Historian who predicted 9 of the last 10 election results says Democrats shouldn’t drop Joe Biden
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/30/lichtman-dems-replace-biden/74260967007/
Historian who predicted 9 of the last 10 election results says Democrats shouldn’t drop Joe Biden
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/30/lichtman-dems-replace-biden/74260967007/
34 comments
Debates don’t matter.
Read the actual article, pretty poor logic here. The guy doesn’t even have a prediction yet for 2024 and chalked the Biden’s mental lapses up to a “bad debate performance”.
The problem isn’t that there aren’t better candidates than Biden(there are plenty) the problem is how do you pick one of them, without the others making their own bid for it too?
Let’s say for example that Whitmer is the most electable candidate they could choose, but Newsome very well would have big money backers in California and definitely wants to run at the next opportunity because, if not it’s gonna be 8 years and he’ll probably be out of the limelight too long, and vice versa, not to mention if they passed up Kamala would she not be pissed and want to run anyways?
So now you’ve got a three way race, where it’s too late to run a primary, just let the them figure it out at the convention? Technically yeah. But now we piss off the electorate for not getting a say in who the candidate is. It’s one giant cluster fuck
But he hasn’t actually predicted Biden would win. That’s kind of the crux of the issue: can he win?
This guy’s model is flawed. He claims “debates are meaningless” without realizing that the debate wasn’t the actual problem. The actual problem is that the debate confirmed to America that Biden’s mental state is rapidly declining, which was previously just shrugged off as speculation and a “right wing talking point.” This wasn’t just a poor debate where one candidate had better zingers than the other. He was asked by a CNN host how a lack of confidence in the mental faculties of the candidate fits into his model and he had no answer
Said this in the other article but since Lichtman brought them up, how about the Biden administration have him submit to cognitive testing from actual doctors and then publish the results? If Lichtman thinks the lay people are overreacting from fear, have professionals put those fears to bed (I’d wager enough swing voters still care what a doctor says).
Biden is still the country’s best shot at avoiding becoming a Christian fascist state.
I’ll probably get downvoted for this l, but the people throwing their votes away for third parties or refusing to vote need to hear it: This is the last time you’re going to get help from normal white Americans. If Trump gets elected, they’re going to blend in with the rest of the magas and stop sticking their neck out at pride parades and stuff for you. The moderate white Christian democrats will not martyr their families during a 2nd Trump presidency for people that couldn’t be bothered to vote correctly. And I say correctly because there really is only one right choice.
Dems are scared and gave money and support. Undecided voters heard Trumps racism and moved to Biden.
Remember, you are not immune to propaganda
“the spineless Democrats”?
Yeah, this guy seems like a trustworthy academic.
Is the one investor out of a million that gets the richest better or luckier than the others? I wouldn’t listen to a guy that might have just been lucky.
**To those who do NOT want Trump to win:** IGNORE whatever you read and just go out and VOTE on election day!! Because, the smarter MAGAs will read this AND get others to vote for Trump!!
The DNC could self fund a caucus in a few key states to get a good idea of who they should pick, there’s also public opinion polls that can be done if Biden drops out. It’s not a great situation to be in, but we shouldn’t succumb to the sunk cost fallacy.
To get correct result for of 10 elections you have chance = 1/2^10*10=1/102.4
So if only a few thousand people made PREDICTIONS ABSOLUTELY RANDOMLY them DOZENS will be as successful
So… Unfortunately this means absolutely nothing, go AND VOTE LIKE NEVER BEFORE
In a perfect world Biden steps down, trump hears the news and dies of a heart attack out of excitement. Both these candidates are embarrassing and a bad look for America and its citizens.
Which serious Democrat would want to be catapulted in like this? Its way too late to replace him
That’s great and everything but this is the only time we’ve had a nominee in his 80’s who struggles to form a coherent sentence going against a total psychopath insurrectionist who has half the population indoctrinated in some strange cult, so I’m not sure historical precedent applies.
His smell probably was distracting Biden. His rambling would confuse anyone
My thing is, even for those who are mixed on who to vote for, why would you want to put a rapist, racist, fascist, misogynistic, lying CONVICTED FELON in office? People say our country is the laughing stock because of who our 2 presidential candidates are, but just imagine the more HUMILIATION that’ll occur if a convicted felon who’s facing potential jail time is elected for president for a SECOND TERM. I just don’t understand people’s mindset.
Voting Third-Party is LITERALLY just handing Trump the win because WE ALL KNOW that his MILLIONS OF MAGA cult followers will ride for him even AFTER the wheels fall off. People complain about Biden’s age and how he can’t articulate his words very well, but I would prefer him as my president even if he was as people describe him as an inarticulate walking corpse A MILLION MORE TIMES THAN I would EVER want a LYING RACIST RAPIST CONVICTED FELON like Trump as my president.
If it wasn’t Trump running, I would not vote for Biden. Democrats (and/or Biden) have done the nation a disservice by peddling this old guy. But, probably too late to change now. We will just sweat out the most important election of our lifetime til the vote with fingers crossed. Damn.
He gave Dana the business about CNN’s lack of fact checking and Dana was like “those are the terms they agreed to sir” and he responded “no, I was told there would be fact checking”. All weekend long on there: “should Biden drop out of the race?” CNN sucks so hard now, not that it was much better before, but still. They’re just after the clicks and Trump was great for business. They’re so dumb. If he wins what do you think he and his thugs will get rid of first? Unless they want to “Dear and Glorious Leader” all day for reporting. Tapper and Bash would do it.
The race for 2000 was most likely won by Gore.
This historian probably didn’t anticipate the level of cheap tactics that the Republicans were using to trick voters in Florida.
I think Biden is only running because he has the best chance to win, or so we thought….that debate was scary. Biden underperformed, and Trump looked better surface level, but had no substance, policies, or many truths in what he said. He can’t go without using absolutes or buzzwords. Everything is worst or best, and Biden was not able to rebuttable well with simple layups.
I don’t want a random historian to tell me we should have a geriatric in the presidency anymore or ever again
In which election was he wrong?
Litchman’s scale isn’t complete bogus, but doesn’t account for a million other factors. Just like early polling, it’s not reflective of what will happen on the day or the days in between.
I think Joe should step aside, even if he’s still passionate about being a public servant. Or at the very least they need to put Kamala in the spot light more and prepare a track out for him, whether resignation or passing – the job of the president isn’t easy, I wouldn’t be surprised if we woke up to the news that Biden passed in his sleep. Not wanting it but just acknowledging the facts at hand.
This really should be a wake up call to more people that we need age limits on politicians and that complacency gets us no where.
Biden is the incumbent. Why would you start a civil war within your own camp? Especially when dems absolutely need to win to avert the disaster that would be a second trump term.
Really it’s 10 out of 10 because Bush lost that election in 2000
If they don’t swap out Biden, then they had better make sure he’s VERY cognizant during the next debate. IMO there are no “undecided” voters. The “undecided” have already decided that both candidates suck so they opted not to vote – and it’s Biden’s job to convince ENOUGH of them to actually vote for him vs setting fire to Rome again.
High school graduate with the common sense of a wet sandwich (that’s me, btw) says the same thing
It’s too late anyway. A new candidate would be behind in fundraising, getting their name out there and whatever else.
He actually predicted 10 out 10 until the Supreme Court rat fucked the election
The media is just fucking addicted to clicks and will do anything for more of them. Dropping Biden over a single bad debate performance is stupid but I’m sure plastering those headlines is driving interaction like magic
He is right.
Biden’s performance sucked. It doesn’t really matter. Anyone not decided probably wasn’t watching because they don’t care or won’t care until November. This debate had the lowest ratings in over 50 years. Everyone knows who they are gonna vote for and they have known since 2020.
Of course not, this is the most idiotic shit. IN 2020 the biggest debate was oh oh oh, who can beat trump who can beat trump.
There’s one guy who did. And he’s got the incumbent advantage which is HUGE. especially for the vast majority of voters that do NOT watch stupid bullshit unmoderated debates on CNN.