NaMoste Russia: PM Modi’s First Visit To Russia After Ukraine Invasion | India Today

NaMoste Russia: PM Modi’s First Visit To Russia After Ukraine Invasion | India Today

I want to go across to harsharan shringla former foreign secretary in the government of India Mr shringla welcome it’s great to have you with us you know Prime Minister Modi is in Moscow at a time when leaders of 32 nations of NATO are meeting in Washington DC and this is prime minister modi’s first state visit in his third term so could you start by explaining to our viewers your sense of the significance of Prime Minister Modi picking Russia for his first state visit usually in this past two terms he went to one of our neighboring countries he’s gone to Russia at a time when NATO is meeting in Washington what your assessment of the significance of the state visit Mr Shing welcome thank you Rahul well I mean you have to look at it in context you know the prime minister’s first visit was to the G7 after he was swor in for the third term in office and he had an extensive interaction with most of the leaders of the Western World at that meeting and uh the fact that he’s going to Russia also has to be seen in the context of our strategic partnership with Russia which provides for an annual Summit between the two leaders now so far we’ve had 21 Summits and President Putin had visited India in December 2021 so that’s almost three years uh or 2 and a half years since his visit and so um you know prime minister’s visit in Russia I would say is due um obviously um you know there are many other factors um you know one is our bilateral relationship Russia is an important partner in our energy equation in terms of Defense in our trade People to People ties um we also cannot discount the fact that the geopolitical global geopolitics will be part of the discussion um Prime Minister Modi has been in constant touch with both president zilinsky and President Putin uh his his famous words that this is not an era of war and that we should deal with conflicts through diplomacy and dialogue I think in many senses sets the tone if you recall the G20 Summit that India prided over also had in its outcome document among the first paragraphs some of these defining features of our own approach towards the UK Russia Ukraine Prime Minister Modi last visited Russia in September 2019 since then Russia and China have become more tightly uh locked in Embrace India and the United States have built on their strategic partnership so let’s spend a moment on the troubles that China is giving India along the line of actual control and the role potentially Russia could play in trying to help India deal with Beijing well you know um India has always seen Russia as one of the polls in multipolar world but the but the one of the consequences of the Ukraine conflict has been that Russia has been drawn more closely into China’s orbit making it less of a independent pole by itself now our enhanced engagement with Russia I think is to draw it out and also you know to try and get it to play as a moderating factor in the uh you know India China relationship and the fact that Russia being a close uh you know uh strategic partner of ours can also present a perspective that may not be always evident so I think from that perspective also this visit is important uh I think it it it underlines our emphasis on balancing between the between the polls our efforts to maintain strategic autonomy but also our efforts to somewhat uh you know play a sort of a role of uh getting Russia to be more independent if you know Noti President Putin has tried to ensure that he’s not only dependent on China he’s made his visits to Vietnam to North Korea and I think it’s important that there is some uh you know political space for him to to maneuver that would allow him uh to to engage other partners uh other than China how is the establishment in the United States likely to look at this Wiz IT it becomes more consequential because of the timing this is when there’s a NATO meeting as I said happening in Washington DC so how how is the US which wants to pull India as much as possible into its Embrace and into its fold likely to look at Prime Minister Modi making this very significant State visit uh to Moscow last year Prime Minister Modi visited the United States uh it was a very uh successful visit uh we concluded some major deals including for the first time cutting Ed Technologies such as the g144 engine for India’s light combat aircraft was provided we signed the ini itive on on critical and emerging technologies that gives us access to obviously Cutting Edge Technologies uh so we have a relationship and we have a very strong relationship with the United States that relationship is growing and and I think uh the US uh in many senses will understand uh the you know context in which our visit is taking place the prime minister’s visit is taking place I think one of those factors is also to ensure that there is a certain amount of um effort to uh you know put this conflict in some context and try and try and redress some of the issues that would bring the sides closer I mean the recent U meeting in Switzerland which is designed to sort of act as a peace conference wasn’t very successful because Russia wasn’t there India is one of the few major countries that stles that ideological divide between north and south and east and west between the Western pars and Russia and China uh we are the one player that can that can actually contribute and I think Prime Minister Modi is uh looking at that factor he is looking at seeing how India can bring its own approach you know come into this context and see how we can help in resolving that issue uh that has really not only can prime minister poten play a role in trying to uh impact or shape the Russia Ukraine conflict do you think that is so complex that there’s very very little or a country like India can do given uh the clear differences between Russia and Ukraine at the moment yes I think uh you know nobody is saying that you’re playing the role of a mediator uh but if you see in the current context many of the leaders who actually tried to do some shuttle diplomacy try to contribute to resolving the the conflict are today not uh active any longer or not seen as as impartial to the extent that they can make that uh make that uh effort and today I think it leaves very few countries with that I would say uh you know ability to uh to bring the two sides closer together so mediation is not the issue the issue is really understanding both sides in some detail and trying to find uh areas where uh you know both sides could be nudged into a more reasonable SS that could lead ultimately to a resolution to the conflict so I’m not saying that that you know the visit it is a mediatory sort of effort I’m saying that one of the issues that would be and one of the major issues that could form the discussion between Prime Minister Modi and President Putin would be uh you know how to how to look at uh bringing this conflict to an end President Putin himself has said is open finally meaning you know how the conflict could be resolved what do you see as being the most critical takeaway from this bilateral State visit what do you see as being the key uh items on the agenda and the takeaways our audience should be looking out for I think the word bilateral is correct uh we will be looking in my view at uh trade which is a very important factor don’t forget Russia contributes to onethird of our total energy Imports we have imported about 62 billion of Russian uh you know energy uh and fuel uh in in in the financial year 2024 um and I think uh you know there is an imbalance because obviously Russia has exported only $4 billion out of that $66 billion so uh we have to redress that balance and one way to redress this balance is also to look at a rupe Ruble Arrangement where the Surplus that Russia holds in that trade balance can be invested in India after all the two leaders in 2019 and vlor stock agreed that Russia would I mean or both sides would invest and the investment figure would be about $50 billion by 2025 the two leaders would try and make that possible to some sort of currency Arrangement um and definitely we will try and increase our own access to the Russian Market through agricultur exports uh exports of increased Pharmaceuticals engineering Goods Etc so we need to redress that trade balance which is today very much in Russia’s favor uh and to look at how we can increase Investments we also look have to look at the defense side because after all Russia does account for about 60% of our defense platforms today uh there have been delays in some supplies of SP so Logistics agreement that could you know streamline some of these supplies try and get you know some of our much needed items uh you know ongoing I think would also be part of that effort and of course needless to say there is also the um you know people to people Factor um that the cultural side of it the educational side of it uh and finally technology technology is an important aspect of the relationship we are working on Space we are working on nuclear energy uh what is it that we can do to enhance that technology so I think the outcomes would be on those lines bilateral issues that are of great importance to India which gives us flexibility which is part of our strategic autonomy policy and I think which we have to ensure that we are working with all concerned and we are not working with only one uh or the other side of our uh Partnerships uh and and of course uh uh you know from the Russian side the defense side has been decreasing uh we have been diers ifying our own defense collaborations including with the West um but at the same time the Energy Mix has gone up with Russia providing much more of our energy requirements than before and I think that is very important not only in stabilizing our prices in India at a very difficult time but also stabilizing Global prices okay so our Imports of energy from Russia has been seen in that context you’ve set the context for this uh conversation very well hashan shla appreciate you taking our time to join us thank you very much sir thank you rul look more at the key takeaways in a bilateral context while multilateral issues and geopolitical issues will also get discussed I want to welcome uh Tatiana krea senior journalist from Russia we’ve got Colonel Ajay Shukla well-known strategic Affairs expert Nanda nuni Krishan is with us one of our top experts on the India Russia relationship I want to go across to T krea first because this is when Prime Minister Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin will be at dinner um we’ve spoken a lot about the expectations within the Indian government from Russia’s perspective Tana can you give us a sense of the expectations in Moscow around prime minister modi’s uh meeting this is the sixth time uh it seems he’s come to Moscow uh to Russia uh he’s been uh in 2015 December July then 17 18 19 so this is this is the sixth visit now so what’s your sense of the expectations in Moscow around the prime minister’s visit well it’s nice to to join you again uh you know I think that uh first and foremost we have to say that the Prime Minister this time Prime Minister Modi has been extremely lucky with the weather um that he didn’t catch the we’ve been having crazy weather before this so he’s extremely lucky to have come today of all things but I think the expectation generally um in in Moscow is very upbeat you know we’ve heard from the Kremlin saying that we take into account the general you know this friendly historically friendly relationship between Moscow and New Delhi and um the very fact that this is if I’m not mistaken the first foreign trip that prime minister is taking uh since uh winning the election you know that sends a message and we’re receiving it out here so very excited um you know the trade has increased during the past year there’s been so many improvements in that relationship and it’s been very fruitful for both countries so we’re we’re looking forward to see what comes out of this visit G Sal is reporting live from Moscow on prime minister modi’s State visit to Russia uh gorov um the key expectations in all the briefings and meetings that have happened with officials from the ministry of external Affairs what are they telling you what are the most likely key takeaways from from prime minister modi’s visit to Moscow this time Rahul the aim of this visit is to take the relationship to a new level and keep it futuristic traditionally it’s been a very very strong relationship between India and Russia over decades uh from the 50s when it started building up and Gathering steam to the 1970s you know the history 1971 War India Russia packed held India in Goods dead through the ggal war of 1999 and Beyond uh but it is not just restricted now to the Brahma supersonic cruise missile India and Russia want to take forward this relationship in critical technology from the drawing board stage so prime minister Narendra Modi as he meets the Russian President Vladimir Putin over this dinner the aim ra Rahul is that the two talk about taking this relationship making that transformational Swift shift and switch what does that mean that indiian scientists and Russian scientists sit together and start thinking of futuristic Technologies at the drawing board stage that is what we were told the students do their research together in India and in Russia build it together and then manufacture it together some components in Russia some components in India and put it together to export to the world make for each other make it and then export it to the world like brahmas space cooperation uh nuclear cooperation defense cooperation remains strong economy Remains the Bedrock uh in this transformation now the rupi ruble as you understand better the trade deficit uh $60 billion in Russia’s favor just $5 billion worth of India trade how do you change that how do you get rupi Rubble exchange which is the biggest hindrance apart from Western sanctions on Russia taking this relationship forward how do you overcome those problems that is the conversation that is taking place right now at the level of the dinner and then subsequently the directions that come from here Rahul from the Indian Prime Minister to his delegation and the Russian president to his delegation will set the tone for the conversation tomorrow morning and take it forward the aim is to have a result oriented approach a vision document may or may not come uh right now but keep it keep it as uh you know work in progress to ensure that there are positive outcomes not just in thought but in action on ground R I won’t hold you back from your live report gorov sa thank you very much for joining us Michael koulman joins us director at the south Asia Institute the Wilson Center uh at Washington DC this is a state visit that’s happening at a time when NATO leaders will be gathering in Washington DC for a NATO meeting from the 9th and 9th to the 11th of July uh from Washington what’s the view on Prime Minister Modi choosing Russia for his first state visit in his third term well certainly uh you know here in Washington uh it’s seen as as as not a as not a good thing um but I think that there’s there’s a lot to this story um but my my Broad View here is that the pageantry and the theater and the Optics that we’re going to be seeing over the next few days uh in Moscow have an intended audience that goes far beyond India and Russia and one of the main intended audiences is indeed uh Washington and Washington knows that um but I think that you the visit and and the state of the India Russia relationship now might not bode as poorly for the west and particularly the us as some might suggest I mean indeed I know that one of the goals of this Summit is to as you’re as as garan said take the relationship to another level but I think that the the main goal of this Summit is to essentially reinforce the strength and importance of the of the relationship in its current state and the current state of the relationship is one that certainly is very strong but it also has indicated certain things one is that um you know the trend lines of the relationship have not been as as positive as they had been in previous years we’ve seen for instance India’s share of uh of arms imports from Russia have gone down whereas India’s uh security ties with the US have never been stronger so I think that’s a significant point and I I another point I would make here is that um the the the India Russia relationship does I think put a bit of a check on growing Russia China cooperation which is seen as a good thing here in Washington if Russia wants to continue strong partnership with India which I imagine it does there are certain things that it’ll be need to be careful about doing and that includes among other things being sure not to suggest that it would be willing to take China’s side in the potential conflict between India and China so bottom line yes uh Washington is clearly not happy about this visit but it’s accepted it just as it’s accepted the fact that India will continue to have a significant relationship with Russia it will continue to import oil it’ll continue to have that security relationship but I think the view here and this I share this with you as well is that the Contour of the India Russia relationship today are not as strong not as sharp as they had been uh some years ago nandi Krishan you accept this that while India Russia continue to remain important Partners the relationship isn’t a patch of what it used to be before India became far closer to the US than it was in the past and that’s really the new reality you can say what you will but uh the fact is that India and the us today are closer than India and Russia and Russia is drawing closer uh to Beijing than to India firstly rul thank you for inviting me uh broadly speaking yes I mean I agree with you but let’s not forget that Russia is not the Soviet Union so I think comparing the Russian relationship which we had when the Soviet Union was around to the current relationship with the United States is a bit of Apple and oranges so that is one aspect the second part is that I think uh it is self evident that uh India’s primary uh concern is India’s development uh in that the United States and the West have a significant role to play uh but uh given the geopolitics of Asia India is not about to forget what uh Russia can contribute and I think Michael correctly pointed out that Russia playing neutral in the conflict between India and Russia should be seen in Washington as a positive sign not only in Washington but across the globe because that would mean that there is one more check to China’s emergence as a aimon at least on the Asian continent and uh I also think that you have to take the size of the Russian economy into view before passing judgment on the depth and uh width of the relationship with Russia given that Russia is 1 and a half trillion economy India is already a 3 trillion economy so the relationship of the past when Soviet Union was the giver and India the taker I think may have actually changed and this is the new reality that I think Mr Modi and Putin will be discussing Colonel Shukla from a weapons perspective from the lens of the Indian Armed Forces which are the weapon systems which you think India would still want to buy from Russia or do you think given the reality of how in the recent past Russia hasn’t really been a reliable supplier of supplies and incili that India really shouldn’t be apart from things like the S400 uh missile defense system where you don’t really get that kind of a system from anywhere else so apart from things which you can’t pick up from anywhere else are there still weapon systems that India is actively talking to and should be buying from Russia in your view uh just uh one quick point before I answer your question and that is that uh the India Russia annual Summit has been a feature of the relationship from 2000 when uh you know the disastrous presidency of Boris yelen came to an end and Putin and uh vajpai started off this annual tradition and it has continued without interruption for a long time it’s a it’s a it’s a highly symbolic sort of uh manifestation of their uh actual closeness uh as far as the uh the Weaponry that you’re talking about uh India is already getting Weaponry from the Soviet from uh Russia uh that it was sort of not likely to get from America the S400 you mentioned yourself uh but there is also the the Strategic weapon systems uh the SSN that India will be building that’s uh the the submarine nuclear sub uh the these are all uh weapon systems that are critical to India’s defense uh and you know the the the the American side uh is far less inclined to play ball on these weapon systems than the Russian side uh as far as the the China relationship goes uh it goes without saying everybody in the on the panel has been I’m I note unanimous on the on the fact that uh India needs to balance the relationship with China with the Russia relationship so I think uh all in all this 2 and a half year Gap has been uh sort of not a very welcome sign uh but it is ascribable to the covid uh pandemic uh to the sort of Ukraine war and so on uh I think that the relations with the the Russians will level back again fall an evil kill and uh the weapon systems that you mentioned will continue to flow nand then how do you view President Putin’s uh mind on the question of India given that circumstances are forcing him closer to Xi Jinping and China in the Russian State and in the president’s own mind how do you think they perceive India and Prime Minister Modi at this moment well uh if anyone can see into Putin’s mind I mean that is the first challenge uh but uh I think as the Russian State goes Putin is one of of the strongest voies in the Russian establishment for a robust India Russia relationship as in any country there are multiple views in the Russian establishment and uh they are not all necessarily favorable towards India so the fact that the head of the government is invested in this relationship personally invested uh speaks a lot uh I also think that the Russian establishment is well aware of the speculation across the globe about the Russia China relationship and given the mentality they have inherited from the Soviet Union I doubt that they would be willing to to play second fiddle to uh any other power and uh after all I mean just as a sort of historical aside they walked away from a relationship in the with the West because they did not want to be a junior partner so I cannot seeing them agreeing to be a junior partner to China but let’s ask that question to taana taana the sense in the world is that now circumstances are forcing President Putin who’s a very proud man leading a great country to have to play second fiddle to Beijing and to Shi Jinping I think um you know in general when it comes to making sense of you know and this is the beautiful part about um you know the relationships between Russia and China and Russia and India is that in the bricks block there is an understanding that we accept you know the the Rel relationships are kind of there’s no one standard which is uh kind of the definition of all of the foreign blocks the Western blocks there’s always you know one standard of relationship and everybody aderes and it’s usually the American one um so the worst thing uh to do in this situation I think is to judge any type of relationship relationship between Moscow and and Beijing the relationship between Moscow and New Delhi by Western standards and try to look you know you can’t see the relationship from outside uh and and usually the uh what you call you know the view from you know the um perspective of the world it’s usually um not even a perspective it’s kind of uh a narrative that everybody’s trying to push uh to you know to kind of meddle in that relationship uh but I think that’s the strength of the the communication within Brick’s block is that everybody except you know everybody uh we’re pushing for multi-polar worlds uh with the the India and Moscow have been extremely successful within this within accepting each other you know Michael koulman you know the fact is and I remember from my time while I was reporting from Washington DC on the Prime Minister State visit there there was some concern around India’s uh relationship continuing with Russia in the way that it was but you know K Shukla spoke of the submarine nuclear submarine project the S400 missile defense system so a lot of these weapon systems are pieces of equipment which despite increasing ties between Delhi and DC we still can’t buy from Washington and therefore if India requires that kind of equipment to take care of its National Security there’s only one place that you can pick it up from which is Moscow and therefore that’s naturally a relationship India cannot ever give up on yeah absolutely and um you know the current Administration um here in Washington is playing a long game when it comes to figuring out this this challenge of the Russia India defense relationship uh the current administration of course you know we have an election here later in the year we could have a new Administration in a few months things could change but for now the view is to try to over the longer term try to make the case that the US can start to provide uh the types of uh equipment and weaponry that Indie has long depended on from Russia but obviously right now that’s not an option because as you say there’s certain things that the US is not be able is not a position to provide that Russian could certainly provide and at a better cost Point uh for sure so this is a long-term challenge for for the US government but you know I I I would say this that right now you know the the the the the only major concern that the US has about India’s relationship with Russia is not the the oil imports I can accept that we’ve heard many times the administration say that it’s not violating the sanctions regime the the M the problem that the US has is the fact that you have Russian military equipment and defense equipment in India’s system so to speak at a moment when us arms and military equipment are flowing into India at a rate that they haven’t before and the concerns about the National Security implications for the US of having that reality of all these arms sensitive equipment going into India at a moment when you have this Russian equipment there as well it may be in misplace spere but it’s an understandable concern that us officials will have and that will continue so long as India and Russia continue to have that uh that defense relationship but again the administration is playing a long game here and wants to Hope in the coming years not the coming weeks and months the coming years to be able to be in a position along with some of its other partners that have been increasingly selling weapons to India like France and Israel that these countries can start replacing let me put that question to col Shukla is this an irreversible Trend you think the fact that we’re getting closer to countries like the United States France Israel when it comes to purchase a weapon moving away from Russia and at some point point in time the disentangle government could be near complete or do you think that there will always be some equipment like the nuclear submarines or like the missile defense system which only Russia will give the flip to this is that maybe Russia no longer is producing the kind of high-end weapon systems which India would need to buy from Moscow given a few years from now a lot of what they’re picking up may actually be coming from Beijing uh no I don’t think uh that is exactly the case uh I think that uh the India Russia relationship continues to dabble in Realms that are not open to uh other countries uh and which India is not going to get from uh the Western Powers you would have noticed that this ocus uh agreement Australia UK and and uh uh the United States uh have talked about transferring nuclear submarine technology to Australia and building basically UK designed submarines for Australia but India is not included in that uh in that uh Arrangement so uh there is there is a very strong set of relationships like like the oras and the five eyes that uh that bind together the Western powers and India is not invited to that uh thing at least not yet not in the immediate future either uh it is however invited to get Russian equipment it has already done two tranches of uh training come operation of the ins chakra uh Soviet submarine uh the the sort of Russian submarine I beg your pardon uh and uh you know that is something that there is a high degree of comfort in in the relationship between Russia and and India in these particular aspects so I think that the the the change this great uh in new alignment of India and the West is some sometimes overstated okay the arrangement with Russia continues and is I mean I don’t see indications of it falling through Okay so we’ve heard different perspectives we’ve heard from Delhi we’ve heard from Moscow we’ve heard from uh Washington DC we’ll track Prime Minister Modi State visit very closely

PM Modi, who boarded a flight from Delhi at 10.30 am today, arrived at the Vnukovo-II International Airport in Moscow at 5.10 pm. He was received by First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, Denis Manturov.
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