Putin’s under pressure as Ukraine war ‘endgame’ approaches | Professor Tim Willasey-Wilsey

Putin’s under pressure as Ukraine war ‘endgame’ approaches | Professor Tim Willasey-Wilsey

Putin’s under pressure too uh I mean there’s a there’s a there’s a narrative now that Ukraine were winning and now Ukraine are losing uh and I’m not sure it’s as simple as that so when Putin goes to North Korea and begs the North Korean help that is a bit of a sign of desperation he’s already doneal with Iran that’s a bit of a sign of desperation now we know he’s got a lot of Chinese support but if you’re Putin you don’t feel particularly good about being totally in Hawk to the Chinese who you know not so long ago were regarded as the sort of if you like the Communist Junior Partners to what used to be the Soviet Union and now Russia is so much the junior partner to China and actually under some threat from China in in terms of things like influence in the Central Asian republics you know Kazakhstan usbekistan and places increasingly China you know is beginning to be become more influential uh in in in in those countries as well so it might look from the Western point of view that Russia is in a very strong position but I think if you’re a Putin you’re a little bit uncomfortable actually I’m Tim willsy wiy I’m visiting professor of War studies at King’s College London and a former British Diplomat there’s been a a pretty disastrous attack on a children’s hospital um yesterday in Kiev um which has really ramped up tension between um Ukraine and Russia and of course all this happening on the eve of the NATO Summit which I don’t think is is is any coincidence incidentally and I think also the arrival of President prime minister Narendra Modi of India in Moscow at the same time is also not you know this is this is not coincidence this is Putin preparing for the NATO Summit bearing in mind all the various all the variables that are coming in the year ahead new to be the United States um presidential election obviously the turmoil in the French electoral system big political change in UK all sorts of uh doubts in Germany about the Ukraine war so I think this is Putin playing across all those various various issues these days um weapons are pretty high Precision now you do have low Precision missiles being used in the Ukraine war you’ve got the the famous you know Iranian Shahed drones um and you’ve got these so-called Glide bombs which are being used and often launched 40 miles behind the Russian border and hitting um towns on the border but the this was an attack in Kiev the Russians themselves said it was a position position missiles they used although they are claiming of course that these were air defense missiles which misfired um Ukrainian air defense missiles with Miss fired which which in a sense is a leaf out of the the Gaza PL book if you remember the Israelis have made the same the same claim on occasions so um Precision missiles should not hit Children’s Hospitals not these days um and so um you know one has to you know you one has to be a little bit cautious mistakes do happen but you know 24 hours 48 hours before a NATO Summit one has to think to oneself is this not a deliberate attempt to up the anti on NATO at a time when several NATO members are you know beginning to waver a little bit air defenses are extremely important um air defenses were sent to Ukraine earlier on but you know a lot of the a lot of the western inventory of air defense missiles has been expended so you know we’re now really casting around to find spare you know Patriot missile batteries and other missile batteries uh to to send to Ukraine this whole question of the degree to which we’ve run down our own inventories is actually a very serious issue maybe we could discuss later so um you need these these missile defenses obviously to bring down bring down missiles as they come in and sort of increasingly over the last nine months in particular you know we’ve been failing to bring down uh uh sufficient missiles and I’ve mentioned the Glide bombs earlier which are a very very difficult phenomenon to bring down at all also uh we’re on the cusp of sending F-16 aircraft to uh to Ukraine this would be the the Dutch the Norwegians the belgians I think the Dan as well will be sending them and there’s already been more than a hint that Russia will be targeting the bases at which the f-16s are based so they’re going to need air defense missiles there as well also to protect population centers and also to protect electricity generating capacity you know Ukraine has lost half of its electricity generating capacity due to missile strikes so this is a really urgent request and one I’m sure that NATO will will have to meet I mean the the Patriots the Patriot system is a is a remarkable system in fact it’s been sort of outperforming itself in that it’s actually it’s actually brought down categories of missiles that it wasn’t actually originally designed to bring down so it’s a remarkably effective weapon the the the global problem we have is there are not enough uh systems I mean just to give you an example Britain for example doesn’t have you Patriot systems so um you know these these things are as rare as hen teeth and as I say what we’re having to do is sort of prize them out of places where they’re already installed and to install them uh in in Ukraine and obviously I’m sure the United States are upping their manufacturing capacity as well uh but yeah these things are in very short supply and very badly need so lens’s got to be very careful at this um Summit I mean he’s got a bit of a reputation for turning up with long shopping lists and if you may remember uh with Ben Wallace our defense minister was sort of slightly critical of him about that um some some months ago and I think what is much more important for Ukraine is not what it’s promised at this meeting but the wider NATO response so what NATO needs Above All in This NATO meeting they need to show complete solidarity I complete support for Ukraine unquestioned support for Ukraine I mean it’s slightly unfortunate that in a way that President Biden is going to be using the NATO meeting to sort of prove his mental acuity um so you know in a sense part of the summit has sort of been has been hijacked for that separate um uh purpose but actually if he shows his mental acuity in showing United response to Ukraine that will be that will be very valuable I think there’s incidentally a big role here to play for Britain’s new prime minister K because unlike the Germans who are wavering Chancellor Schultz who is wavering on Ukraine under a lot of pressure from other political parties unlike the French who’ve just had a very complicated uh parliamentary election which has put the has given a lot of power to the farle melon sha who is not very strong on Ukraine and the far right which of course is also not very strong on Ukraine there is I think a real really important role for sakir stama I mean literally what day four or something of prime minister to to demonstrate you know the the solidarity we uh show towards Ukraine and to really sort of to really firm up the support amongst wavering members of NATO I think that’s that’s an extremely important role he’ll have to play very early in his Premiership I think there’s a really interesting point here actually which I think tends to get lost in the debate over Ukraine uh and and I would argue that Putin’s under pressure too uh I mean there’s a there’s a there’s a narrative now that Ukraine were winning and now Ukraine are losing uh and I’m not sure it’s as simple as that so when Putin goes to North Korea and begs the North Korean help that is a bit of a sign of desperation he’s already done with Iran that’s a bit of a sign of desperation now we know he’s got a lot of Chinese support but if you’re Putin you don’t feel particularly good about being totally In hoc to the Chinese who you know not so long ago were regarded as the sort of like the Communist Junior Partners to what used to be the Soviet Union and now Russia is so much the junior partner to China and actually under some threat from China in in terms of things like influence in the Central Asian republics you know Kazakhstan usbekistan and places increasingly China you know is beginning to be become more influential uh in in in in those countries as well so it might look from the Western point of view that Russia is in a very strong position but I think if you’re a Putin you’re a little bit uncomfortable actually the way it’s going add to that they’ve lost a huge amount of equipment add to that they’ve lost a great number of men um and probably women as well but particularly particularly soldiers and mercenaries you know the Vagner group and and so forth so I think if you’re if you’re Putin you’re not feeling quite as good as as as as we may think and this is why I think at the N Summit the you know the cence that we are in it for the long game is so important because if if if um if Putin recognizes that we’re we’re going to stick by Ukraine um that makes him totally Reliant then on a trump election victory in in November and as we know that’s not not necessarily guaranteed you know I think we’ll probably reach some sort of solution in 2025 I mean I would obviously one would one would like to see Russia’s uh uh Invasion defeated and them have to go back to the original line and give up Crimea and so forth and you know one would you know I would I would much prefer that as as an outcome but you know uh these days um strategic patients is in short supply we saw that in Afghanistan and um uh as I say we’ve got a certain amount of wavering so I think in a sense we are entering an end game here which is why all these things like the way weapons we Supply and the Diplomatic Unity we show are so important because when it eventually it does come to some sort of deal um you know if if if if we’ve been weak on the Diplomatic side on the military side and everything then Putin’s going to get everything he wants uh which would be I would argue Absolut disastrous for Europe because then what’s to stop him in two or three years time deciding to take a chunk out of Estonia or or or or to go for Georgia or or mova probably you know non non-n countries so you know if if it is going to be the end game in 2025 2026 which I think is pretty likely it’s these what we do now becomes incredibly important so that we have Putin on the back foot as he actually has been in Crimea and this is the interesting thing although Ukraine hasn’t been doing quite so well in the donbass it’s been doing very well in Crimea you know the the Russians have lost a lot of naval ships they’ve had to move their Navy out of sevastopol further away from the action and they’re very very worried that the Kirch straight bridge will be hit again which would cut off that route into into Crimea so you know all is by no means lost and this is why you know I think really the next three days are going to be so important Trump says some things and does other things I mean he made a lot of very anti-nato remarks during his first ter in office but actually stayed as member of NATO and in in in and in a sense did a a favor to Nato by getting a lot of the members to increase their spending up to the up to and Beyond the 2% limit so um it may well be that that his boast that he’ll end the I think he said in the debate didn’t he that he would end the the Ukraine war before he even took office so you know after the election but before he takes office which is quite opposed uh well firstly that is extremely unlikely and uh one hopes that allies and uh the the the also the statistics in the house in Congress in representatives and the Senate will actually force him to think again and of course that would be that would be a massive disappointment for Putin if if Trump does hang on in there I think what Trump would do and I think this is a very welcome thing incidentally is he would say look you Europeans you need to be carrying much more of the burden and you know we’re we the United States are doing I think I saw statistic IC that United States has provided 73% of support to to to to Ukraine so far I mean it should be at least 5050 if not 6040 in favor of Europe given that this is a European problem so you know I think uh a a a solution like that in which Trump got Europe to do more and the United States did less I think would be a a pretty good outcome and I think would be the nightmare scenario for for Putin I think uh all defense budgets are going to have to go up I don’t know if you you heard that but overnight the um German defense minister Pistorius is very unhappy that his defense budget has not gone up um so all defense budgets are going to have to go up I think UK realizes that I think the labor government will put it up to 2.5 by the way and incidentally I think probably 3% is going to have to be the the the the amount eventually um because I don’t think 2.5% what with inflation is going to make that much much difference um so I think know Poland is Poland’s already at 4% the Baltic states are heading up in that direction they’re doing they’re doing much better um you know it’s wrong to give the impression that the the whole of NATO is is going flaky on Ukraine I mean Sweden and Finland joining they’re very very good new members as well so yeah there are there are people there are countries we worry about obviously the case of France is an interesting one because although the left and right did very well in this election ultimately I think the new prime minister is going to come from the center um and um and macr of course has got two years to go and macron after a fairly weak start on Ukraine back in 2022 is now sounding a lot tougher so um you know I I I I think my overall message is not everything is lost here uh there’s still a lot to play for Russia is feeling Russia is feeling under much more pressure than we realize I think I think seninsky will get the message don’t go to Washington with a shopping list and expect it all to be far far more important is what NATO says yeah obviously obviously it’s important that we give him more stuff more carees but I don’t think that’s what the Washington serment should be judged by

If you’re Putin, you’re a little bit uncomfortable.”

The “endgame” for the Ukraine war will be in 2025, as Nato meets to create a “nightmare scenario for Putin”, says former diplomat Professor Tim Willasey-Wilsey.

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