Irans einziger gemäßigter Präsidentschaftskandidat liegt überraschend in Umfragen vorn

24 comments

1. ***The Telegraph reports:***

   Iran’s only moderate candidate for president is leading in the latest polls, prompting panic among hardliners.

   Masoud Pezeskhian, a surgeon with reformist leanings, is in front with 33.1 per cent of the vote ahead of the ballot on Friday, according to a survey released by Iran’s government-funded ISPA organisation on Wednesday.

   Mr Pezeshkian has benefited from a surge in support from voters desperate to snub the regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, although his liberal credentials are only lukewarm.

   The poll revealed that 28.8 per cent of respondents back Saeed Jalili, a hardline former nuclear negotiator, while 19.1 per cent favour Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC).

   On Thursday, two ultra-conservative candidates pulled out in an effort to consolidate the hard-line vote and keep Mr Pezeshkian out of power.

   As he withdrew, Alireza Zakani, Tehran’s mayor, urged Mr Jalili and Mr Ghalibaf to unite behind a single campaign.

   IRGC officials told The Telegraph that Mr Pezeshkian was allowed on the ballot simply to “legitimise” the vote – boosting turn-out in an election certain to be won by a hardliner.

   But the possibility remains that a surge in support from hard-up, liberal Iranians could upend the regime’s plans, forcing it to either engage in more invasive rigging than usual or accept an unwelcome president.

   Iran’s Guardian Council disqualified 74 candidates for the vote, which was triggered by the death in a helicopter crash of Ebrahim Raisi, the president, last month. That purge took care of all moderates bar Mr Pezeshkian.

   “The council has no role, they take the list to Mr Khamenei and he decides,” Mohsen Sazegara, one of the founders of the the IRGC who defected in 2003, told The Telegraph.

   **Full story:** [**https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/27/irans-only-moderate-presidential-candidate-takes-poll-lead/**](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/27/irans-only-moderate-presidential-candidate-takes-poll-lead/)

2. Everything is relative. Religious leaders rule the country, presidents don’t have that much power in Iran. His candidacy for the election was approved by the council of guardians, consisting of ultra conservative religious leaders, so take ‘moderate’ with a large piece of salt. If won’t be the worst choice if he’s elected, but it would probably just be a way to try to appease the population.

3. Being a moderate in Iran only means you’re not as outwardly hostile in your statements compared to others. Actual policy doesn’t change.

4. We all know that the majority of Iranians want to live in a normal country again. I feel bad for them, especially the women.

5. All it really does is change how openly the election needs to be rigged.

   Still, that isn’t nothing. Change can proceed surprisingly quickly when people reach a critical mass of “common knowledge” about a regime’s illegitimacy. The Ayatollahs have never quite managed to stamp out the institutional memory of a democratic Iran, so they keep having to thread the needle. Sooner or later they will screw up.

6. Wait, there is going to be a real election?

7. If he really is “moderate”, and i highly doubt that, the hard liners will kill him.

8. how much longer do you think before he suffers from defenestration?

9. The only thing I find surprising is that people find it surprising.

   Every ! Election in Iran that was remotely fair with some sort of actual choice the reformist candidate usually won. Chatami, Rohani to mention.

10. My Iranian expat friend (by the way Iranian expats can vote by mail) said that it’s not true that the president is powerless. There is some pushing back and forth between the ayatollahs and the government and both are under the Supreme Court.

11. Reminder that to even be a presidential candidate in Iran you need the formal approval of the Guardian Council. It’s simply impossible for a grassroots dark horse candidate to gain power under their system of government.

12. Headline tomorrow will be that he removed himself from the election.

13. The moderate would have won the last time too as helicopter boy lost his prior election to the moderate candidate.

    The Ayatollah had to rig the next one to ensure his preferred successor got the spotlight and the people to accept him as leader.

    Fortunately the mountainside didn’t care about any of that.

14. Meaningless. Only the supreme leader truly rules.

15. Irans such a weird case. We’re likely to end up on an armed conflict with them sooner rather than later but the people are pretty anti-regime.

    The civilian population from what I read if they had a democracy could end up very westernized but instead a bunch of religious fanatics rule with an iron fist. It’s really depressing

16. If I was in his position, I would count my days.

17. *Surprise win. Iran becomes a moderate democracy. That simple.*
    Then I woke up.

18. Over/under on falling out of a window?

19. Moderate or not he still had to be approved by the clerical fascist leaders before getting on the ballot. Theocracy needs to end everywhere.

20. Define “moderate” in Iran.

21. President doesn’t matter ayatollah runs things

22. And in breaking news he was arrested for breaking some religious code and unable to run for president.

23. What does moderate mean in this context? These words have no meaning to me lol
    Moderate as in a us context?
    Moderate for Iran?

24. Would be a real sliding doors moment if Iran becomes a democracy and US slides into a fascist dictatorship under Trump. Nothing lasts forever does it.