The Overlooked (But Real) Possibility of a Big Democratic Win | Both moderates and progressives are pushing the Biden campaign to get more ambitious

28 comments

1. One section from the article:

   >Democrats need to flip only a few seats to recapture the House. Holding the Senate won’t be easy, but thanks to the retirements of a pair of maverick Democrats, even a small majority could open a path to substantial legislative achievements such as the passage of a comprehensive voting-rights bill, a federal guarantee for abortion rights, lower drug prices, and an expanded social safety net.
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   >A wide-ranging group of Democrats—including moderates running in swing districts as well as those in the party’s left wing—wants the president to emphasize the promise of his second term as much as, if not more than, the peril of Trump’s. Because Biden focuses so much on the threat Trump poses to democracy and the rule of law, they think Biden risks losing voters who want to see tangible improvements in their lives.
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   >“In my district, I would urge him to talk about bread-and-butter issues almost exclusively,” Representative Susan Wild of Pennsylvania, a Democrat in a competitive race for reelection, told me. “That’s not to say that preserving our democracy isn’t important, believe me. But it’s hard for people to even think about something as existential as democracy if they’re having trouble buying groceries or paying their rent.”
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   >When Biden does talk about policy instead of democracy, he focuses more on what he did in his first term than what he would do in a second. This is standard practice for incumbent presidents, but voters’ lack of enthusiasm for Biden has convinced many Democrats that his record won’t be enough. Polling suggests they are right; surveys show that many voters—particularly those under 30—are unaware of, or unmoved by, Biden’s investments in infrastructure and decarbonization or his drug-price and gun-control reforms.
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   >Biden hasn’t been completely silent about what he would do with a unified government. “If Americans send me a Congress that supports the right to choose, I promise you, I will restore Roe v. Wade as the law of the land again,” the president said during his State of the Union address in March, a line he frequently repeats on the campaign trail. He’s also talked about extending to all Americans a $35 monthly cap on insulin costs that Congress enacted for some Medicare beneficiaries, restoring the expanded child tax credit that he signed into law during the pandemic, and banning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines.
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   >But to this point, such promises have gotten relatively little airtime. Biden’s campaign website, for example, doesn’t even include a policy section. Campaign officials say their emphasis on promoting Biden’s record and attacking Trump is both consistent with successful reelection bids of the past and responsive to the president’s current electoral challenges. Michael Tyler, the Biden campaign’s communications director, noted that the president is already performing well among people who are closely following the election. “The work that we need to do over the course of the next five months,” he told me, “is address the information gap with folks who have not been paying as much attention.

   It would be helpful if, in addition to communicating more effectively about policy goals, the campaign would also develop a clear long-range vision for the country as a whole. Having something to aspire to can be helpful for non-core supporters, and can help bring people together. This would be especially useful if paired with proposed policies and a road map of how to get there.

2. That 20 point shift in Ohio towards Democrats, even though it didn’t result in a W there in that particular race, is a very big indicator as to what is going to happen in November.

   In most places that 20 points is going to result in a landslide.

3. Trump will flee the country when he loses in November – like any totally innocent American brought up on sham charges would do.

4. The Dems need to promise that they will overhaul the American political system. The Republicans are promising that they will do
   that in their own way. I am sick and tired of this endless partisan bullshit. It’s embarrassing and dangerous and unhealthy

5. Crush the GOP up and down the ballot in November and all subsequent elections. They need to be decimated and punished for their crimes (fecal smearing coup, presidential espionage). They are all complicit and the GOP as a party must die and the extremist traitors MINIMALLY be made to go to ground again. We have had decades of their assault on democracy and it will take a long time to repair.

   https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalMemes/s/9bjnRedT04

6. I believe this! We can’t just beat trump and maga we have to beat them by 8 points or more. For democracy, for women’s rights. For law and order. FOR ALL OF AMERICA NOT JUST DEMOCRATS

7. Huh, news to me, everywhere I see everyone from reddit posters to journalists reading early poll results and reaching for the paper bags to breathe into.

   The Biden campaign mentioned making a play for Florida though.

   This headline sounds like pure clickbait.

8. Dont believe a word of this. Get out and vote anyway

9. Just remember, there is a huge portion of the population that is ignoring all the political stuff until October. All these polls mean nothing. Once they decide to pay attention right before they vote, we could see a major shift towards the Democrats, even in deep red states.

10. >Janelle Bynum, an Oregon Democrat trying to flip a Republican-held House district, told me she thinks the party is relying too much on its past accomplishments and not enough on its plans to address voters’ everyday concerns in the future.

    Does seem like an obvious play, doesn’t it?

11. The scale of Trump’s defeat matters.

    For one, the larger defeat, the less traction the inevitable claims of a rigged election will get.

    Moreover, the only thing that might potentially get the GOP to rethink its extremist white nationalism is a resounding defeat.

12. I’m voting based on a “Don’t stick your pick in crazy” policy.

13. My dad is convinced that October will be hells reckoning for democrats so I really hope people come out and vote

14. National Dems with Biden leading the charge need to lay out a future for our country. Some easy to follow and understand points of why and how they will make peoples lives better. No means testing bullshit just straight solutions and help for the working class. Give people a reason to vote for you and not just against the other side (even if against the other side is a good reason)

15. TL:DR – Vote Blue!
    From a macro perspective, I’m hoping that women (and anyone that is related to a woman lol) are energized to vote blue to support reproductive freedom. From a more micro/state level perspective, specific ballot measures on abortion rights and legalizing cannabis give me hope that there will be a blue wave on those issues. I’ve also seen some interviews suggesting that the Supreme Court’s bump stock decision may bring people out in Nevada. Those are policy specific; I also agree with “people are tired of the crazy” as has been pointed out. So, I’m quietly hoping for a big blue wave. The other side of me is deeply worried about local outbreaks of violence and state level election officials creating havoc and refusing to certify. These things take up more space in my brain than they should, ultimately – and I’m doing what I can to support a couple house races locally.

16. I mean really!! We need to “push” people to not vote for Trump?? What record of wins after his 2020 loss are we supposed to be looking at that make anyone nervous?

17. Wtf are Moderates pushing for, more cuts to welfare? More bipartisanship with authoritarians?

18. For the love of god Ohio is in play please spend time here!

19. What’s most important is reminding people of down ballot elections. It’s not just about the top of the ticket. Down ballot matters just as much. 

20. I wonder if the polling is mainly geared toward quantifying the “pro” votes, like pro-Trump voters and pro-Biden voters, and missing that a lot of the Biden vote will be from people who aren’t hot on Biden but motivated as hell to vote against Trump.

    I think polling is set up to gauge how motivated a candidate’s potential voters are to get out and vote because traditionally that maps to who wins, but also all the presidential candidates the last several decades have been campaigning based on seeking broad appeal from as much of the electorate as possible whereas Trump doubles down on being wildly divisive, which makes the supporters he has rabid but also stirs up way more anti-votes than past candidates.

21. If biden wins he should appoint more supreme court Justices.

22. In East Tennessee four years ago there were at least two Trump flags on every truck. Now there’s nothing. No signs, all the bumper stickers are old, and most of the flags are gone. The energy is gone.

    I think the polls are not only wrong, but this could be Democrats’ best election year since 1932.

23. Push a platform that actually benefits most Americans, increases in wages, benefits, continues erasing predatory debt and predatory business practices…it could be huge if they actually want to win.

24. Sleepy Joe vs Crooked Don. We’re screwed

25. Neat headline, I guess. I wonder how they would support the argument. I guess I’ll never know, because I would never give money to the publication that publishes Jesse Singal. Plus, there are hundreds of publications all wanting me to pay for them.

26. It’s not a “real” possibility. Literally speaking, anything at all is a real possibility in electoral politics but this isn’t going to happen. Every piece of data and evidence we have suggests Biden has lost 2020 voters and that Trump has essentially not lost as many, even with J6.

    This wishful thinking is not helpful imho.

27. The concern about Trump in 2024 is over blown. Trump is suffering from three types of dementia. He will be in a vegetative state soom

28. So … suppose *The Atlantic* is right about this, and Biden wins again.

    **Realistically**, what is Trump’s position? Does he carry on about “stolen election” for *four more years*? Does he stay a thorn in the flesh? Does he continue to control the GOP … or do they finally jettison him?

    I suppose there are two major sub-cases:

    * He loses by a little.
    * He loses by a LOT.

    Is the outcome different in those two cases??