Putin looks to use Hungary in Ukraine peace-talks amid frosty tensions between Orban and Zelensky

Putin looks to use Hungary in Ukraine peace-talks amid frosty tensions between Orban and Zelensky

Tim so welcome um well Orban and zalinski face to face in ke I guess Tim the handshakes won’t be especially warm will they no um they’ve had a checkered time over the past two years uh because Orban is clearly uh sympathetic to Russia and to Putin uh Orban is the one that is that temporarily blocked the 50 billion Euro Aid package EU package for Ukraine uh he abstained on the vote for Ukraine coming into the uh EU in a few years perhaps he opposes sanctions on Russia they’ve taken very few Ukrainian refugees but something interesting happened at the last EU Council the two men spoke face to face in the margins as the diplomats say and it was quite an animated conversation and when I first heard that he showed up in in keev it was surprising and then that you quickly think about that conversation and then you quickly think Orban has just taken over uh the rotating presidency of the EU Council all the way through till December and that’s when things begin to fall into place right so so what as you read it what do these two leaders actually hope or want to achieve from this meeting I know uh Orban and Hungary have an interest in a small Hungarian speaking community in Ukraine more at stake than that let let’s park that just for a minute John I I’ll come back to it about the the ethnic hungarians in in Ukraine the more important thing is the Russia Ukraine war and Auburn’s uh influence so the big question I think and I don’t think we’re going to get it answered today is has he has come with a ceasefire proposal but you know anybody can wander into ke and say you know perhaps you should have a ceasefire the question is has he been given the nod by Putin to be uh the sort of conduit for this you know what was actually said in private and I’m afraid we don’t know that yet and we won’t know it probably for some time so has he come with this ceasefire idea with more in it that he that he’s told zalinski I think that’s the first thing yes second thing is is is and the key to the whole visit of course is he is as we said now the um on the rotating presidency of the EU Council and as such he to a large extent dictates the agenda of the foreign policy of the EU Council which motions have put forward timings things like that and there’s going to be a lot of fairly big uh meetings between now and the end of the year so I think that’s important to go to your point about it’s transcarpathia we’re talking about just sort of a region and a word and a name from the last century almost but it is the last century because this is a region which during the Austrian Hungarian Empire was part of the Austrian Hungarian Empire it is now within the borders of Ukraine it’s it’s the Border area of Hungary and Ukraine and they Hungary lost uh this the end of the first world war but there’s about 150,000 ethnic Hungarian who who live there and there’s been real tension between the two countries over Hungarian rights ethnic Hungarian rights inside Ukraine primarily about language the ukrainians passed a law quite a few years probably a decade ago requiring all the different ethnicities in Ukraine to be taught only in Ukrainian I think after the age of of about 10 yeah and that that that has really there’s some ranker between them uh there is there is even a an even farther to the right party than orban’s party in Hungary that actually lays claim to this region and says it should come back into Hungary that that’s not going to happen anytime soon so you know they have those tensions uh to discuss as well yeah I mean without without disrespect to the sort of Hungarian questioning Carpathia as you said there’s a hell of a lot bigger stuff on the table than that so looking at or ‘s position as the the new rotating president of the of the European Union’s Council of ministers and of course as a continuing member of of NATO Obama said that he won’t obstruct EU funds or NATO support for Ukraine so I guess it’s important for zalinski to make sure that that continues to be the case Tim yeah and and again you know this is the key to why he’s he showed up um but so quickly I mean I think he only took over yesterday um and zalinsky knows this and zalinsky knows uh uh orban’s role now um and yes of course he says he won’t obstruct the EU but like I said he has significant influence now in what the agenda is going to be which motions are tabled timings of meetings etc etc so you know he’s a real player Hungary is a player it’s a EU member it’s a NATO member and now it holds the rotating presidency and also in in the recent EU election s uh his party didn’t actually do that well but the far right parties right across Europe most of them did and they’ve got extra seats and although I don’t think EU policy at the Parliamentary level is is going to change towards Ukraine what you now have and for me the importance of the EU elections yes results is is that the far right have gained extra seats a lot of extra seats and Orban as the lead sort of politician of the farri right in Europe You could argue perhaps Marine Le Pen uh he’s putting together a new block inside the parliament again to try to push the agenda and what that does is gives the far right more clout throughout the corridors of power in the EU but even more crucially back in their own countries the politicians of all these countries Austria is a very good example the Freedom Party could win the Austrian elections in September I think they are and they all have to at the very least look at the policies of the faride and some of them will tack uh to that those headwinds so Orban uh is is in a strong position as as he as he goes to ke to be a representative of someone who can move and shake things right look I mean I mean you mentioned the St the possibility and we don’t know if Orban is going to ke with some sort of offer from Putin in his back pocket if if he does have such an offer it would one would imagine it would certainly involve Russia hanging on to Crimea it would involve hanging on to Russian occupies stretches of the dbass in which case that that piece of paper would be a complete non starer but now yeah um you know we’ve had this conversation before John I’ve always argued that everybody is really waiting for the result of the US election yeah now what do happen since the last time you and I spoke is that Trump’s two key foreign policy advisers two guys that were with him in the White House when he was president have come to him with a plan for for solving the war and the plan is roughly as follows uh they say to the ukrainians you’re not getting another red sent or another bullet from America unless you agree to a ceasefire and negotiate part one part two of this plan that L that Trump could offer if he wins is he then says to the Russians oh and you if you don’t negotiate yes we will double our Aid to Ukraine to bring them together but to go back to your point about the Crimea and the donbass yes it’s pretty clear that the deal is you freeze the the lines where they are at the moment and they’re pretty much where you end up and the pressure on Ukraine to negotiate if they’re not going to get any more Aid because some Europeans such as Orban would then jump in and say great we don’t want to give you any more Aid either how do you continue the war with no with very little help so then you have to go uh from a position of weakness the only way they would ever sign that is if they get a written guarantee in uncertain terms if he does this again we will fight inside the borders of Ukraine for you um that that for me is the rough outline and and it’s been coming for for some time but Putin’s waiting for the US election orban’s waiting zalin is waiting everybody it so much of it hinges on who wins the White House yeah such a such a huge huge huge uncertainty when it comes to the American election and its impact really really really briefly if I could finally attemp when it comes to that because we we’ve heard of that Trump strategy of threatening Ukraine into accepting yeah concessions and threatening Russia into into into making concessions from from one of the Trump trump allies on the program just a few days ago EU and NATO how are they able are they able to insulate their help for for for Ukraine from that kind of pressure from a Donald Trump White House they’ve already moved a little bit um the eu’s package uh spending is is agreed and goes up to 2027 but it’s more complicated than that and and no NATO can’t Supply the military side of it I mean and and pol ically I’m not sure that the individual governments in Europe would vote for the money that would be required to replace the American money and we simply haven’t got the armance to replace the American Arms so although a lot of people are now scrambling in case it’s a a trump second presidency uh they’re beginning this a little late for

“He, to a large extent, dictates the agenda of the foreign policy on the EU Council.”

Now that Victor Orban is president of the EU Council, Putin may attempt to use the Russia-friendly Hungarian prime minister in peace talks, says Tim Marshall, journalist and author.

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