Unsustainable losses put pressure on Putin’s invasion | Col. Philip Ingram

Unsustainable losses put pressure on Putin’s invasion | Col. Philip Ingram

you know the Russian public don’t really know the the true scale of the losses of of of the soldiers but also from an equipment perspective they’re unsustainable you I’m seeing more and more pictures of older equipment or um Heath Robinson you KN knockups been put together to go to the front line more and more stories of Russian troops not getting properly equipped of having to buy their own uniforms in case of having to buy their own ammunition to start with uh whenever they’re going out the latest us Aid package you know it’s just given the ukrainians 3 million 155 millimeter shells you know another 300 Bradley infantry fighting Vehicles you the Bradley can knock out um the Russians latest T90 tank it’s just given them a huge number of M1 Abrams Tanks as well enough to equip a large number of Ukrainian brigades um you Russia is not in a good position Ukraine is getting better and of course we’ve got the infamous f-16s and everything else coming in uh and the us a package has given an awful lot more air defense capability which allow Ukraine to to protect itself so I think things will stabilize and they’re getting a lot worse for the Russians hello and welcome to Frontline for times radio I’m James Hansen and today we’re focusing on the war in Ukraine and in particular the effect of the change of government in Britain joining me to discuss that is a regular guest here on Frontline delighted to be joined by former Colonel Philip Ingram MBA a former military intelligence officer with more than 26 years of experience in in the UK Armed Forces he’s also a former NATO planner and Philip’s now a military analyst and commentator Philip always a pleasure Welcome Back to Front Line good good to be with you again let’s start with the change of government in the UK is this going to lead to any significant shift in UK foreign policy specifically when it comes to Ukraine I don’t think so you we’ve already seen um you the N prime minister um having visited Ukraine and turned around and given assurances that there will be no change whatsoever which is important it’s a it’s a very important message to get across however when it comes to youve been able to give political capital and political time to um giving that support as they’re setting up a new government and all the rest of it you only the the coming days and weeks we’ll see what do we know about K starmer’s foreign policy chops I mean he’s from a legal background you often have the issue with new Prime Ministers they’re not steeped in foreign policy he’s got to go off to the NATO Summit next week so he’s in straight of the deepend what do we know about his his thoughts on foreign policy well he he seems quite conservative with the small CA and on from a foreign policy perspective you the the comments he’s made on what’s going on in the Middle East um uh where you he’s called for you a a ceasefire but a two-state solution longer term but also the release of hostages at the same time he’s echoing a lot of what the International Community is saying however he’s you now the prime minister of a party with a very large majority and um there are a large number of elements of his party who’ve got more extreme foreign policy views and some of the members of his new cabinet um you know the new Justice secretary um you know there’s a photograph circulating I’ve seen of her holding a pro Palestinian placard at one of the London demonstrations we’ve got the new Home Secretary uh sitting there with a plard in front of her saying refugees welcome um you know he’s going to have a difficult time position positioning himself properly um and you know David Lame the uh the the foreign secretary he’s he kept the brief um in opposition but you know he’s come out with some questionable ideas how those will go on both domestically and internationally and some of the comments he said I don’t know but from a defense perspective I think he’s got a safe Pair of Hands on John Healey I wanted to ask you about David Lami because you’re right there was a lot of speculation in the weeks leading up to the election that that he may be moved from his position as as foreign secretary or Shadow foreign secretary as it was then he has been very critical in the past of Donald Trump and okay he’s not by no means the only UK politician who has been David Cameron his predecessor as foreign secretary had previously been very critical of Donald Trump but does that make it difficult if Trump returns to the White House in November and if the UK is in the position where it’s trying to persuade Donald Trump to continue to support Ukraine does David Lam’s past comments make it that much harder with with a an individual like Trump yes it will you know he will be briefed on it and you Trump will um formulate his opinion as to you what what uh relationship he wants if it’s lamb he meets F first of all I suspect Kier starmer would take over any negotiations with Trump um and and keep lame you sort of in the in the back seats and dealing with things but it will influence it and David Lame has not covered himself in glory in a lot of the statements he’s put out whilst he was in opposition you I remember an Infamous video where he was complaining about knife crime um in his local constituency and saying there was no sign of any police officers ever in the area he never saw them all the rest of but standing behind him in the background the other side of the bridge there was a police officer the whole way through um you know only recently he um was on uh radio Ral radio channel so I’ll not mention them um and and got confused as to whether um uh you know a transgender woman um you know a man who had become a woman postoperatively would have had a cervix or not um and it shows a degree of naivity that I’m surprised K storer’s given him such an important brief when he’s made you know a number of um faas in the past that’s not necessarily a good start and John Haley the new defense secretary I mean the defense secretary You could argue is as important when it comes to things like Ukraine as as the foreign secretary Ben Wallace who was defense secretary for many years under first first Boris Johnson then Liz truss and then Richie sunak had a huge amount of respect in Ukraine John Healey he seems relatively well regarded in the defense community in the UK yeah John John I’ve met and and and and talked to on a couple of occasions he’s a good steady Pair of Hands he’s had the defense brief for a number of years of course he’s been a minister before um so he understands government so he’s one of the exper more experienced individuals that um uh K starmer will have in his cabinet um and he’s a good steady Pair of Hands but the trouble is you know when we see his Junior ministers whether he’s got any um sort of depth within those will will will be telling and what he’s inheriting is not in a very good State at all and that’s me putting it mildly without using words that you couldn’t really use on air I mentioned that next week it’s the NATO Summit so K starmer is straighten at the deep end he’ll be meeting lots of other world leaders which will be an important moment for him anyway to build those diplomatic relationships but in terms of the topics that are likely to come up I imagine once again Ukraine is going to dominate yeah Ukraine will dominate um I think in the sidelines there’s going to be some discussions about you what’s going on around Europe because of course this weekend we’ve got the um the second round of the French elections so that will formulate part of the discussions and then there’ll be the look forward as to what’s happening potentially with the US um elections towards the end of the year so you it it it will be a very important meeting for care armor to you get onto the world stage and quickly um and and you make his point and get get himself known um and you very quickly with what’s going on elsewhere you know he’s he’s going to become a an elder Statesman within a few weeks because of you the implications of other elections that are happening so it it it’s important for him it’s critical he gets this right because that will set the flavor not just from an a defense perspective but you this meeting of um the the heads of NATO States is is is much more important from that that diplomatic and political perspective so he’s this is his time to set um his first impressions as the leader of the UK and you only get one opportunity to get your first impressions right it was interesting earlier this week some of the leaders of the Eastern countries in nato in Eastern Europe made a call for France and Germany to increase their defense spending to 3% of GDP K dama has said it’s his ambition to raise defense spending in the UK to 2 and a half% but 3% is is another level now In fairness of these Eastern European nations they weren’t specifically calling out the UK but presumably in NATO circles he’s going to be asked those questions and he’s going to come under pressure over defense budgets oh 100% um the first thing is to try and get all NATO Nations to um spend the the already agreed 2% of their GDP cuz not all nations are doing that um it’s interesting that the Eastern nations are are saying even more they’re recognizing the threat that’s there um the UK you know with the ambition to go to 2 and a half% the the the Tores had said they would get there by um by uh by 20 uh 2030 I think it was I I think it said k k starmer has set when the condition when the conditions are right now part of those conditions are going to come out in the Strategic Defense review that he said he’s going to um uh bring in within the first year that Strategic Defense review may turn around and say um that he needs to spend more than 2 and a half% of of GDP that’s something that you the discussion hasn’t happened yet so I I think it’s a little bit early um to to try and hold them up for that but there will be increasing pressure um across NATO to increase defense spending even more given the nature of what’s continuing um and what will likely continue with the war in Europe between Russia and Ukraine but also what is developing in the Middle East and Southeast Asia because those are areas of European interest and they’ve got direct implications on European security um both from a an economic perspective but also military perspective which is why we’ve seen you NATO forces um you pivoting and and deploying Maritime assets down into southeast Asia um and um you know as part of an international Force into into the the Red Sea and the water Gulf region just moving away from from UK politics it was interesting we had this Summit this week between President she of China and President Putin of Russia of course in Kazakhstan at the Shanghai cooperation organization and Putin was quoted is saying that he sincerely believes that Donald Trump has a plan to end the war in Ukraine what do you make of those comments you the relationship between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin there is so much speculation around um there there is certainly something there between the two of them um and you it would not surprise me if there is a um a back door where they are um you know at least communicating in some in some way or other um and we had that Infamous position when Trump was president and went to see Putin and had uh a one-on-one meeting with Putin where there were no um other officials there whatsoever and that is completely unheard of um uh from you know a US perspective um Donal Trump has said that he he would solve the um the war on Ukraine you within within a day of him taking um taking over his president he said if he had been president it wouldn’t have happened so the he he will have peace ideas in his mind it was interesting at the Shanghai cooperation agreements um uh or Shanghai cooperation organization meeting that um the M of Qatar turned around and um talked to Vladimir Putin and said look um you you will have to give up your territory Ambitions for for peace we’ve seen um your peace deals coming out where you zalinski is it’s been suggested as zinsky that he may have to give up some territory um for negotiations and you quoted us officials and this could be where Trump’s bits coming from um saying that um you know if you give up some territory we will um stop um Ukraine from joining NATO um and stop Georgia from joining NATO and zilinski has already come out and and said you that’s not acceptable um there there’s certainly a lot of discussion going on in the background I think it’s too early to speculate or or too early to pin any of the detail down there’ll be lots of speculation um but you know I think you know when zilinsky comes out with his peace agreement you the the the starting point for that and there’s been discussion um across the press and elsewhere and out of his office that he’s drafting that at the moment I think he’s drafting that ahead of a IAL Trump um presidency so that he can take the initiative and put that on the table and say there’s you what I want to start with you’ve got what you’re thinking of right we’ve got something to talk about but the zalinski position will be almost certainly unacceptable to Vladimir Putin um and therefore it’ll be seen as Putin not um accepting and not negotiating rather than Z zalinsky not accepting and not negotiating so a lot of political mations and and diplomacy you know to to go on here and of course we have to remember that Warfare the military action is when diplomacy fails it’s diplomacy by another means presumably Trump’s calculation is he can end the war as he says within a day of taking office or being elected Whatever It Is by essentially saying that’s it no more military support for Ukraine from the US and that that will force zalinsky around the negotiating table into some kind of piece that would probably involve giving up Sovereign Ukrainian territory but if Ukraine’s other allies in Europe and the UK for example the K sted labor government decide no we’re gonna we’re gonna fill the shortfall we’re going to increase our contribution to Ukraine’s defense is that realistic Could That Could That prolong the Ukrainian resistance and do you think that’s likely at all well is it likely yes um because we’ve already had Chancellor Schulz from Germany we’ve already had the outgoing Dutch prime minister um uh who’s going off to be the new Secretary General of NATO and we already care starmer turn around and make clear statements um saying that they will support uh Ukraine until you Ukraine has pushed Russia out so for as long as it takes is what’s in there um Donald Trump is saying that he he always puts extreme ideas on the table and and watches what’s going on how much he believes them how serious they are I don’t think even his closest staff no um the real difficulty is if he tries to do something like that that one will embolden Vladimir Putin in the short term if they think if he thinks that that’s what’s going to happen um to dig in and thr more of his troops into the meat grinder that is is happening across the whole of the front line he’s losing over a thousand troops a day um you know his defense industrial base can’t keep up with the casualties that are going through uh both from Personnel equipment and ammunition um you the the losses that are happening there which is why he’s having to go cap and hand to the Shanghai cooperation organization but more more particularly to Iran and to um North Korea you know getting troops from North Korea getting ammunition from North Korea that that that smacks of real desperation um but what it would also do if that did come and and come into fruition is it would put us down a path to a global conflict much more quickly um and I don’t think um Donald Trump has thought about that yet he won’t be being briefed on those sorts of things for his National Security team cuz he doesn’t have one so you know he’s thinking personally um he’s thinking of you know stuff without all the full detail whether he’ll take the full detail in and listen to it or not I don’t know because if Z Linsky is forced into that position then Xi Jinping will turn around and go well hey this is three years three and a half years since it all started I can handle three and a half years of international condemnation over Taiwan in fact I’ve got better um economic hold over the United States than um you the the the Ukraine has had or Russia has had and everything else so I could probably take that three and a half years down to two or two and a half or one and a half so I’m going to take Taiwan by force that will stimulate a Southeast Asian pivot and we’re on in real dender of of World War III happening then well let’s just finish on a point you mentioned a moment ago Phillip about the Russian casualty rid obviously we’ve spoken a lot about the geopolitics but just to focus on what’s happening on the ground in Ukraine at the moment as you say I mean they’re losing in some cases over th000 troops a day and the fact that Putin is going off to North Korea asking for North Korean troops says a lot do you think the Russian losses are unsustainable at the moment I think they’re completely unsustainable um you know the Russian public don’t really know the the true scale of the losses of of of the soldiers but also from an equipment perspective they’re unsustainable you know I’m seeing more and more pictures of older equipment or um Heath Robinson you KN knockups been put together to go to the front line more more stories of Russian troops not getting properly equipped of having to buy their own uniforms in case of having to buy their own ammunition to start with whenever they’re going out the latest us a package you know it’s just given the ukrainians 3,155 mimet shells you know another 300 Bradley infantry fighting Vehicles you the Bradley can knock out um the Russians latest T90 tank it’s just given them a huge number of M1 Abrams Tanks as well enough to equip a large number of Ukrainian brigades um you Russia is not in a good position Ukraine is getting better and of course we’ve got the infamous f-16s and everything else coming in uh and the US a package has given an awful lot more air defense capability which allow Ukraine to to protect itself so I think things will stabilize and they’re getting a lot worse for the Russians Phillip always appreciate your time thank you so much for joining us today on front line thank you James thank you for watching Frontline for times radio for more on Global Security and the war in Ukraine you can listen to times radio take out a digital subscription to the times and click subscribe on our YouTube channel

Putin’s troop losses after the Kharkiv offensive have become unsustainable, Philip Ingram tells Frontline on #timesradio

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