Why Putin’s troops failed to press the advantage in his Kharkiv push | Maj. Gen. Rupert Jones

Why Putin’s troops failed to press the advantage in his Kharkiv push | Maj. Gen. Rupert Jones

you know it it started to feel a little bit gloomy you back into 23 early into into 24 as the Ukrainian Advantage you know they they throughout 23 although they weren’t making decisive gains it still felt as they just about had the advantage they were making most of the of the plays if if you like and slowly that Ed away and the Russians started to make make some moves and it felt as though they might just slowly almost overwhelm the ukrainians through attrition just slowly bludging the way way forward they haven’t been able to do that so why well firstly because the ukrainians contined to be exceedingly resilient Defenders they just absorb this stuff they’re defending very well they’re making an absolute art of you know the limited resources they’ve got that that’s thing one thing two that the Russian military throughout the the hierarchy are simply not good enough so you know there soldiers on the ground poorly trained low morale poor discipline and they know that they their their chance of survival as individuals are very very low so their fighting Pras down on the battlefield is extremely low that that continues to be the case but what they have also failed to do throughout the war is to really bring smart plays you think of an American football team you know often it’s about I’m no expert it’s often about the the quality of the plays the moves they Deploy on the field Russia has had no plays all it has been able to D dout throughout the war really from you know the end of month one when the war started the initial front line started to stabilize is to bludgeon the ukrainians suffer enormous attrition in doing so use huge amounts of artillery but try and just bludgeon their way forward they don’t they don’t appear to have and they have not appeared to have any kind of really smart moves in their pocket so when when the attack came in h h in in the north whenever that was in in May the thinking was you know the analysts were saying I think quite rightly that what the Russians will be trying to do is open up up a new front in the north so you then draw ukrainians reserves to defend in the north and having pulled the reserves you then attack attack elsewhere it’s a fairly it’s a fairly classic military play you try and get the defender moving in lots of different directions to to block and then somewhere along the line the attacker finds a point of weakness and and they go through and you overwhelm their their defenses a a good Ploy fairly fairly fairly stand it’s quite hard to defend against the Russians have simply not managed to do that so so the kind of the the full up attacks just haven’t really come so you know in a situation now where the offensive seems to I mean it hardly took any ground in in real terms and the ukrainians now seem to kind of be slowly pushing them back so go back to your original question lack of lack of command quality right at the top all way through to just poor soldiers on the ground who’s who’s who aren’t good enough and whose heart isn’t in the fight well that brings us on I suppose to to what Ukraine could do to take advantage of the situation and potentially launch a counter offensive I mean first of all there’s the question of of when most people seem to think we’re looking at 2025 until there’s a realistic counter offensive do you agree with that yeah I mean you know I I always say with these things you know we none of us commentators have any inside uh track the ukrainians very wisely have tended to be quite um cautious in what they’ve shared with the public when they have shared it uh sensibly it hasn’t always been you know the the facts they’ve been they’ve been using information and disinformation because they want they want surprise on on the battlefield so so we’re speculating we’re trying to join dots but the dots would suggest that 2025 you know spring of 2025 would seem sensible because we know what happened in 2023 I’ve already discussed it uh today about how you know when they didn’t get the resources from Western Nations until too late they weren’t able to put pull it together into into the full Orchestra of War I think the lesson they will have learned is that we’ve got to get all this Aid we’ve got to get ourselves in in really good order absorb you know what Russia can throw at us through 2024 and then go in 2025 you know they don’t appear to be on the cusper ending now you know we in the height of Summer there’s still you know you know multiple months left of if you like of of good weather but it would feel as though that they’re not losing um significant train in 2024 so it doesn’t feel as that they’re under huge um operational pressure to make an early move so I would have thought they will hold till 2025 you know again there’s a bit of politics bit of global politics us election and other things webly might come back to you what other you know politicians are saying outside of Ukraine potentially unhelpfully but it feels as though they they’ve got a little bit of time on the hand so you know based on what I know 2025 seem seems a reasonable bet at this stage and of course I just wanted to ask you Ruben about some interesting reports I The Institute for the study of War saying that the Kremlin is continuing efforts to recruit former Vagner mercenaries uh is passing a new bill apparently that’s going to exempt many of those involved in the attempted Mutiny of of last year and and and you know when when you think about that it does beg the question is is that a sign of Putin’s desperation that he’s having to recruit people who a year ago were working towards overthrowing him yeah I mean I I think absolutely what was it June 24th so you we’re a year and two days after Ban’s um uh failed march on Moscow um and yeah I mean I think it ABS is a sign of desperation but we’ve seen see those signs of desperation all over so you know uh we know he short of Fighters to be fair to prosan the Vagner Fighters were you know more effective than than many others so you can see why Putin would want to bring those into the fold Putin is in a in a desperate position you know the international criminal court has just brought um uh warrants against his old defense minister and his old uh chief chief defense the EU continu bring bring sanctions you know things are not going well for Putin in in real terms and so I think all these things are a sign of desperation the fact he’s coing up to nor nor Korea you know doesn’t exactly uh bode well for you know where where where Putin is in the greatest scheme of things the fact that you know the attack uh in dagistan three days ago you know he tries to blame on on Ukraine and Nate I mean you know it it’s it would appear to be the the rantings of a lunatic except of course it’s not you know it’s very deliberate plays it’s very deliberate misinformation that in this Global era of you know digital news you the news is omnipresent anybody can kind of make the news a sizable minority will believe those sort of conspiracies that it’s not is uh who who did this that it is somehow it’s Ukraine it’s it’s NATO it plays into this farage type comments of NATO provoking you it’s all of that kind of conspiracy based um version of news how would you assess Putin’s position domestically internally within Russia I mean just thinking back to that Mutiny as you say literally just over a year ago there was a lot of speculation that that he could be sort of teetering in his position in the Kremlin since then of course he appears to have stabilized things Russia has have made some advances on the ground he won quote unquote his reelection earlier this year are we maybe guilty of assuming he is he is more secure than he is in his position yeah so hard to tell isn’t it um you know one would hope that that intelligence agencies have a better in inside track though penetrating you know Putin’s Inner Circle to really understand what’s going on is has always been hard and I assume you know you know so so it’s it’s hard to know and again we and you know media commentators were spec culating and trying to kind of read signals but it does feel as though uh he is more secure than he was a year ago um even at the time of you know pran’s uh Uprising you know most people were saying slightly careful what you wish for because if Putin did fall you know what would happen internally in Moscow who would take his place would there be some kind of you know internal blood letting um so you know caution uh is he certainly appears to be more secure than he was but it’s very hard very hard to tell um you know he’s he’s got rid of two of his great laal lists as I mentioned earlier um shyu and gasimov his defense minister Chief defense they they’ve gone um but but he’s but he’s a great Survivor isn’t he um so I you know given UK current political um betting scandals I I should sure wouldn’t be betting on on Putin going or or staying thank you for watching Frontline for times radio for more 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Russian troops lack the strategy and training to push home their objectives in Putin’s offensive in the north of Ukraine, Maj. Gen. Rupert Jones tells Frontline.

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