May be a stupid thought, but…
If the SNP got one more seat fron the last election they would be on par with the current tory polling.
They would also be above the Lib Dems which would put them close to being the official opposition.
If I was the SNP spin team, that would be my tag line.
"Vote SNP get the tories out of the UK"
Feels like this shows how bonkers our voting system is.
Last pool I saw.
https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-labour-99-certain-to-win-more-seats-than-in-1997/
by surefox
13 comments
Tories might lose opposition if the worst polls come true. But it would be LD replacing them.
The polls would need to be fantastically wrong for The SNP to have any chance at all of improving their seats.
This can only be a good thing for the entire UK.
Tories are a cancerous, herpes like growth that infects anything it touches.
Of course tories only exist as a party because of FPTP, we need to get rid of FPTP next to ensure the tories remain a dead party forever.
I suspect the polls are over egging the Tory collapse. never underestimate the number og ‘shy’ Tories out there who say they’ll vote one way then tick Tory at the ballot box.
they’re not gone till they’re gone.
The problem is that it’s not really possible for Labour to win the amount of seats that is needed to decimate the Tories and the SNP gain. The same trends that are securing a Tory decimation are contributing towards SNP losses (e.g. Scottish people who may support independence but are willing to prioritise getting the tories out).
The end point here is that the conditions that delivered the SNP 50+ seats can’t coexist with the conditions that will deliver the Tories so few seats that the SNP would exceed their number.
There’s no chance the SNP *gain* a seat overall, realistically they’re gonna lose a big chunk of the ones they have. A good night for them would be anywhere close to retaining them tbh.
Tories might still end up 3rd though which would be hilarious sure, but you have to imagine at least some of those seats then go to reform which is less funny. Lib Dems would likely be 2nd largest party though.
I seriously doubt the Tories will do as bad as some polls are suggesting. I’m more inclined to believe the ones showing them getting 100 or just below.
Lmao no, Tories and tartan version will rightfully take a tanking.
Five years ago you might have thought that Lab getting more MP’s here than the SNP was possible but no one was thinking Con had even a chance of being third nationally.
Pretend you’re Starmer and start thinking about the 2028 or 2029 election. You’re assured that it is beyond doubt that you’ll win 450 seats this week, could even get to 550. Do you:
a) Smash the Tories so much that immediate electoral reform is unavoidable, while also lumbering yourself with 400 backbenchers who will realise they have no future in Labour?
b) Choose 100 Tory survivors from the far-right so you can continue to triangulate the centre?
c) Choose 100 Tories from the centre-right to perpetuate their split with Reform?
It’ll be fascinating to find out which outcome Labour tried to generate, if any. It’s incredibly rare for an incoming government to be able to choose its opposition in this manner.
The one thing I am sure of is that Labour would never miss an opportunity to remove the SNP from that opposition. It absolutely isn’t going to facilitate the SNP overtaking the Tories.
Yeah it would serve Scotland well with Labour in Westminster with SNP 2nd, kinda crazy when they only have seats in a tiny portion of the UK.
The only chance of getting the right to self determination upheld though would be for an SNP landslide in Scotland and for the English parties to be roughly tied with the SNP being able to play kingmaker in an otherwise split government.
Liberal Democrats have the best run of being the 2nd party of the UK
‘ SNP’ and ‘gain’ are two words you will not be hearing together tomorrow evening
No way are the SNP gaining, they’ll likely lose half of their seats