Putin’s Kharkiv push fails to materialise as Ukraine begins retaking ground | Maj. Gen. Rupert Jones

Putin’s Kharkiv push fails to materialise as Ukraine begins retaking ground | Maj. Gen. Rupert Jones

thinking was you know the analysts were saying I think quite rightly that what the Russians will be trying to do is open up up a new front in the north so you then draw ukrainians reserves to defend in the north and having pulled the reserves you then attack attack elsewhere the Russians have simply not managed to do that so so the kind of the the full up attacks just haven’t really come so you know we’re in a situation now where the KH offensive as seems to have I mean it hardly took any ground in in real terms and the ukrainians now seem to kind of be slowly pushing them back so go back to your original question lack of lack of command quality right at the top all the way through to just poor soldiers on the ground who’s who’s who aren’t good enough and whose heart isn’t in the fight hello and welcome to Frontline for times radio I’m James Hanson and today we’re talking about the latest on the war in Ukraine and I’m delighted to be joined by a regular guest here on front line Major General Reaper Jones who was pre viously the UK’s most senior commander in Iraq and Joint L Coalition forces against Isis in Iraq rup it always a pleasure welcome back James just like to be with you thank you to begin the head of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence General buinov says Western military aid is arriving in Ukraine now but it’s unlikely to arrive at a scale that will significantly impact the situation on the front line until mid to late July from a logistical point of view why does it take so long for military aid to be delivered and deployed yeah I think this is a really important statement I mean it actually dates from an interview about 10 days ago um so the comments a little bit out of date but they’ve only just been been published in the in the last couple of days um so it is significant because it gives a real insight into that whatever it was 61 billion US dollars worth of Aid and how it flows into Ukraine I’ll come back to that in a second why why does it take take so long well the Americans made great stall of the fact as soon as the money was authorized some initial flew immediately but it but of course it was really tokenistic but but the reality is that the military hardware is you know incredibly you know it it’s heavy it takes time to move it’s got to be pulled out of warehous it’s got to be sourced you know this stuff isn’t just sitting you know ready ready to be used around the world you know one of the things that the Ukraine conflict has brought into start relief for if you like people who don’t ordinarily focus on Military matters is the fact that Western Nations do not have large stockpiles anymore we military professionals have always known this we’ve been saying it for a very long time you go back to the kind of post cold world peace dividend if if you like those stock PS were were written right down because stock piles firstly uh smart Munitions are extremely expensive but secondly stock piles are expensive and weapons Munitions have a shelf life so you make them they sit on a shelf and they’re not used and then they have to be this used in training so it’s a very very expensive game and quite understandbly government the taxpayer doesn’t like to see it money used used in that way but there is a price you pay because your stock PS are essentially an insurance policy so so go back to your kind of original question you know the reality is that there are not you know endless supplies of these munition sitting in warehouses in the United States waiting waiting be to be used so that’s that’s part of the delay then it’s it’s the mere it’s the logistics and indeed the supporting bureaucracy that that just takes time and and when buinov says it might be mid to late July that that we see an impact on the front line what do you think that that impact will look like how will it help the ukrainians on the ground yeah well he’s already given a little bit of an Insight because as part of that same interview he uh he made the point that Russian Artillery advantage that had been in recent months about seven to one by which we mean for every seven shells the Russians fired at Ukraine the ukrainians were only able to fire one in return you you don’t need to be a military professional to recognize that that’s really bad news you know you’re just you’re just being outgunned all of the time bov has said that already the flow of us Aid uh has has changed that ratio from 7 to one to 5 to one so begins to give you a pointer and highlights that degree to which the ukrainians have just lacked Munitions they’ve lacked artillery shells to really take the fight uh to to the Russians so so that’s really important but if like that is that’s just Munitions we know there’s also long range uh Weaponry we’ll come we can come back to that later but then take ourselves all the way back to uh 2022 and you know the the aid that was delayed through that first that first winter and and then the spring offensive that never really materialized in 2023 why was that it was because the aid the material came too too late and again you know you can’t just take a piece of equipment and it becomes a piece of War you’ve got to receive it you’ve got to train on it you’ve got to integrate it You’ got to have all the supplies so from receiving a truck an armor personnel carrier whatever the you know an artillery piece whatever it might be from it arriving at a dock at at an air airport for example to it them being deployed on the battlefield as genuinely integrated military capability takes time and again this is the real calculus I think that’s going on in Ukraine at the moment is you know Russia trying to use 2024 to decisive Advantage they’re not achieving that so far and Ukraine then lining up okay when can they when will they be ready with all of this Aid to then use it in a decisive way they can deploy artillery shells readily but but the real Hardware you know the f-16s coming at some point when does that all begin to give them you know the full Orchestra of War to to go to go again and really begin to try and change the calculus on the battlefield and we’ll come back to that point and when Ukraine May for example be able to launch a new counter offensive in a moment you said something really interesting there ruper about the fact that Russia so far has not been able to to use the advantages it’s had in 2024 in terms of delayed Western military for Ukraine to a decisive Advantage why is that yeah it’s really interesting isn’t it because you know it it started to feel a little bit gloomy you back into 23 early into into 24 as the Ukrainian Advantage you know they they throughout 23 although they weren’t making decisive gains it still felt as they just about had the advantage they were making most of the of the plays if if you like and slowly that Ed away and the Russians started to make make some moves and it felt as though they might just slowly almost overwhelm the ukrainians through attrition just slowly bludging The Way Way Forward they haven’t been able to do that so why well firstly because the ukrainians continued be exceedingly resilient Defenders they just absorb this stuff they’re defending very well they’re making an absolute art of you know the limited resources they’ve got that that’s thing one thing two that the Russian milit throughout the the hierarchy are simply not good enough so you know there soldiers on the ground poorly trained low morale poor discipline and they know that they their their chance of survival as individuals are very very low so their fighting Pras down on the battlefield is extremely low that that continues to be the case but what they have also failed to do throughout the war is to really really bring smart plays you think of an American football team you know often it’s about I’m no expert it’s often about the the quality of the plays the moves they Deploy on the field Russia has had no plays all it has been able to dra out throughout the war really from you know the end of month one when the war started the initial front lines started to stabilize is to bludgeon the ukrainians suffer enormous attrition in doing so use huge amounts of artillery but trying and just bludgeon their way forward they don’t they don’t appear to have and they have not appeared to have any kind of really smart moves in their pocket so when when the attack came in h h in in the north whenever that was in in May the thinking was you know the analysts were saying I think quite rightly that what the Russians would be trying to do is open up up a new front in the north so you then draw ukrainians reserves to defend in the north and having pulled the reserves you then attack attack elsewhere it’s a fairly it’s a fairly classic military play you try and get the defender moving in lots of different directions to to block and then somewhere along the line the attacker finds a point of weakness and and they go through and you overwhelm their their defenses a a good Ploy fairly fairly fairly stand it’s quite hard to defend against the Russians have simp not managed to do that so so the kind of the the full up attacks just haven’t really come so you know we’re in a situation now where the har offensive seems to have I mean it hardly took any ground in in real terms and the ukrainians now seem to kind of be slowly pushing them back so go back to your original question lack of lack of command quality right at the top all the way through to just poor soldiers on the ground who’s who’s who aren’t good enough and whose heart isn’t in the fight well that brings us on I suppose to to what Ukraine could do to take advantage of the situation and potentially launch a counter offensive I mean first of all there’s the question of of when most people seem to think we’re looking at 2025 until there’s a realistic counter offensive do you agree with that yeah I mean you know I I always say with these things you know we none of us commentators have any inside uh track the ukrainians very wisely have have tended to be quite um cautious in what they’ve shared with the public when they have shared it uh sensibly it hasn’t always been you know the the the facts they’ve been they’ve been using information and disinformation because they want they want surprise on on the battlefield so so we’re speculating we’re trying to join dots but the dots would suggest that 2025 you know spring of 2025 would seem sensible because we know what happened in 2023 have already discussed it uh today about how you know when they didn’t get the resources from Western Nations until too late they weren’t able to pull it together into into the full Orchestra of War I think the lesson they will have learned is that we’ve got to get all this Aid we’ve got to get ourselves in in really good order absorb you know what Russia can throw at us through 2024 and then go in 2025 you they don’t appear to be on the cusper vending now you know we’re in the height of Summer there’s still you know you know multiple months left of if you like of of good weather but it would feel as though that they’re not losing um significant train in 2024 so it doesn’t feel as though they’re under huge um operational pressure to make an early move so I would have thought they will hold till 2025 you know again there’s a bit of politics bit of global politics us election and other things webly might come back to you what other you know politicians are saying outside of Ukraine potentially unhelpfully but it feels as though they they’ve got a little bit of time on the hand so you know based on what I know 2025 seem seems a reasonable bet at this stage and of course what would be helpful for the ukrainians is if they were able to use the rest of 20124 to hollow out some of Russia’s military capabilities in particular by striking targets inside Russia military targets inside Russia and obviously the US has removed some of the restrictions on that front but but not entirely how much of a limitation is that the fact that America is still placing restrictions on Military targets that Ukraine is allowed to strike inside Russian territory yeah I I I don’t think we should underestimate that um it you know so the exact wording uh is a little bit difficult to to Define um you know you kind of read different statements I’m sure there’s a there’s a document that’s been given to the ukrainians telling them exactly what what the requirement is but but essentially you know in layman’s terms they are being allowed to strike with us uh Weaponry into Russia against targets that are involved in or overtly preparing for attacks against Ukraine so you know if a um for sake of argument you know an a Russian Artillery battery is engaged in firing into Ukraine then that be that would be legitimate but what it prevents you doing is striking uh into logistic supply depos for example striking headquarters for example striking deep into Russia into you know the panoply of war that is preparing long-term preparing to to come into Ukraine so it is you know it is a pretty significant restriction still I personally find it um pretty hard to justify but it is the it’s the position uh America continues to take and so president ziny has to run with that can persuade them them otherwise you know I think again you know as and when you know we we start getting into the grounds of major Ukrainian offensive operations hopefully the f-16s coming online I think I think the West has got to be very very careful of leaving in place some of these restrictions because we’ve seen what happens you know the West is every bit as much to blame that nothing happened in in 2023 as the Ukraine I are and I think we could ask ourselves some pretty searching questions about how many more shackles we’re going to leave in place when the ukrainians uh get go onto the offense again if you like learning about defense history and Global Security you can watch superpowers on the times radio YouTube channel and this is what I can’t get my head around I mean it is surely in the interests of Ukraine supporters in the West for Ukraine to win this war War sooner rather than later if you’re President Biden sitting in the White House in an election year if he can say in November okay even if all restrictions are removed it was would be unlikely that Ukraine would have won the war by them but if you can point to significant progress being made or a sense of optimism on the Ukrainian side compared to Russia surely that would be in his interest that would work that would be better for him politically so can can you make sense of it at all Rus it’s really hard to isn’t it you know go back in time we understand you where some of these restrictions came from you know back in 2022 into 2023 do we provide tanks do we not do we provide fast Jets do we not you know it was all wrapped up in a concern amongst Western Nations and in NATO about what was perceived to be you potential to escalate you know where where’s where are does Putin have some red lines where are those red lines are we inly crossing the those red lines and that’s where that that you long-standing debate came from and over time it became clear to to leaders that Putin’s threats of escalation were just threats um and you never say never but Putin hasn’t really stepped up he hasn’t spread the conflict Beyond Ukraine and and that is why decisions were taken about tanks about longrange fires about about fast Jets so so you have to assume that the American decision is still based somewhere around that wider um escalation C culation there may be you know other discussions going on inside the state dep Department in Washington inside the Department of Defense inside the White House that is more nuanced than that but as best as we can un understand it still seems to be a concern around that that escalation calculus calculus I find that quite hard because as you say it is in everybody’s interest for this war to progress at a at a good good rate you know political will in all of our Nations is probably the biggest threat that that zalinski faces and so speed is of the essence and and zalinski knows that talking of political will obviously support for Ukraine is a very live issue in the US presidential election here in the UK there has been until now broadly speaking cross-party support for funding Ukrainian military aid and and and standing steadfastly behind Ukraine but we’ve had in the last few days some controversial comments by Nigel farage who’s the leader of the populist reform K party here in Briston big Ally of Donald Trump and okay he would argue he is behind Ukraine but he made some very controversial comments saying that the expansion of NATO and the EU eastwards had provoked Russia into invading Ukraine he’s received a lot of criticism here in Britain for those comments what is your reaction uh he deserves every answer criticism he receives you he’s now you know in his doubling down his in his little war of words with Boris Johnson he’s now saying and oh by the way you know we we need to get have a a peace conversation zinsky needs to come to come and talk talk peace I if I’m totally honest I think farage’s comments are despicable because they say nothing about what is going on in the war he is making those comments solely for UK domestic political gain hey as a military person I find that distasteful in the extreme he’s making political Capital purely for his own edification to try and gain more votes for the for the Reform Party he does real damage by doing so in Ukraine in in Russia the loser in this is Ukraine innocent ukrainians the Ukrainian Armed Forces it emboldens Putin and I I find his words deeply distasteful because he has you know he he’s not elected uh he’s is as say he’s making pure electoral Capital at the Ukraine’s expense as a as a military professional I I find that disgraceful uh and I and furthermore it displays his total lack of understanding of geopolitics uh and if he thinks that that somehow putting Putin to a negotiating table ends well for anybody be it NATO the West Ukraine he really needs to go and study his history books and it is it is something that you know Ukraine somehow always has to to to justify its existence and come up against despite the fact it’s a sovereign independent nation if it wants to be a member of the EU if it wants to be a member of NATO it is as justified in being so as France or Germany or wherever absolutely right and and and to be fair to Western leaders you know they have been consistent about this haven’t they you know the EU they’ve just you have just you know introduced another round of of sanctions you know and and you know I think the kind of watch word that that these global leaders are sticking to is is what you just talk to you know Ukraine is a sovereign state if we believe the international rules based system then Ukraine has the absolute right to defend its territory and not just its territory lost since 2022 but the territory that was lost in 2014 and president zinsky continues to say that is the ultimate headmark for him now whether he ever achieves that is a sub is a separate conversation but he’s absolutely legally right to say that that is is his objective um and you know for me as say anybody who is kind of claiming otherwise the the second and third order implications of beginning to say n well you sovereignty doesn’t really matter I mean that’s a that’s a really that’s a really dangerous conversation to have you know we’ve just had the you know the 80th Ann iiv of D-Day thank God there were world leaders uh and men and women who who understood the important importance of of sovereignty the importance of Liberty and fought for those things and to bring us back to our earlier conversation about Western military aid I mean if longterm I was really struck you said there rert that longterm one of the big dangers for Ukraine is is a sort of crumbling of of political support for Ukraine in the west given that is it not imperative for the West to double down on its military aid and potentially go well look we don’t want Ukraine to have a shortfall in six months time they might be starting to receive the latest delivery we need to be doubling down providing even more Aid providing more longrange attackers allowing them to strike the curch bridge whatever it may be absolutely right you know so so as and when you know at some point this will will come to an end who knows how in in you know some kind of you know it could be a it could be a a peace settlement it could be just facts on the ground stabilized and it kind of slowly comes to Halt who knows but but the key for Ukraine is to be in a strong a military position as possible when the Music Stops you know he who he who dominates events on the ground takes the spoils you know so they got to be in a stronger position as possible when that happens which as you say plays to give the military aid allow Ukrainian forces to get as as a stronger position uh as they can you know the peace conversation of course is is interesting because you know president zinski last week held his his peace Summit I think that very very important um you not not everybody was there but the mere fact that it happened was I I think important because it’s just beginning to you know uh lay the pathway allow those those conversations to happen but of course President Putin you know he’s an arch wrecker you know so you know so his you know before peace Summit him putting out you know almost a a an offer on the table um for for Ukraine that offer was essentially total Ukrainian capitulation but he but he’s but he’s clever because people people will go apologists will go the fages of the world will go well look you know President Putin’s trying to trying to bring this to an end end you know he’s trying to he’s trying to do the do the right thing and what is so frustrating is that people fall into that trap they can’t see Putin for who he is what he is what is track record is and and the game and I use the word game advisedly that he is playing I just wanted to ask you rub but about some interesting reports I The Institute for the study of War saying that the Kremlin is continuing efforts to recruit former Vagner mercenaries uh is passing a new bill apparently that’s going to exempt many of those involved in the attempted Mutiny of of last year and and and you know when when you think about that it does beg the question is is that a sign of Putin’s desperation that he’s having to recruit people who a year ago were working towards overthrowing him yeah I mean I I think absolutely what was it June 24th so you we a year and two days after Ban’s um uh failed march on Moscow um and yeah I mean I think it AB is a sign of desperation but we’ve seen see those signs of desperation all over so you know uh we know he’s short of Fighters to be fair to pran the Vagner Fighters were you know more effective than than many others so you can see why Putin would want to bring those into the fold Putin is in a in a desperate position you know the international criminal court has just brought um uh warrants against his old defense minister and his old uh CH Chief defense the EU continued bring bring sanctions you know things are not going well for Putin in in real terms and so I think all these things are a sign of desperation the fact he’s coing up to North Korea you know doesn’t exactly uh bode well for you know where where where Putin is in the greatest scheme of things the fact that you the attack uh in dagistan three days ago you know he tries to blame on on Ukraine and Nat I mean you know it it’s it would appear to be the the rantings of a lunatic except of course it’s not you know it’s very deliberate plays it’s very deliberate misinformation that in this Global era of you know digital news you the news is omnipresent anybody can kind of make the news a sizable minority will believe those sort of conspiracies that it’s not is uh who who did this that it is somehow it’s Ukraine it’s it’s NATO it plays in the farage type comments of NATO provoking you it’s all of that kind of conspiracy based um version of news how would you assess Putin’s position domestically internally within Russia I mean just thinking back to that Mutiny as you say literally just over a year ago there was a lot of speculation that that he could be sort of teetering in his position in the Kremlin since then of course he appears to have stabilized things Russia have made some advances on the ground he won quote unquote his reelection earlier this year are we maybe guilty of assuming he is he is more secure than he is in his position yeah so hard to tell isn’t it um you know one would hope that that intelligence agencies have a better in inside track though penetrating you know Putin’s Inner Circle to really understand what’s going on is has always been hard hard and I you know you know so so it’s it’s hard to know and again we and you know media commentators were were speculating and trying to kind of read signals but it does feel as though uh he is more secure than he was a year ago um even at the time of you know pran’s uh Uprising you know most people are saying slightly careful what you wish for because if Putin did fall you know what would happen internally in Moscow who would take his place would there be some kind of you know internal blood letting um so you know caution uh is he certainly appears to be more secure than he was but it’s very hard very hard to tell um you know he’s he’s got rid of two of his great laal lists as I mention earlier um Shu and gasimov his defense minister and chief defense they they’ve gone um but but he’s but he’s a great Survivor isn’t he um so I you know given UK current political um betting scandals I I should sure wouldn’t be betting on on Putin uh going or or staying Major General rer Jones it’s always a pleasure thank you so much for your time today on front line likewise James thanks so much thank you for watching Frontline for times radio for more on Global Security and the war in Ukraine you can listen to times radio take take out a digital subscription to the times and click subscribe on our YouTube channel

“The Russian military throughout their hierarchy are simply not good enough.”

Ukrainian troops appear to be regaining ground in the North around Kharkiv after Putin’s offensive collapsed, Maj. Gen. Rupert Jones tells Frontline

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