Biden ‘to allow Pentagon contractors to deploy to Ukraine’ I Ukraine: The Latest, Podcast

Biden ‘to allow Pentagon contractors to deploy to Ukraine’ I Ukraine: The Latest, Podcast

I’m David noes and this is Ukraine the latest today we bring you updates from across the Battlefront analyze the appointment of former Dutch Pier Mark Rutter as the new head of NATO and we discuss reports that the Biden Administration is moving towards lifting a de facto ban on American Military contractors deploying to Ukraine Ry takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with Victory if we give president zalinski the tools the ukrainians will finish the job Slava ukraini nobody going to break us we’re strong we’re ukrainians it’s Wednesday the 26th of June 2 years and 128 days since the fullscale invasion began and today I’m joined by our associate editor Dominic Nichols an assistant comment editor Francis sternley I started by asking Dom for the latest news from Ukraine well thanks David and hello wherever you are so let’s start in Ukraine on the ground the Ukrainian attempts to collapse that Russian incursion north of H and the V Chans area has continued geolocated footage published Yesterday by The Institute the study of War shows continued marginal Advance by the ukrainians slowly pushing that lodgment out or collapsing it however it is very slow and marginal about the same we think as the sort of Russian efforts in the east in recent months but it is going in One Direction at the moment in V Chans elsewhere across the country a Russian missile attack on the southern city of adessa hit civilian infrastructure in the early hours of this morning this comes from Regional Governor early Hepper he said the attack damaged an administrative building in the industrial sector but caused no casualties then in the donbass Russian forces are attempting what’s been described as Relentless attacks on the strategically important town of chivar so Alexander who’s you first name only a platoon Commander from Ukraine’s 43rd Artillery Brigade said we work you could say without rest so no two days are alike you always need to be ready to work day and night he did say though that supplies of American ammunition started to arrive after the the $61 billion draw down elsewhere in the area in donet president zalinsky visited troops around the region uh he’s there today with his top military leadership in a statement on telegram Mr zalinski said he’d held detailed meetings on security with local military leaders talking about a number of different issues he said afterwards there will be a separate conversation in Kei particularly with officials who must be here and in other areas near the front line in difficult communities where people need Immediate Solutions solution that simply cannot be seen from ke and if those to whom he was directing these somewhat Barbed comments were not were not totally hadn’t got the message he said he was surprised to learn that some relevant officials had not been in the region for 6 months or more and he said there will be a serious conversation and I will draw appropriate conclusions regarding them sounds like someone’s heading for an interview without coffee as we used to call it in the Army now whilst he was there President zinski also praised the work that has resulted in the return yesterday of 90 Ukrainian um soldiers from Russian captivity among them were troops who defended marup the chernil nuclear power plant as well as soldiers from the National Guard and the Navy president zalinski said we remember all our people in Russian captivity we continue our work for the release of everyone we seek the truth about everyone who may be held by the Enemy talking nuclear power plants Russia’s management of the zapia nuclear power plant said that okay so this is Russia’s management but they said Ukrainian shelling has destroyed a radiation control post situated about 5 km west of the power plant itself the management said Specialists carried out a number of compensatory measures to control the radiation situation in the area that does sound alarming however I think it’s just uh just a language because they did confirm radiation levels have not exceeded safe levels as a reminder Russian troops held or moved into the zapia plant very soon after the start of the fullscale invasion and since then Ukraine and and Russia have accused each other of endangering the safety around it I know the we’ve reported numerous times that the international atomic energy agency are very concerned about about the safety of the plant it’s said to be well the reactors are all shut down at the moment so there’s no immediate danger however the shelling of the the cooling infrastructure is thought to be the biggest risk there at the moment because you got to keep it keep it all nice and cold now some statistics from the Ukrainian army or the military and you they say they Ukraine has shot down 86% of the of Russian Shahed drones fired since the start of this year so it’s comes not from the Army sorry it comes from the head of the Air Force liutenant General Mao oluk said that his forces had destroyed 1,953 out of a total of 2,277 Shahed Kam Ki drones these results were achieved due to an increase in the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian military mobile fire groups he added just so we’re dial dialed back in been a little while since we looked at it Shahed are so Iranian designed UNC crude attack drones Warheads can be up to about 50 kg range over 1,000 miles typically fired in swarms to try to overload any air defense detonate on impact now there is a debate there has been a debate since since the start of the full scale Invasion about whether how to look at these how to think about air defense and whether you should look at the cost of the ammunition used to shoot down the Drone compared to the value of what that drone may be destroyed the argument is that drone of just a few thousand dollars you know being or if you use a a weapon of hundreds of thousands of dollars to take down a a relatively cheap drone it doesn’t matter you should focus on the value of what that what the attacking drone might destroy now I think the debate has moved on a bit from there be interested in your thoughts on this I think as we’ve as this war has moved into the attritional phase Battlefield economics are becoming increasingly important so I think the pendulum on that debate is swinging back to should you really be using air defense systems of hundreds of thousands of dollars a shot to bring down small cheap drones of of a few thousand dollar a go interested in your views there now speaking of Battlefield economics Ukraine’s intern AAL Partners have so far failed to significantly curb Russian defense production a leading Think Tank has said rather Russia has been able to continue accessing critical components from abroad expanded the production of core weapons and has continued to increase the sophistication of some key capabilities that’s the view of rusi the royal United Services Institute based here in London rusy senior research fellow Dr Jack Watling and research another research fellow Gary Somerville they’ve got a new report out today titled A methodology for degrading the arms of the Russian Federation now in this report the authors explore the reasons why the West has failed to effectively disrupt Russian military production despite efforts since 2014 to sanction certain individuals and various Russian entities all in an attempt to disrupt the Russian sanctions circumvention and covert procurement of military components but the authors make three three main criticisms they say governments have been too slow in acting they’ve always reacted rather than be proactive Western governments have also tried to conduct the relevant work at too high a classification which has impacted the data sharing between intelligence agencies officials and the private sector upon which uh much of the sanctions enforcement effort relies and finally they say many officials government officials and policy makers have maintained unrealistic expectations of how to measure effect and they make the point that rather than preventing Russian systems reaching the front line perhaps it would be better maybe slightly more nuanced but better to try to degrade the reliability of the systems as a whole or reduce the volume produced or increase the price all of which would impose difficult trade-off decisions as they see it on Russia’s military over the long term and it is longterm when you start talking about industrial Warfare the authors suggest a number of ways of making uh better taken the fight to Russia in this regard which I won’t try and pass it all now but it’s on their website well worth the read but they conclude that quote after two years of largely ineffectual and poorly cohered efforts the time to act is now and then just finally for me David I note today’s British defense intelligence update that says several Russian dumer deputies so the Russian Parliament several Russian Duma deputies have recently expressed concern about the threat posed to Law and Order by returning ex prisoners in Russia who have been fighting in Ukraine so the chairperson right here we go here’s a here’s a business card for you the chairperson of the Duma committee on Family Protection issues of paternity maternity and childhood uh Nina tinina she was speaking to Russian newspaper gazetta and said that there will be more crimes as these ex- prisoners are not socialized as she says she said ex prisoners should be constantly monitored by the law enforcement agencies I’m sure they’ll appreciate that and she said Society needed to be protected from them dumer Deputy Maxim Ivanov also warned that there could be an increase in crime after the return of such people from war now the Russian state has ceased to publish official crime statistics since since the start of last year actually likely in defense intelligence view likely partly over the possible rise in violent crime committed by ex prisoners returning from Ukraine however the independent Russian media Outlet verka reported in April this year that at least 107 Russians have been killed and around the same number seriously injured by veterans returning from the conflict so I mention that it’s quite a bit of detail it’s an interesting topic to look at but it’s just another one of these potential little messages little just the signals coming back from Russia that all is not well but clearly this point has been made before especially with the way that V went about recruiting from from prisons and we’ve seen anecdotal evidence of people who have been harmed and murdered by returning former prisoners who served in Ukraine and it looks like they are the Russian Doomer is seeking to take action but I’ll take a pause there David thank you d a quick message from us before we move on this Saturday on the 29th of June Ukraine the latest will be doing a live panel at the Steven Joseph theater in scarra in the northeast of England the show will be in the early evening and myself Dom Francis and Roland olant will be discussing the military lessons for the west from 2 years of the fullscale invasion for tickets just go to the scarer website or follow the link which we’ve put in the show notes we do look forward to seeing you there anyway back to the episode uh let’s go to Francis sternley there’s quite a few different diplomatic and political updates so let’s break up your section I think and we’ll bring in Dom a few times to get your thoughts as well but Francis first of all what have you been looking at well thanks David as you say lots going on and perhaps the worst kept secret in Western politics NATO has now at last formally appointed Mark rer as the next Secretary General putting the outgoing Dutch prime minister in charge at this vital moment for European security Mr R’s appointment was sealed after months of speculation by NATO ambassadors during a meeting at the 32 Nation alliances headquarters in Brussels President Biden and his counterparts will forly welcome him at the 75th Anniversary Summit in Washington in in July so it’s farewell to Yen Stenberg who in case you missed it Joe Barnes interviewed on the podcast for us last week Western leaders have been congratulating r on his appointment this morning though an early challenge for him will be to persuade his fellow Western leaders to increase their defense spending to over 2% when he himself was reluctant to do so as the Dutch prime minister so why him and what does it mean for Ukraine well Russ has been one of the key players behind Europe’s military support for ke since fullscale Invasion and crucially is on record of saying that defeat on the battlefield for Moscow is vital to secure peace in Europe so he’s more hawkish than one might initially think for context his perspective on Russia is reported to have been heavily influenced by the Downing of of The mh17 Airliner over Ukraine in 2014 by Russia controlled operatives which killed 96 Dutch citizens a hugely significant event we’ve talked about in the past on the podcast once somewhat forgotten but actually has been a real I think symbolic event now in terms of How It’s interpreted of the signs of the disaster that would come and indeed Roland olant would was vital in Breaking that story and was one of the very first there on the scene now a classic example of how historic events can have consequences far beyond the immediate as I say R himself has been very majorly influenced by this event and I’ll be returning to it in my final thought too so he’s strong on Russia and he’s also strong in terms of his relations with Britain EU and US leaders he sometimes nicknamed the Trump Whisperer for his good relations with the former US president who could of course win the White House back in November he’s widely credited r r with rescuing a 2018 NATO Summit by talking Trump round on defense spending so quite a moment which I know Dom has thoughts on in a second but just before that since we’re on the subject of European leaders as we reported last week Ukraine has also began official membership talks with the EU that’s what happened yesterday a major milestone in ke’s bid to join the union amid its ongoing war against Moscow zalinski called it a historic moment and said that Ukraine is committed to fulfilling every requirement to becoming a member and I mention it here because again it is evidence of whatever the short-term picture being in terms of the broader political trends at the moment where that be in nato in Europe there is much for keeve to be positive about at the present moment the worst moment it would appear this year has passed but that could change in terms of mood come November depending on the results in the United States of course the country which I’ll turn to next but first over to Dom on his Reflections on R’s appointment well thank you Francis Dom straight to you then Mark R the new head of NATO thoughts yeah I think I’m not going to repeat anything that that Francis said I think I think R is going to have his immediate problem is going to be accounting for defense spending under his watch in his country So currently round about 1.7% GDP this year Netherlands have committed to spending 2.03 for the next financial year 2.01 for the year after so yeah okay getting over the 2% line but they’re not there at the moment and they haven’t been under his watch so that’s going to be the big thorn in his side or the big weapon that will be used to to attack him I think in particular he’s got well shortterm and long-term issue so shortterm he’s going to immediately be faced with um NATO’s support for Ukraine and how it manages that because they’ve just NATO’s just said it’s going to take over the training and supply of equipment for Ukraine and I said what was it last week you how’s that going to gel with the Ramstein process there might be a SE this transition between the TR between the two but there’s going to be some bureaucracy undoubtedly and as we know any sort of big government or Administration level bureaucracy like that there’s going to be plenty of cracks for Goodwill policy time to fall into so the immediate problem is going to be how do you how does he manage NATO’s increasing role in the sport for Ukraine and then I think his longer term issue is going to be well maintaining NATO cohesion in the face of a longer traditional War as it’s starting to become very apparent with all the issues that that requires the shifting politics such as policies moving the very phony held lines like there’s going to be no Western weapons fired into Russia there’s going to be no western boots either uniform or contractor or veteran boots on the ground in Ukraine which now seems to be shifting The Wider support for for Ukraine amongst the amongst the alliance so these are all long-term but big things that could really unseat external support the other thing I think is going to be there’s going to be increasing calls led by Ukraine obviously but others for uh Ukrainian accession into NATO he’s going to have to manage this he’s going to have to manage the um you know some members of The Alliance like Hungary and Slovakia that are less keen on that politics in Europe is shifting a lot of Elections happening this year you might find some very big hitters such as France taking a cooler a less warm approach to Ukraine how’s that all going to stack up against increasing calls for NATO accession for Ukraine Article 5 is the is the game in town um all these defense pledges and bilateral agreements are fine but it’s very clear that it’s Article 5 or bust really um so he’s going to have to manage that and um as Francis said Ukraine is also looking for E EU membership now that’s separate from NATO but not completely absent there are connect there’s connective tissue and he’s got to keep the balance there because if one goes particularly ahead of the other out of pace that can upset it so at his level it’s political rather than military so all the things I’ve really highlighted less the shortterm stuff about training equipment really but the longer term issues is going to need a very canny political player motivat and negotiator now he’s said to be that which is good but he’s got some very big things coming down the tracks all the time with those that wish to to reach for the well what was your GDP whilst you’re in charge button so yeah I mean he he arrives at a very difficult time for the alliance but a time when the alliance is perhaps it’s most relevant since the end of the Cold War well thank you very much Dom Francis can I come back to you quite a lot to talk about in regards to the United States over to you Francis stle well thanks David and as Dom alluded to there of course the other challenge for Russ will be his relationships with the United States with Washington whoever wins the presidency and for several weeks now one of the core focuses of our reporting has been on the evolving us position with regards to the war particularly in terms of weapons deliveries and perhaps even more crucially actually permissions being granted as to their use and on that theme more interesting news out of DC today according to CNN the Biden Administration is moving towards lifting a de facto ban on American Military contractors deploying to Ukraine that’s coming from four us officials familiar with the matter who spoke to the broadcaster that is to help the country’s military maintain and repair us- provided Weapons Systems as CNN reports the change would Mark another significant shift in the Biden administration’s Ukraine policy as the US looks her ways to give Kei military and upper hand against Russia now the policy is still being worked on apparently by Administration officials and has not yet received the sign off from Biden once approved the change would likely be enacted this year and would allow the Pentagon to provide contracts to American companies for work inside Ukraine for the first time apparently administrating officials began to seriously reconsider those restrictions over the last few weeks as Russia made s on the battlefield and of course the US funding initially stalled in Congress so again evidence of how as we’ve talked about many times things had to get worse before they got better indeed that is part of the tragedy of this War I would argue now Washington would of course be following the German companies who as Dom talked about last week have set up repair bases in Ukraine for their tanks and other material it’s an example of the US and west broadly inching forward in its support of Ukraine Crossing certain self-imposed boundaries just as others are doing it is in policy shifts like this that one might and I emphasize that word might be seeing the impact of leaders like Emanuel macron talking more openly about the prospect of there being boots on the ground now to stress that is not what this would would mean this is not soldiers under the American flag but once upon a time I think even having representatives of American industry being on the ground would not have been seen as politically possible early on in this war so this is an important moment and it might Express as I say the importance of these ideas being talked about as macron and Estonia as K Callis have done and the latter of which very interestingly is set to be the eu’s top Diplomat if report are to be believed so again evidence that things may politically be going in an even more favorable direction for ke in some elements though of course that may all be superseded by the situation in the United States so I continue to emphasis that now Dom mentioned earlier on the rousi report which is well worth reading We’ll add a link in the description about how governments have been overly reactive rather than proactive in disrupting Russian procurement networks one could argue the same in terms of providing vital support in country to Ukraine or at the very least by allowing Western businesses to engage so that will potentially be about to change and that could Mark quite a significant moment now staying with the us as we report today the us could threaten to Halt weapons deliveries to Ukraine if it refuses peace talks under a trump presidency so that is a plan apparently being presented by two of his former Pentagon advisers Russia would separately as part of this proposal be warned that any refusal to enter negotiations would result in increased military support for keev and a ceasefire would be arranged on the basis of the front lines as they are when talks begin so this plan and as I say it is only a proposal there’s nothing formal being put forward and it’s certainly not the official US view but this is what some are speculating be what a trump Vision May well look like it was drawn up by retired lieutenant general Keith Kellogg and Fred flights who both served as Chiefs of Staff under Trump’s National Security Council Banner to encourage Putin to the negotiating table the US would agree to suspend the possibility of Ukrainian membership to the NATO alliance for an extended period of time so a lot of concessions I think many would argue being granted here it’s been put forward in a paper by the American first policy Institute a prot trump Think Tank where the former advisers hold these senior roles it does indicate that this is the kind of thing we might expect as I say if As Trump promised to try and solve the war in 24 hours so I think we can as I say start to see this formulating in certain ways this would of course as I say drive a wedge between Washington and its European allies most of which have signed up to a Ukrainian peace plan that stresses talks can only begin again after Russian forces withdraw from Ukraine that is rut’s view the proposal would also result in Ukraine of course losing vast SES of territory currently occupied by moscow’s troops to emphasize Russia still occupies about 18% of Ukraine now crucially and I say this unsurprised but I think it is still revealing this proposal has been partially endorsed by the Kremlin so Dimitri pesov our old friend has said the value of any plan lies in the nuances and in taking into account the real State of Affairs on the ground Putin has repeatedly said that Russia has been and remains open to negotiations and we remain open to negotiations so surprise warm words at the prospect of this being the first bargaining chip that a trump presidency might put forward and I think the fact that they’re approving this speaks volumes as to have whether they interpreted or not as favorable to them now just finally on this America segment The Wall Street Journal reporter Evan gvic has apparently be sorry forgive me let me resay that has appeared briefly in a Russian court with a freshly shaven head at the start of his behind the closed doors spying trial in Russia of course a charg the US journalist denies he was flanked by a Russian officer and he was stand standing in the glass box that we’ve all come to know wearing a checkered shirt with his hands tucked casually in his pockets of course he faces up to 20 years in prison if he is convicted of the charge Putin has said he’s open to the idea of some kind of prisoner exchange and the contacts with the US have taken place but remain secret nevertheless we will of course continue to monitor this case closely as we have done throughout but an update there from the courthouse which of course people hoped would never get to this stage but that’s where we are with the US updates David thank you very much Francis Dom can I come to you then just briefly you had a rather interesting interview earlier today we’ll of course hear that in due course probably on Monday’s podcast due to various different bits of admin in terms of we’ll be away tomorrow then away again on Saturday and trying to find the right Editor to edit it but who were you talking to earlier and what are your initial Reflections yeah so today Wednesday is the 2year anniv AR of operation interflex now this was the British Le but International training effort to to train Ukrainian new recruits it has expanded since then but that was initially what it was set up to do it grew out of operation orbital that existed between 2015 and up to the full scale Invasion 2022 that was inside Ukraine I visited it in 2018 again this was this is British trainers taking new recruits through their initial training so obviously the orbital ended when the uh Russian Force G Invasion started and it’s now been uh expanded and reshaped it’s now operation interflex and I spoke to the guy in charge Colonel James thirston Commander interflex he was also a former commander of orbital and a commanding officer of the Cold Stream guards so interlex is it’s now 12 International Partners they all send troops here to the UK it is well just over a third of the total International training support delivered by the Ukraine defense contact Group which we understand as the Ramstein group orbital for comparison between 2015 and 2022 trained 22,000 Ukrainian troops interflex has done 40,000 trained 40,000 it’s expanded from it was initially three weeks that was deemed far too far too little for basic training it’s now six weeks which is shorter than the well the British program of phase one training is about 10 or 11 weeks and it takes you up to take the individual that recruit up to what we call pairs fire and movement so the individual can look after him or herself their weapon and basic first aid basic understanding of law of armed conflict etc etc and can operate with a partner so one one moving while the other’s firing so safe with a weapon able to administer yourself in the field by cleaning yourself cleaning your weapon feeding yourself sleeping efficiently camouflage concealment all that kind of stuff so the interflex has now become a six we training tring course and 6 weeks historically is what countes in the in a sort of major existential war or major war that’s what the conscripted folk have to go through is about 6 weeks you’d ideally want longer but 6 weeks historically was what they settled down on so that’s what it is at the moment of course there is a lens of of language through which that’s going to take some time for many of the the folk arriving English is not their first language so 6 weeks might seem a little bit short with that but but it’s better than it was and I say it only focuses on basic soldiering including law of armed conflict and that kind of stuff now colonel thirston was saying that so I asked him over the period since interlex has started is there’s been any noticeable change in the motivation and morale of the recruits and he said no not really not at all he said if anything there’s a more doggy determination to get the job done in the the people who are coming through now and the and inflex has expanded there b they basically run three courses so there’s the vast majority is on the on new recruits basic training but they also train instructors so Ukrainian instructors who can then go back into Ukraine and continue the work the topup training because of course basic training isn’t the be and end or you’ve got to keep that topped up and also they then do a a course for junior leaders so private soldiers or Junior non-commission officers who have fought in the War in since the fullscale invasion so have some experience they now need to be Consolidated in order order to F firm up that that sort of spine of leadership that starts with the junior NC the junior non-commission officers so there’s three three courses running any one time but through them all James was very clear the priorities from the instructors they’re just they are focusing on two things survivability and lethality making these people giving the the best chance of them staying alive so being able to operate as a soldier and look after themselves and others in the event of any injuries and what have you but also to be the most lethal they can be so to operate their weapon system safely and effectively and understand where they fit into the to The Wider part and a lot of that goes down to they use a lot of Battlefield simulation in terms of sights sounds and smells to to try and get people over that initial panic and shock fear when they’re exposed to this stuff for the first time so they can then hopefully the training that would then kick in so it is very very believable it was very lifelike when I visited it in 2018 so I’m looking forward to visiting inter now to see what it to see what it what it’s evolved into so Colonel James he he he praised in particular the Australian weapon weapon instructors weapon handling instructors and the Estonian and Lithuanian instructors who he said were really good because their countries are geographically and culturally closer to Ukraine so they were really good on the sort of softer side of it just after the day training is done speaking to the recruits just having that peer-to-peer the bound of Brothers basically that side of it and Shoring up their moral component if you like so it was a really interesting chat I think we’re going to try and get it out next week the interview I hope to to go and visit interlex soon but it was very interesting to hear quite what quite what they’re going through I then did ask him at the end I said so 12 Nations UK LED but but 12 Nations Australia new zealanders a lot of Europeans in there as well I said who’s the best shot and he refused to answer so I guess it’s not the Brits but anyway h on H on a postcard but no that’ll be coming soon thanks David thank you very much Dom and just as Dom said we’ll have that interview out next week we hope Francis your final update please well thanks David I’m looking forward to having go with dom and scarber to shooting range to see which one of us is the best shot so answers on a postcard folks anyway just to end with an update on a subject we haven’t really covered too much in the last few weeks but I think he’s worth talking about today and that’s hacking so Russia has been accused of hacking Ukrainian television several times throughout the war but the most recent episode that’s get catching the headlines is something we talk about today in our paper which is putting violent images from the war on children’s channels and other TV channels in Ukraine and there’s been a series of complaints formerly lodged to the international telecoms Union the IU from Ukraine and other European countries about satellite interference that has affected their navigation services and television shows now supposedly it involves the jamming of GPS signals and is dangerous not only because of course anything could be shown on television for inappropriate inappropriate material for children Etc but also endangering air traffic control which relies on this kind of communication the EU has come out saying how dangerous this is and indeed has also got the United Nations involved too documenting at least 11 cases of interference in the last 3 months affecting dozens of Ukrainian television programs France Sweden the Netherlands and Luxenberg have also sent complaints as I say alleging harmful interference in their satellites Estonia too has blamed Russia for tampering with navigation devices in airspace across the Baltic states so I mention all this here because it would be an example of the hybrid warfare that’s been ramped up by Moscow though that said both sides have been reportedly engaged in hacking not only in terms of Television but also in terms of other kind of hacking projects so both Russia and Ukraine appeared to hack each other’s television around the time of moscow’s Victory Day parade with both sides trying to either show the parade somewhere there it wasn’t being shown in the case of Russia and Russia allegedly trying to essentially B up the Optics of it whereas Ukraine we’re trying to show different footage to Russian TV networks such as examples of war crimes being committed by Russian soldiers in Ukraine for instance supposedly attacks from the city hall near Moscow were also shown to large numbers of the population that’s according to Ukrainian Pravda as an attempt to draw attention to the ways in which Russia has been exposed to other vulnerabilities namely Islamic terrorism as a response to the raming up of the war in Ukraine and security elements not being able to be focused on that as opposed to focusing all of their efforts on the war in Ukraine now another case too recently is that the Ukrainian it Army that’s the term that’s often used is said to launch to have launched a large scale attack on the Russian banking system last week including the infrastructure of the national payment card system which brought several Banks down for several hours now inevitably it’s very hard to disting between random blos in their bedroom having a go versus those that are State sanctioned and are running on an official basis but nonetheless things are happening and things are happening not only on a micro and macro level but also internationally which is why I mention it here and I think when we hear intelligence Chiefs talking about hybrid Warfare and acts of sabotage and violence it’s these kind of things that also play into that so it’ll be good to talk about it again when we get a little bit more updates from the itu and from the UN on this issue but it’s an interesting one and so one I thought was important to address since it’s in the news this week thank you very much Dom and Francis for all of your work and Reporting today let’s move to our final thoughts Dom Nichols can I start with you yeah thanks David So I have been looking at this whole business up at V Chans so north of harke this lodgment this whatever it is this thing that that Russia put across the border a couple of months ago didn’t really do a lot it never managed to meet up it had two forces one one sort of north of harke and one to the Northeast along the border area they never linked up and they never pushed very far forward they were quite quickly held and they’ve now for the last few days very slowly but steadily been being pushed back and so I we’ve talked about it a lot was it an attempt at opening up a new front in which case I didn’t work was it the diversion for a push somewhere else sui perhaps or the dbass that hasn’t emerged so quite what it is it’s it’s not really doing a lot it’s not militarily effective for Russia anymore now it might be it might not have worked for whatever it was supposed to be it might not have worked because of this change in policy from the US to allow Western D or us donated weapons to be fired inside Russia and that would have been knocking out headquarters positions troop concentrations logistic node inside Russia that would have supported and pushed on through those lodgments so that might be it but whatever has come whatever the reasons are it’s left Russia in a bit of a pickle because the last we’ve seen a couple of times and ran talked about this the other day a couple of times where Russia has withdrawn has on you remember they got themselves across the river in good order has to be said we think it was Surin General Surin where’s Wally haven’t where is he haven’t seen still haven’t seen him I haven’t seen him for a while but anyway it was supposed to be his idea that got the Russian troops back over the River from the right Bank from the Eastern Bank thinking about it now got them over in good order but the other one har as as Roland mentioned so the sort of late part or latter part of 2022 that was just a chaotic disorderly route it was a pelm dash by Ukraine they chose where to stop before they overextended their lines now Russia obviously if they are if they’re thinking now about getting out of V Chans in that area they would want it to be the former they would want it to be a a discreet covert the troops back in in good order and save as much combat power as they can but that’s not really possible they could do that in her on because they had the big river and by the time Ukraine worked out what was going on it was too late and there was a massive geographical boundary you can’t really do that in V Chans once they’re over the Border possibly but between where they are now the outskirts of of Chan and the Border itself well they can’t just walk off they can’t just move away slowly breaking contact or a rearward passage of lines as it’s called in in contact with the enemy is extremely difficult trying with one hand to to punch the enemy whilst with the other hand move back and prepare your forces behind it’s extremely difficult so that might not happen and Russia certainly doesn’t want a repeat of harke where they just routed so what might they do to try and stop that well they might push troops forward up on the up to the the edge of the Border they might push artillery units there they might try and push some other other units to try and break to allow their forces invol chance to break contact and get back in good order but because of this new change of policy those troop concentrations are now going to be seen and targetable so it is a we haven’t seen this kind of problem before in this in the war it is only a small a very small area nothing on the scale of hke or haon really but it’s presented Russia with a real problem if they leave their people there they it looks like they will just be slowly ated up to and including the Border but if they try and get their people out how do they do it without them being targeted across the border it is very tricky um tactical problem um and it’s going to be interesting to see how Russia approach it and that’s I’ve been keeping an eye on that for the last few days reporting the the news as we see it but in the back of my mind I’m I’m thinking how the hell are they going to get themselves out of this problem that they’ve created for themselves and after that we will then have the conversation about well are there lessons here for what might be able to happen up and down the line by targeting Beyond where you you have been able to before for policy or equipment terms and then what effect that can have on the Tactical action but a really naughty problem for Russia right now in the v Chans area thank you very much Dom Francis would you like to have the final words today well thanks David just a brief one from me I mentioned the incident of mh17 earlier which was shot down by Russia controlled forces at a time when really the world was not paying attention to Ukraine and I won’t go over the whole story again because we have talked about it in previous episodes and it’ll be well known to many listeners particularly in Europe although as I said in in a few I think it was a few weeks ago now it is one of those incidents where if things had have been slightly different and rather than it being Dutch passengers who were killed on such large numbers if it was American passengers that were killed I wonder what the response would have been with the annexation of Crimea whether there would have been more of a sense of this being something that America needed to be much more closely involved in at the time but as I say that’s one for historic to judge the reason I bring it up again here is many listeners May well have seen on social media some footage circulating the past 24 hours or so which is Russia compiling collecting all of the remains of Il 76 that plane that was shot down in January in the bhod region and supposedly it was hit by a patriot again this is all coming from Russia’s perspective on this the evidence is very thin indeed and Moscow claimed that there were 65 Ukrainian prisons of War on board that plane that were heading for an exchange and then it was shot down by the ukrainians by accident or deliberately and they are now evidently trying to assemble this plane and make it something of a propaganda issue something that resembles visually at very at the very least mh17 where they’re compiling it and they’re trying to do an investigation into what really happened this is despite the fact that there’s no real evidence that we’ve seen of there being 65 prisoners on board and the video is available even question whether it was Patriots that actually shot it down and whether it might well indeed have been Russians that shot it down by accident or deliberately and in terms of the numbers lost it looks like there may have been about 10 people aboard not as I say that 65 as I say regard regardless of how many people were killed it’s still of course a terrible incident but in terms of how it’s being used by the Kremlin I find this so interesting I mean you look at mh17 it’s an incident that caused intern International ripples it did not have a decisive impact but it did lead many people to look at what was going on in Ukraine much more closely and it had as I say Visual and narrative power given the nature of the tragedy and I think what we’re seeing here is Moscow trying to create concoct a similar incident that it can use for its own propaganda and particularly can point to because as I say is visually striking when you reconstruct an entire plane from Parts which is what has been done in this footage to be able to say look we are also doing our own investigations of Ukraine war crimes to try and say that this is a war that everybody is implicated in that it is not just good versus evil etc etc so it’s also designed for a western audience so mention it as I say because it’s a another example I think of how the crian very cleverly constructs these narratives and knows where it’s deploying these visual messages in order to get maximum cut through for international audiences which as we know and have discussed at the moment are trying to decide their responses to the war in Ukraine so if you see that footage and you see it being shared by certain accounts on social media just be aware that it’s likely being deployed as a weapon of War but in the information War which of course remains as important as the one that is being waged on the battlefields of Ukraine at the moment Ukraine the latest is an original podcast from the telegraph to stay on top of all of our Ukraine news analysis and dispatches from the ground subscribe to the telegraph you can get your first three months for just1 at www.telegraph.co.uk Ukraine thelatest or sign up to dispatches our world affairs newsletter which brings stories from our award-winning foreign correspondents straight to your inbox we also have a Ukraine live block on our website where you can follow updates as they come in throughout the day including insights from regular contributors to this podcast you can listen to this conversation live at 1: p.m. London time each weekday on Twitter spaces follow the telegraph on Twitter so you don’t miss it to our listeners on YouTube please note that due to 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Day 855.

Today, we bring you updates from the battlefront, analyse the appointment of former Dutch PM Mark Rutte as the new head of Nato, and discuss reports that the Biden administration is moving toward lifting a de facto ban on American military contractors deploying to Ukraine.

Contributors:

David Knowles (Host). @DJKnowles on X

Dom Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Upcoming events:

Chalke Valley History Festival (27th June):

Home

Scarborough Fair (29th June):

https://scarboroughfair.uk/performances/ukraine-the-latest-live/

Articles Referenced:

‘US could halt weapons deliveries if Ukraine refuses peace talks’ (The Telegraph)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/25/us-could-halt-weapons-deliveries-if-ukraine-refuses-talks/

‘Biden administration moves toward allowing American military contractors to deploy to Ukraine’ (CNN)

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/25/politics/biden-administration-american-military-contractors-ukraine/index.html

‘A Methodology for Degrading the Arms of the Russian Federation’ (RUSI report)

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/occasional-papers/methodology-degrading-arms-russian-federation

‘IT Army attacks Russian banking system, disabling Mir payment system’ (Ukrainian Pravda)

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/20/7461812/

Subscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatest

Email: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk

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