has been screaming about nuclear attack yet again saying that Europe is defenseless to me is is really showing how concerned that he is getting hit that actually you know and we also heard him talking about Ceasars and peace talks uh sort of 10 days ago that that actually the you know the special military operation might be about to crumble well we can go into a number of the things you mentioned in more detail um over the our conversation but you you mentioned uh there that the attack on the command node the Russian command node that was um was directly hit by by Ukraine you’ve talked about morale based on your experience on the ground serving in the armed forces if you were Commander or indeed um a soldier and you have one of your command nodes being directly hit what does that do to to yourself what you’re feeling and what you’re thinking but also your unit and and and The Wider um you know Army that you have in that area well well it’s it’s rather bizarre I expect some of the Russian soldiers are probably delighted um because of the the cruelty and brutality that’s handed out by their commanders but but I think also from a morale side you know if if somebody is taking out your key areas way behind you you know with such Precision then you you’re starting to realize and and I expect all the all the rubbish that these troops have fed from from their commanders that they’re invincible and you know the ukrainians are just some sort of second rate military well you you start to realize that that is not the case um and morale is everything in Warfare it’s uh you know that to to to get out fighting is a terrible game it’s terrifying um but in order to do it effectively you need to want to do it you need that morale so I think again adding to other things yeah it could be very significant and yeah it could break whatever flat fragile morall those troops have uh because they know that you know if the if the generals can be taken out so easily you know what hope have they got so um yeah I think it’s it’s a big big big time Big issue this isn’t the first time Ukraine has uh been able to inflict this this sort of blow on on Russia um something that not comes out of nowhere that that would be the wrong way to put it but something that definitely makes you step back and say wow that’s that’s impressive um do you think that it again demonstrates how Ukraine are able to develop drone technology in Warfare I mean in the last couple of years in this conflict we’ve seen the technology develop and and move because it has to and it has to quickly but again do you think they’re pushing the boundaries of of drone War very much so I mean I I I think you know for those of us military observers you know the the evolution of the Drone Warfare as you rightly call it has been incredible uh fascinating when I was last on operations in Afghanistan you know probably eight no probably 10 years ago you know drones were just coming in you know we we were using them in onesies and twoes and it was a big deal now now Ukraine is is using thousands tens of thousands of drones for a whole host of things and the fact that a drone can go you know 400 miles into Russia you know and and destroy a you know a multi-million pound aircraft like an Su 57 is incredible but when one go is a little bit more forensic about it the way that drones are used on the front line in mass and what we’re learning also about Ukraine is mass still has a real value and the mass of drones and a lot of these drones are you know $500 a pop type of thing um but they still need quite sophisticated Weaponry to take them out um there was a lot of criticism about you know the the Brits and others using you know multi-million dollar missiles to take out you know Russian um or or hooie hooti forces uh but but actually you know that that is that that is the issue and that’s what we’re learning about drones and I think the ukrainians have incredibly resilient and Incredibly imaginative the way that they use these things you know I was a a tank commander for many years and we’re seeing the majority of Russian tanks being taken out by a $500 drone that drops a $200 hand grenade through an open hatch I mean that that is just phenomenal um and the key thing is you you get overwhelmed by them and if you can have overwhelming drone Force then then you can make progress and it’s something that we need to really get hold of in the British military because at the moment we have a few very expensive drones we lose one of those you lose a tremendous capability but if you have thousands of these things and I think people you know people who have seen these sort of drone dances in the air you know at at fireworks thing and all the rest of will get an idea of quite how capable these things are now and if you use them on the battlefield like the ukrainians you know you can make up you know it’s very clear that Ukraine hasn’t got the numbers o of Tanks numbers of soldiers numbers of everything else that the Russians have got but they do have drones on mass and although the Russians are using drones as well they don’t seem to be quite so um sophisticated and the Russians like to use their what I call their Mark pieces of equipment their Su 57s um you the Hypersonic missiles and all that sort of stuff you that’s all very good and flashy but actually um you know a piece that I wrote with the historian James Holland the other day in the telegraph was saying you know we have been so seduced by technology that we’ve forgotten about mass and actually quantity have has a real quality of its own and I think that’s where the ukrainians have really taken the Drone capability in a military perspective to the next level and been hugely effective with it and as Russia has responded to that increase you increased use of drones by Ukraine is there any danger do you think that the the West which of course has a huge stake and is supplying Ukraine with Weaponry that the West is almost being left behind by Russia’s development with regard to drone anti-drone Warfare and drone Warfare should in five 10 years or however many we think it might be that there’s actually a conflict between the west and Russia um that that’s a really good point I would like to say no and I think I’m right actually um I I know that you know both the Brits the British and the Americans are looking very very closely at what’s happening in Ukraine and you know that one won’t go break any state Secrets but they they will be seeing all this um the the the mod mod announced the other day that uh Porton down the the defense laboratory developed a new weapon called Dragonfire which is sort of an electromagnetic thing laser that shoots down drones you know at at sort of 10 pound a shot uh and which is the sort of capability that you need um so I think I think they’re looking very closely and of course you know hopefully you know they’ll be nicking is probably the wrong word but but seeing what the Russians are doing and taking the good stuff so so I think as we sit on the sidelines as it were um and try and give the ukrainians everything to do the fighting I think we’re also probably learning a lot I mean you do in Warfare things evolve very quickly but if you can learn at your enemy’s expense then all the better so I I am relatively confident that actually we’re staying up to the piece now the the the real issue here is is whether we and let’s look at Britain whether we are going to develop our military and invest in it from what we’re learning in Ukraine because you know the Strategic Defense review a few years ago that has given us the military we’ve got at the moment is against a a a concept is against a battle and is against an enemy that simply doesn’t exist now so you know what we need desperately is a as a defense review so that we can you know get into the counter drone Warfare uh get into the mass and and learn because if we have to fight the Russians and you know it is a distinct it is a possibility it might be unlikely but it is certainly a possibil you know if UK Ukraine doesn’t hold the Russians and they keep going uh nobody who looks at this in any detail thinks the Russians will stop at Ukraine then you know the minute they go further west than Ukraine we’re into a NATO war and we’ve got to prepare for that and you I know people have been talking about we’re in a pre-war period um we certainly are but the way to prevent the war is to prepare for it and if I was Putin looking at the British military now I would not think that we were preparing for war and that would encourage me so whoever is in number 10 come the 5th of July I think they need to really get hold of our military and make sure that is the conventional deterrence that will deter Putin because quite frankly any other threat we’re thinking about at the moment I think is Irrelevant in the next 10 years it is Putin it is Russia that we need to defend against lessons I’m sure for the for the whole of NATO not not just the UK abut going back a few minutes you were talking about comments made by Vladimir Putin that um Europe is defenseless to a nuclear conflict with Russia he made those comments um at the St Petersburg economic Forum um you know the latest of many nuclear threats from Vladimir Putin and from the Kremlin but is there truth in this that NATO and Europe would struggle to stop or deter Putin if the war in Ukraine does spill over no absolutely not I think the whole nuclear issue which of course Putin and and his sort of gangsters who are around him are are trying to pour as much fuel on that that issue as possible because you know so many particularly a lot of the European leaders appear to be petrified by the nuclear issue you know particularly those countries who don’t have nuclear weapons themselves and I think it is complete Bluff and Bluster um Putin was saying they’re defenseless saying he’s going to use tactical nuclear weapons well you know I’ve said this often and written about it often that this is just not going to happen and I think really importantly what we’ve seen with Ukraine being given the ability to use sophisticated American and British missiles to strike into Russia has make that made that you know completely unworkable because you know Russia’s Tac iCal nuclear weapons are on What’s called the scander missiles and and these are on big trucks um and they’re also put on aircraft like Su 57s now those missiles need to only have a range of 400 kilm they need to be on the Ukraine border to fire them now with all the intelligence that we’re hoovering up I expect the ukrainians would have at least several hours if not a day or so of of information of this so they now have the ability to take out the the Russian nuclear launchers themselves and the same with the aircraft so I think it is a complete irrelevance and Putin knows that and I think that’s why he was so uh verbose and demonstrative at the weekend on this particular issue because he I think he sort of feels that that you know things are running through his hands he’s he’s losing his grip but maybe if he can you know get some of the softer members of uh parliament in Europe to to keep worrying about it then then that’s a chance but I think it’s very important that people you know not only in this country but across Europe understand in my opinion and I’ve been looking at this a heck of a lot over the years I think the Russian tactical Nuclear deterrent is completely unusable and do you think it’s significant therefore that comments from the Kremlin from Vladimir Putin himself around this issue have come about in a time when we’ve seen the US say to Ukraine okay we’re going to give you the green light to use in a limited capacity some of our Weaponry to strike targets inside Russia and that that the comments from the Kremlin have have sort of arisen out of that context I think absolutely absolutely because if Putin can convince European NATO leaders that uh that this is going to lead to escalation then you know he’s that then that’s for him good because he knows that that’s the last people thing people want but actually you know he he’s done nothing so we know for the last you know four weeks and over the last few days Ukraine has been using Russian British missiles to take out Targets in Russia what has what has happened you know Putin has you know more hot air is coming out of his of the Kremlin and him in St Petersburg but nothing actually is happening and it’s been the same for the last you know since virtually since the 24th of February 2022 when he and um you know some of his other lap dogs have been shouting the nuclear issue nothing has happened there has been no escalation in over two years so again I just hope that Western leaders and our own politicians realize this and make decisions on the basis of that I’ve said is the his nuclear capability is unusable rather than assume that it is assume that it isn’t and we’ll be in a much better place because as I’ve said you know I think you know the front lines are in the balance at the moment but the the balance is Shifting very much towards Ukraine with ability to strike into Russia and again with Warfare we’ve talked about morale once you start to get a bit of momentum then then things are huge and and the other issue that uh is significant is is what we call the air War so the sea war Ukraine has won the Black Sea fleet has disappeared so Ukraine has freedom of maneuver in the sea on the ground they need air power to have freedom of maneuver on the ground if they get freedom of maneuver the ukrainians that is they can punch through those defense and apart from these missiles and the ability strike into Russia you we we know the f-16s are coming over the horizon if Ukraine can dominate the air and get air superiority even air parity then they can start moving on the ground so I think you know that that’s why I think this all so pivotal this summer is key because we know with you know Grand strategic things like potentially Trump coming into Power then that could change the American attitude so um in one way I think Putin is trying to hold on until November because he thinks you know Trump will be a bonus for him but for the ukrainians and I think for NATO and ourselves we we’ve got to absolutely push as hard as we can and now there is a glimmer of hope you know reinforc success um get on with it uh so yeah absolutely key the way things are moving and I I think Putin’s rank rant at the weekend St Peterburg is is somebody who’s really worried I think he realizes that you know things are going south they’re not going his way and there could be a chance that you know he could be back where he started in 2014 and that would be the end of him you spoken about the sea war the land War the air War what about the information War the United States has said today that it is um operating going to operate a base in Poland working with the Polish to to counter disinformation um from Russia and help Ukraine win the information war is that a war that an element of of this conflict is is that an element that we’ve almost forgotten and and forgotten its significance well let’s hope we haven’t forgotten its significance because it’s it’s absolutely key uh it’s all about influencing the population that’s what and the Russians you know they are absolutely the masters of this you know when when we had the Salsbury attack which is where I’m talking to you from at the moment when the Russian sort of chemical attack um what what Russia did really well was its disinformation every every 24 hours there were 60 bits of major sort of media pieces coming out of of Russia and people associated with Russia to try and throw everybody off and people started you know believing it and that’s another thing about quantity you know if you tell somebody something often enough you know that they start to question almost believe it so I think the Russians and there’s so much there’s so much of this stuff on on Twitter on X and social media that you know I I know who the Russian Bots and and Twitter R are but but I think most of the population probably doesn’t and some of it is is ridiculous and some of it is very clever so I think it’s absolutely key in the west um we’ve been you know not very good at what I’d call the open uh counter disinformation now an awful lot goes on in the shadows um but it’s a stuff in the in the public domain if you like where the Russians really focus and the challenge that we have in let’s say in this country um to to try and counter that disinformation for politicians and soldiers to put stuff out it takes so long to get verified and checked and you know every eye crossed and te whatever that that by the time it comes out you know it it’s past itself C by days it’s very difficult you know social media and disinformation is instantaneous and there’s so much of it but unless you can be instantaneous with your counter then you you you completely lose it so the fact that the Americans again set up in Poland and be closer to the action if it were is a really good thing but I think you’re absolutely right we we’ve probably forgotten about this and people are not focusing on it but everybody consume social media is getting Russian disinformation and propaganda all the time and I expect most of the time they don’t realize it perhaps one element of the conflict which again may have been may have gone under the radar if you forgive the the the pun um has been the use of um particular weapons by Russia in this case uh CS gas what’s your concern about the way Russia is using it but also the way Ukraine is able to defend itself but also defend its individual soldiers and individual military personnel yeah this is absolutely key and I don’t think it’s got the the coverage that perhaps it should and um you know part of my military career I was responsible um for for chemical defense and I also spent a time as the pesh murgers chemical weapons advisor for two years in the fight with Islamic State because the these are Dreadful weapons that that have a you know a massive psychological impact as well as a physical one and and the Russians you know everyone’s completely dispassionate about it have been pretty clever um they’ve used Rock control agents CS gas um to great effect because what they’ve done is they’ve dropped these gas canisters into the front line and not not not occasionally but we’re talking thousands of times um the ukrainians produced a report to the organization of the pro of chemical weapons which is the UN Watchdog who look after this at at Christmas last year detailing 600 events I did a study with with the telegraph with Jimmy rushon and royes did as well a few weeks ago and we identified thousands of uses you in fact I’ve spoken to people on the front line you say yeah it’s you know in the morning in the evening it’s it’s unbelievable but it’s so effective um because the most of the soldiers on the front line if they have a gas mask it’s an old Soviet one and although riot control agents you know don’t kill you you actually need a really good filter on your respirator to be able to counter them so because they have no respirators what it’s doing is they’re getting out of the trenches where they’re then you know attacked by the Russians and um CS gas sort of incapacitates you for about 5 to 10 minutes which is enough time and and the ukrainians have lost a lot of ground because of this but you know there’s a very very simple way to counter it is given good gas masks um uh you know Western gas masks and bizar Britain is is the Premier producer gas Mas in the world you know the we we provide all the Americans all their gas Mass the British military all their gas mass and NATO all its gas Mass so actually it’s something that Britain could could relatively easily sort out you know for and you know these things admittedly they probably need a few of them you know 100 ,000 or so I don’t know what the figures are but but you know the cost is is in in you know the the the millions maybe I don’t I don’t know but it’s not like missile it’s not like a missile that costs 2 million quid each so it’s something but it but it’s not you know it’s not the sort of bombs and bullets the people on the front line really want them but unfortunately you know when when people are back in keev or whatever asking ourselves and the Americans for stuff it’s it’s all about the sophisticated Weaponry but actually you know something like a gas mask will have the same impact it’ll mean that those soldiers can stay where they are and fight and and on the legalistic perspective actually it is a war crime um although it is a riot control agent under the chemical weapons convention it’s viewed as a chemical weapons and to use it in Warfare is illegal so you know this is something else for the international criminal court to issue AR arrest warrant for Putin again um so yeah and I I think it’s something that can be solved and you know the thought people sort of at the beginning of the war thought the Russians might use you know some sophisticated chemical weapons like novop but you know they know they don’t need to you know even a even a right control agent is is just as effective and the fact that that I have been writing in in the press and and doing interviews like this that people don’t realize it’s it’s against the Geneva Convention the chemical weapons convention is the reason that Russians are exploiting it because they think oh it’s you know you use it in Europe all the time to sort your riots out you know I’m just using it in Warfare to try and you know defend ourselves against Ukrainian sort of thing so yeah it’s significant we can sort it out and certainly something I’ve been lobbing you know various um Ministries in in this country and elsewhere to sort it out we we shall see well despite what is happening with regards to CS gas it seems from what you’ve been saying that at least you do have some optimism with regard when you look at the conflict in general that uh that there’s there’s a route forward um at least this through this summer perhaps and beyond for Ukraine so that’s that’s promising um Amish thank you indeed for your time it’s been great to to get your analysis again and we really appreciate your time on front line thank you that’s a pleasure thanks very much for having me thank you for watching Frontline from times radio the interview series bringing you expert analysis on the world conflicts particularly the war in Ukraine for more you can listen to times radio you can also go to the times website take out a digital subscription and have access to all the reporting done by our foreign correspondents in Ukraine and indeed elsewhere around the world and also listen to the times is World in 10 podcast every day we take you through the latest developments all in 10 minutes that’s the times is World in 10 podcast thank you very much indeed again for watching Frontline from times radio

“It’s an open secret that, the Ukrainians are getting an awful lot of intelligence for this targeting from NATO, from predominantly, I expect, the US and the UK. So that is having a huge impact.”

Strikes on targets in Russia such as command and control post could cause serious trouble for Putin’s invasion, Col. Hamish De Bretton-Gordon tells Frontline on #timesradio

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