How US air power could be a ‘breakthrough’ in the Ukraine war | Richard Spencer

How US air power could be a ‘breakthrough’ in the Ukraine war | Richard Spencer

one thing that has been identified as something that could make a difference is air power uh Russia has air power Advantage like it has an all um areas in terms of quantity of material but has not been able to exert a superiority over Ukraine its Air Force has underperformed Ukraine does have an Air Force but it’s a small and outdated one but it has held the Russian Air Force at base so the Russian Air Force does not have all its own way uh so so the new strategy is looking at this providing um you know the the there were a lot of concerns early in the war that providing fighter jets to um American fighter jets to Ukraine would be seen as too much of an escalation of this War uh America and Germany in particular didn’t want to get into that level of escalation but that Dam has broken it does look like um uh f-16s and other American jets are going to be supplyed to Ukraine um for uh use in you know the next stage of this war in in the hope that Ukrainian air superiority could be somehow obtained or uh and that of course would have a massive effect on the ground I’m Richard spener I’m a foreign correspondent for the times I’ve been covering the uh Ukraine crisis since it started in its latest round in February 2022 and I now also cover China today’s the start of the G7 Summit in Italy the G7 are a group of the world’s largest uh free econ economies U it’s it’s it’s it’s a it’s a non-technical definition but it basically means what you might generally refer to as the Western Powers there was an attempt um in a a couple of decades ago um to start broadening the G7 to include other big Powers uh like Russia and China so for it to become an informal Talking Shop uh on major economic Affairs between some of the big and biggest and most powerful economies but the divorce between uh the the Western block if you like uh and Russia and China in recent years has really put an end to that so the G when the G7 Summit meets today it’s really focusing on uh the interests of the big Western economic Powers America Germany Britain Japan um France Italy and Canada um and the challenges that they currently face some of which come from China and Russia the really interesting thing I think about the G7 is sometimes not the uh individual decisions it makes because it is a bit of a talking shop and a lot of the um a lot of the issues that are sort of confirmed at a summit of course have been thrashed out between the member states over a period of uh weeks months and indeed years so if you compare it as say with what the G7 was doing say 15 years ago when it was dealing with the Fallout of the economic the worldwide economic crisis um and I I say talking very closely to non- G7 countries not least China but also the Gulf States Saudi Arabia and so on about what to do about these um these huge financial problems global economic imbalances and so on um now it’s clear to the G7 that their biggest threats are much more um military much more strategic much more great power rivalry uh less something where you know everyone is in the same boat and so um you know for the last couple of years there’s been no doubt in anyone’s mind in any of these countries certainly the European countries uh that the biggest threat to to global stability from their point of view is the Russian invasion of Ukraine um you both for what it is which is a major war in the heart of Europe the biggest war in Europe since the end of the second world war where you know literally um thousands of uh men and indeed women are dying every week but also for what it says about the institutions um that you know we all depend on to make us feel safe um uh those institutions are you know just the the rules of the international game if you like you know the UN the the the UN Security Council um and global trade the rules of global trade which have been impeded um you’ve seen uh you know a mass RIS in use of sanctions to punish countries for their involvement in this war particularly the Western sanctions on Russia obviously um uh so all so so so these are these are huge and issues that can affect us all um in our daily lives in the future but which we don’t feel at the moment so much so there’s a lot of controversy about it and a lot of um uh a lot of emotion uh more than you know individual policy So sunx Gone said we actually need to make policy as well and and some other leaders are also saying this we have to do more than talk so sunak wants an increase in military spending um there’s been a lot of um uh concern amongst the more the military leaders of the G7 which it basically means in the European context NATO so America um the the the most military powerful countries in NATO Britain France and America that other countries are not doing their part by they underspend on on the military spending giving their the rest of their economy a boost of course but uh meaning they are reliant on on America and Britain and France really for for the defense of Europe um and uh you know that is also causing problems with America what you’ve seen in the um in the election campaign Trump is again as he did before um threatening to reduce support for NATO because he feels that Europe’s not playing its part so um you know it’s a talking shop but what happens on the side of this talking shop are are are are increasingly real policy issues the other you other big takeaway from the summit will be uh we are told there’s likely to be an agreement of a multilateral $50 billion loan to Ukraine uh to keep it going during this war with Russia and help it invest in in its military and also keep its economy going so um you know there are there are real things coming out of this Summit so this is emerging as one of the big challenges um the Russian strategy in in the war in Ukraine has never been quite clear I mean it’s obviously um the initial Invasion appeared to be an attempt to take K of um there was that two-pronged attack in the north of the country um as well as this Invasion from into the east of the country much of which um Russia still holds um but it’s not um it’s not been an allout Blitz Creek against Ukraine since then uh but what Russia has done is uh to Target um Power stations with its longrange missiles um one one area where Russia of course does have massive um military superiority is in its missile Arsenal and it’s used those missiles to Target uh Ukrainian cities but in particular to Target power stations uh you know and we’ve seen right from the beginning of the war and particularly that first winter of the war the um uh the the um the the the use of missiles to to Really damage electricity supplies Ukraine has done a pretty amazing job of keeping the grid online but there are increasing power Cuts particularly in the east of the country uh that’s damaging for moral of course it’s also damaging for um keeping Industries going that economy that the Ukrainian economy and military industrial complex relies on to keep its war effort going so that’s one area where where the West can um can help now one difficult of course is that because Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union a lot of its its um energy infrastructure if you like is is is um you know what they call Eastern Focus so its grid was originally linked to the Russian grid um in a way that in the way that for example Britain and French grids are connected to to lend each other support if if there’s a if there’s a crisis of one sort or another um one issue that Ukraine has been trying to to to solve is over the last not just couple of years the last decade it’s been trying to reorient the grid to the West so that it can link into into into Western European electricity supplies as a backup um and and I suspect some although they’ve not been particularly specific about where this money is going I suspect that’s where some of this money will be going to help that uh help that project the military issue in Ukraine really is is you know is the war stated is one side or another winning now what you’ve seen in the last year um is is is pretty clear um and pretty depressing really for all sides actually so you saw this massive Ukrainian Counterattack in the summer of last year which was a big ground defensive using all the Western uh tanks that Britain and um Poland and other countries had given to and America had given to to Ukraine these are much you know supposedly much bigger and better tanks than they than they had left over from Soviet days and that the Russian army itself had uh that Counterattack really didn’t get anywhere I mean it made a few miles progress um and uh and then Pete it out um you know the artillery that Russia has the massed tanks the uh the the very heavy defenses that they had um dug really you know stopped that advance in its tracks uh and in the spring we’ve seen a Counterattack This Time by the Russians whove just poured men into attacking in the East and and again what you’ve seen is some Russian gains uh no doubt you know they just have this huge weight of numbers on their side but they haven’t broken through to KH they haven’t broken through to any other major city they’ve taken some towns and Villages um you know several months on they’ve lost thousands and thousands of of men in the process um you know either side might make a breakthrough it’s not impossible um but what’s you know what the military strategist are really saying is that unless there’s a significant change in the resources available on either side either the resources they have or the way they deploy them this war is just going to carry On In This Very grinding way costing tens of thousands of lives hundreds of thousands of lives um for years um and uh so one thing that has been identified as something that could make a difference is air power Russia has air power Advantage like it has in all um areas in terms of quantity of material but has not been able to exert a superiority over Ukraine its Air Force has underperformed Ukraine does have an Air Force but it’s a small and outdated one but it has held the Russian Air Force at base so the Russian Air Force does not have all its own way uh so so the new strategy is looking at this providing um you know the the there were a lot of concern early in the war that providing fighter jets to um American fighter jets to Ukraine would be seen as too much of an escalation of this War uh America and Germany in particular didn’t want to get into that level of escalation but that Dam has broken it does look like um uh f-16s and other American jets are going to be supplied to Ukraine um for uh use in you know the next stage of this war in in the hope that Ukrainian air superiority could be somehow obtained or uh and that of course would have a massive effect um on the ground you know America has won its Wars in recent decades um in the Middle East for example in in Iraq where it has been able to bring um overwhelming air superiority to bear it’s lost them where it’s had to rely on on ground forces um so uh that’s the thinking American Western strategy is always geared around air power so if it can give air power to the to the ukrainians that might be you know the the next you know attempt attempted breakthrough um so that’s what we’re seeing being discussed here um and that’s what zilinsky now wants very much he wants not just the Jets of course but the training that goes with it

“If you can give airpower to the Ukrainians, that might be the next attempt to breakthrough.”

G7 leaders meet to discuss a “$50bn loan” to Ukraine as Zelensky pushes for superior air power, explains The Times’s Richard Spencer.

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