The DUP is failing to make up ground ahead of next week's Westminster election, according to a new LucidTalk poll
Support for Alliance, the SDLP and UUP has risen slightly, with Sinn Fein and the TUV down.
On 23%, Michelle O’Neill’s party has dropped one point from a fortnight ago, and three points since the election was called.The DUP is unchanged on 21%, suggesting some of its seats are at serious risk as Northern Ireland goes to the polls next Thursday unless it rapidly starts to turn the situation around.
Gavin Robinson’s party is polling a massive 10 points lower than its last Westminster election performance.Alliance is in third spot on 18%, up one point since two weeks ago, and three points since the election was called. With Naomi Long’s party on the rise, its battles with the DUP in key constituencies like East Belfast and Lagan Valley are on a knife-edge.
On 14%, the SDLP is up one point since a fortnight ago, and four points since the election was called. The increase in support is good news for Claire Hanna in South Belfast and Mid-Down and, particularly, for Colum Eastwood in Foyle.
The UUP is on 13%, up one point from LucidTalk’s last poll, but is unchanged from the start of the general election campaign.
Former health minister Robin Swann is the bookies’ favourite to unseat DUP MP Paul Girvan in South Antrim, while Robbie Butler is challenging for a seat in Lagan Valley and Colonel Tim Collins for one in North Down.
On 4%, the TUV is down one point from a fortnight ago, and its support has halved since the Westminster election was called, although the drop is partly explained by the party not running in four constituencies.
The Greens, People Before Profit and Aontu are all unchanged on 1%, while others and independents are down one point to 4%.
Some 3,859 people took part in our online poll conducted from June 24 to 25. The sample was scientifically weighted to reflect the Northern Ireland population.
Participants were presented with the candidates standing in their own constituency.
The overall vote share reflects the fact Sinn Fein is not running in four constituencies, and the DUP is standing aside in two.
The UUP is running everywhere, bar North Belfast, where it has minimal support, while Alliance and the SDLP are contesting all 18 constituencies.
Turnout will be crucial next Thursday in marginal constituencies where seats could be determined by a few hundred, or even dozen, votes.
With a low-key campaign by both Sinn Fein and the DUP, most people believe the 62% turnout of the last Westminster election will not be matched.
Some 59% said it would be lower, with just 18% predicting it would be higher and 20% believing it would be unchanged.
Significantly, more Alliance voters (62%) and nationalists (61%) believed it would be lower than unionists (56%).
In Britain, Labour is on course for a landslide win, and a majority in Northern Ireland also want to see a change of government at Westminster.
Some 52% of people believe that Sir Keir Starmer will make a better prime minister than Rishi Sunak (31%), while the rest are unsure or have no opinion.
The Labour leader is most popular with Alliance voters (82%) and nationalists (71%), with unionists (19%) the least keen on him.
DUP, UUP and TUV voters are fonder of the Conservative leader (37%) than of Sir Keir, although the greatest number of unionists (44%) are undecided or have no opinion on who would be best.
Mr Sunak is least popular with Sinn Fein and SDLP supporters (2%), followed by Alliance voters (4%).
However, not all nationalists are cheering for a Labour victory. More than a quarter of them are unsure or have no view on who should reside in Downing Street.
Sir Keir is more popular with younger voters (60%) than with the middle aged and pensioners (46%). He is better liked by the middle class (57%) than the working class (44%).
Women (55%) were also more likely than men (48%) to say he would do a better job than Mr Sunak.
Polling was carried out online from 1pm on June 24 to 8pm on June 25, using the established LucidTalk Northern Ireland online opinion panel (16,784 members), which is balanced to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland.
For this Westminster election poll, respondents were polled on an individual constituency basis (18 separate constituency polls).This meant each respondent was presented with their own constituency, and with the named candidates running in their constituency at the July 4 election.
All respondents were therefore placed in a ‘Westminster election only’ choice situation.
All collated data was then consolidated into one NI-wide vote-share forecast.
Some 3,859 full responses were received, and these were authenticated, audited, weighted and modelled into a 1,051 NI representative response data-set, which was used for analysis in terms of the final results.
Weighting was carried out by age, gender, socio-economic group, previous NI voting patterns, constituency, constitutional position, political-party support and religious affiliation to produce a robust Northern Ireland representative opinion sample.
All results are accurate in terms of being NI representative to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence.
LucidTalk is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its regulations. LucidTalk is the only NI and Ireland based polling and market research company which is a member of the British Polling Council.
by zoomanjo