Putin in a ‘weak position’ as his attempt to find allies in Asia falters | Mark Galeotti

Putin in a ‘weak position’ as his attempt to find allies in Asia falters | Mark Galeotti

it’s clear that the Vietnamese are being very cautious but this is the thing they’re not in a position like China that in a way knows that there only only so far the West will go with them so I I think this is it Putin Putin’s in a weak position he’s playing a weak position quite well but when it comes down to it Vietnam most other countries in the world they’re not going to outright Ally with Russia for that very reason so Vladimir Putin has been touring East Asia this week as he tries to offset Russia’s International isolation following the invasion of UK Ukraine he’s now getting a warm welcome in Vietnam after a lavish visit to North Korea so what exactly is going on let’s speak to Russia analyst and author Mark gallotti uh good morning to you hello there are you surprised I mean we we’ve seen the links before with North Korea are you surprised that this visit has happened now not really I mean I think it’s first of all practical he wants the ammunition that he can buy from North Korea and the North Koreans are obligingly stumping up what looks like another 5 million rounds of artillery sh so there is a sort of just a very pragmatic transactional Dimension but there’s also the fact that I think Putin is trying to make the point both to his own people and to the outside world but I’m actually not that isolated I mean North Korea in some ways is no surprise but the fact that he then moved on to Vietnam which is by no means one of these kind of isolated parah States demonstrates this point he’s making is that the West thinks that we it’s got us completely sort of bound but in fact with within the global South what he calls the world majority we still have friends what is the the link with Vietnam what’s the relationship there because as you as you point out North Korea you’d say yeah probably can see a reason for that relationship but why Vietnam well Vietnam is a country that obviously Russia back in the so Soviet times had had a long productive relationship with and there’s still a certain amount of pro-russian sentiment within the population as a result of that it’s always been in some ways much more important to Russia and it’s worth noting after all that Putin hadn’t visited North Korea since 20 ,000 but this is his fifth trip to Vietnam there’s a certain amount of trade the Vietnamese military still largely uses Russian kit but also there’s Russian oil and gas interests in in play here so you know although Vietnam is much more engage with trade with United States with Europe with China nonetheless this is actually a rather kind of productive partner and particularly what Putin is looking for is kind of those sort of bridge countries which will actually allow to still engage with the global economic system without actually having to try and back down and sort of essentially do the kind of things like pulling out of Ukraine that the West will require before sanctions can be lifted and with North Korea with them giving him all of that ammunition that is literally Putin giving them cash because they need cash well what they actually particularly need is is food I mean there there a lot of this is actually really barter more than anything else cuz you know in some ways what can North Korea do with money it can’t buy anything anywhere because of all the various sanctions now what so what are the Russians are providing is is food it’s energy and also it’s probably technology North Koreans have just had a failed satellite launch and so the Russians are saying that they can help with the space program the problem is of course that the technology for a space program is very very similar to the technology for ballistic missile programs so there’s also a degree in which actually the Russians are helping the the North Koreans now and it’s interesting isn’t it what you were talking about the sort of message that Putin’s trying to give out to the world and presumably to some extent his own people at home that there might be an international warrant out for my arrest but you know what I can go where I like within reason yeah exactly and it’s quite interesting this morning I I was having a little little troll through the Russian media seeing how how this trip was being represented and look obviously it’s interesting that they they focus on the red carpet treatment and so forth but it’s interesting also the degree to which they’re focusing on Western coverage and so they being to say look you see the West is actually rattled by this the West is scared the West is bothered by the fact that its attempts to isolate us are failing so it’s also an attempt to try and reassure the Russians don’t worry things may look tough but in fact we are still in the ascendant is he popular at home this is always one of these difficult questions to ask you got a weird situation his approval ratings are around the 80% his trust ratings are around the 30% and in some ways this is because there’s two putins Putin the icon of Russia who still is quite popular but Putin the human being the politician I think is increasingly regarded as an out of touch old man but the point is so long as there’s no one else to compare him with in some ways Russians know that they’re stuck with him he’s like the weather you just endure should we read into Putin’s decision to visit these two countries as being him planning something else taking a different strategy or is this just a continuation of of what he’s been doing particular when we’re thinking about Ukraine and things I mean people worry don’t there that other countries could be invaded this could be the start of Russia’s plan to do something else look I think the chances of Russia invading anywhere else are pretty minimal I mean let’s be honest 97% of their ground forces are currently engaged or operational ground forces are currently engaged with the struggle in Ukraine and they’re not winning there except very very slowly incrementally a kilometer here a kilometer there so they just simply don’t have the resources to engage in any other military Adventures even if they wanted to now what what this is is really part of Putin’s wider strategy to try and build some kind of alternative World Order you know he he has the kind of the all the structures of of the world as he sees it AR raay against him so he’s trying to piece together alliances and connections to give him some kind of alternative and it’s interesting that Vietnam for example is even now apparently thinking about joining the bricks economic block so it’s not as if they’re going to abandon their links with the west but a lot of countries frankly in the in in in the world don’t really want to join one side or another they want to be able to basically play both sides and that’s what Putin’s trying to encourage and you know we’ve had one text coming in here which was exactly the question I wanted to ask you what is there a danger from Vietnam’s perspective that the West would slap sanctions on them for cooperating with Putin yes absolutely and this is why countries like Vietnam are having to operate very very sort of carefully and although there’s talk of for example new gas deals with novere tech big Russian company or Ross atom the national nuclear energy company to provide some kind of or build some kind of Center there it’s clear that the Vietnamese are being very cautious but this is the thing they’re not in a position like China that in a way knows that there only only so far the West will go with them so I I think this is it Putin Putin’s in a weak position he’s playing a weak position quite well but when it comes down to it Vietnam most other countries in the world they’re not going to outright Ally with Russia for that very reason always good speak to you thank you so much we learn so much when we talk to you I’m really grateful for you speaking to us this morning that is Russia analyst and author Mark gallotti his latest book downfall follows the career of the multi-millionaire Russian businessman and head of the Vagner mercenary Army yevi progan you remember him he was killed in a plane crash last year [Music] [Music] go [Music] the [Music] [Music] [Music] VI [Music] [Music] fore [Music] [Music] foree for

“Putin’s in a weak position.”

Vietnam is “very cautious” about allying with Russia, despite Putin’s expectation that they would support his invasion of Ukraine due to their historic relationship, explains Mark Galeotti.

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