Report: 500k Wounded CRASHING Putin’s Economy!

Report: 500k Wounded CRASHING Putin’s Economy!

Russia’s staggering number of casualties in Ukraine isn’t just crushing Russia demographically it’s also going to crush the Russian budget just how bad is it going to be for Putin to pay all the families whose lives he’s ruined I’m Paul US Army Combat veteran let’s talk about it okay so this is a really interesting analysis from war on the Rocks uh which full disclosure I actually used to write for war on the Rocks um but there a great and often times fun publication uh but this analysis is actually of the estimated cost that Putin is going to incur in the given the number of wounded and dead soldiers within the Russian the Russia Ukraine conflict now they’re using the open source estimates as of May which we now know is actually lowballing it but Russia has likely incurred around 4,000 casual 4 100,000 casualties with over 100,000 of those dead right now here’s the thing Putin in order to continue to attract new volunteers to the Russian military right that he hasn’t been able to use conscription he’s had to rely on various forms of incentives or incentives uh coercion but the financial incentives are significant especially for two groups of people the the first is impoverished uh communities within Russia these are often linguistic minorities or people who are far away from the metropoles like St Petersburg and Moscow the other group is foreign Nationals who For Whom the Russian Ruble is comparatively valuable and so these two groups really are strongly incentivized with large payments and so a law passed before the war entitles the family of the solders who been killed for 3.3 million Rubles uh at about 90 to1 that’s uh what 10 $15,000 something in that range and the that’s an insurance payment an additional five million Ruble payment from the state wounded soldiers are entitled to 3 million Rubles per decree from the early days of the invasion of Ukraine so again let’s for context let’s get the exact number here uh 1 million rubles to USD so we’re using the same thing right every million Rubles is about $10,000 so we’ll just use that to kind of do the the napkin math in our head right so we’ve got $30,000 here another $50,000 for wounded soldiers right and Putin also announced a separate payment of 5 million Rubles to families right so $50,000 so a combined payment of it seems like around 100,000 USD right and combining all the above cost of uh payments yeah to a soldier killed in Ukraine actually 1.4 uh 140,000 USD so you see how incredibly incentive how incredibly powerful that incentive could be for uh an impoverished Community right as insane as that sounds but to know your family will be taken care of is actually a tremendous Comfort it’s one of the reasons why soldiers that deployed were almost required or strongly encouraged to get our own life insurance uh which would pay out to the tune of around a million dollars the difference is the key difference is that in 20 years of conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan we incurred approxim the number of Kia that Russia incurs in about a week so TW two decades of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan is offset by one week of Russian combat in Ukraine so that’s that’s helping you guys scale this problem and so when they run the numbers they find that actually the payouts would total for dead and wounded soldiers right 2.3 trillion rues that is 6% of Russia’s entire state budget but here’s the additional problem it’s not just one-time payouts those veterans are entitled to a level of medical care and as they point out that the Russian economy uh is going to take another 2% of their state budget if they want to meaningfully treat uh things like PTSD and other conditions chronic conditions that these soldiers are coming back with cuz remember Grievous wounds amputations right they require a continual level of support uh particularly again imagine Soldiers with serious abdominal injuries like it’s hard to understate how these kind of injuries require sometimes lifelong care and supervision you also have which Russia almost certainly won’t do but we do in the United States policies it say listen we understand that there are things and potential issues health issues that may have been incurred as a result of service that you won’t find out about until decades later right we’ll say hey agent orange is a classic example in the short term it didn’t cause injuries right but they found that wow a decade two decades after the war they said soldiers that were exposed to this stuff have a host of health problems that other soldiers don’t and that requires State spending in state care so there are of course the fact the reality is that Russia doesn’t really ever intend to probably treat any of these soldiers given that the number of Russian hospitals in in the whole country has actually declined 20% since 2012 there’s only 10 veterans hospitals in the entire country and a hospital focused on psychological Rehabilitation there’s only 32 beds in the whole country guys I think 32 people have been traumatized by watching Russian combat videos let alone the Russians in combat 32 Russians have probably gotten PTSD in the time it’s taken me to record this video and when you look at Russia’s overall budget this is going to be a huge flipping problem why because here is the Carnegie Endowment for pieces 2024 Russian budget breakdown in which yeah Russia’s planning on funding about a third of their budget with oil and gas sales sure that’s cool but the other part of that is going to come from two other sources taxes and a deficit deficit just means taking out loans now ask yourself right if you had to take out loans right the Russian interest rate is a little higher than the interest rate here in the old United States of America because again what would Russia have to pay you for you to loan them money given everything we know about the sanctions about the instability of the Russian system about the strains the Russian economy is under right in the United States we a reliable actor and and the market demands like 5% from the United States for Russia it’s 16% that’s the interest rate on their debt so these guys are in a tight tight Financial spot that 16% guys is like is like used car shitty credit level interest rates and that’s the Russian state so again you can imagine what the debt payments are when you’re financing this operation with a budget deficit right Russia is going to spend a ton on defense a ton on the social programs something like 6% of their entire GDP their whole economy not their state budget their whole economy is going to be soaked up by this war the war is the Russian economy at this point it’s one of the it’s the only growing sector but the problem is is that you cannot simply State the state cannot simply spend its way to economic growth right it can use it as a little bit of a supplement here and there to sometimes even help guide growth in certain sectors but you cannot sit there and be like we don’t need an economy the state is just going to buy and light it on fire which is literally what the Russian war machine is doing and it’s buying lives and also destroying them but the problem is that that’s not real economic growth it’s a it’s a it’s meant to create conditions for growth but so but because of the sanctions and because they’re literally killing all their productive workers that’s not going to happen for Russia but there’s one other way out one other way that Russia can beat this and that is the money printer it’s in fact likely the only way that Russia’s going to pull this off by gradual devaluation of the ruble that’s right Lads hyperinflation is coming to Russia right you cannot run this kind of operation indefinitely right and for context guys you’re like well America spending a lot on Ukraine too for context the amount that the United States in total has spent funding or and aiding Ukraine is about 1% of what Russia is spending it is about a third of a percent of US GDP it might not even be that high honestly a third of a percent by contrast again Russia 6% so this is a this is a Prius trying to out toe like a peterbill right they’re running in different directions and the Russia the Russians have put their pedal to the absolute medal but there are economy is still just a little Prius tires are turning that shitty engine is just going right meanwhile the Peterbilt driver is just he’s in first gear he’s he’s he’s barely tapped the gas and that is the scale of the way this fighting is going right Russia’s had to pull out almost all the stops in its economy and in contrast the US is like oh yeah we got more the artillery lying around yeah how much it could it cost us for right like if the US was making a 100 Grand a year we have spent the equivalent of 30 bucks on funding Ukraine right if you make 100 Grand and you’ve were willing to spot a friend 30 bucks for what’s that get you like a two Subway sandwiches at this point um I don’t in case you didn’t knows I don’t go out to get much fast food right if you were ever willing if you make a 100 Grand and you ever spotted a friend 30 bucks that’s the equivalent of what the US is doing uh that’s the scale of USA to Ukraine right by contrast Russia’s this is the equivalent of a $6,000 expense right so if you make a 100 Grand and you go 6,000 dude I can’t I can’t have another one of these expenses come up like this is this is my entire emergency fund right so that’s the context here so rip to the Russians but we’re also going to talk about the fact that for the ukrainians they’re asking that they want to punish the Russian State more they’re begging please let us smoke more Russian oil facilities and we’re going to talk about that in a second but first have you picked up your strike gum you should because if you need a caffeine boost strike gum is the solution it’s the zero sugar energy drink alternative 90 milligrams of caffeine in every piece it’s made in the USA veteran owned this this little puppy has the equivalent of a Red Bull of a monster of an amp energy worth of caffeine but without any of the sugar plus you’re not hauling around a can if you do anything with your hands from hairdresser to electrician you know that you can’t what are you going to do your job and and sip a drink no strike gum solves this you keep it in your pocket you pop it in you chew it it’s mint flavored so there’s nothing weird about it your breath will smell better unlike a Red Bull it makes just smell like a Red Bull anyway strike gum.com that’s where you can get your new user discounts and your first responder discounts and uh you know you could sign up for all our sales we just wrapped up our fourth of July sale but we’re also on Amazon you can go to Amazon just plug in strike gum Bo and it’s all there so pick it up right one click order the link is in the description okay so let’s talk about zinski zalinsky is out here saying yo it is crazy that the US is not letting us hit targets inside Russia especially they say listen this is sort of absurd because as discussed Russia is hitting not just military Targets in Ukraine Russia’s hitting just random targets they hit a children’s cancer hospital like like what’s wrong with you guys now some of it is because Russia is recklessly indifferent right I maintain that Russia doesn’t have enough cruise missiles that’s going to hit a children’s cancer hospital just to be an like if it had a bunch if it was artillery shells yeah Russia would just be like yeah them kids right Putin’s an but when you only have like two cruise missiles a month that you can produce and that’s sort of what Russia has I don’t think they wasted them on the Children’s Cancer Hospital deliberately I think what happened is in order to thwart air defenses Russia’s been flying its cruise missiles really low right like really recklessly low and that affects the missile’s ability to guide itself accurately onto a Target it also means that if there’s uh a building in the way of its final like approach it may just run into that and that’s what I think may have happened they may have been targeting like another government building in Kev or something um but still Reckless indifference it’s like drunk driving I didn’t mean to hit that kid when I was driving drunk I just did six stupid decisions leading up to it is is is the same thing as deliberately committing murder almost it’s manslaughter but that’s you know what I mean so zinsky saying listen Russia gets to play fast and loose with the rules and we can’t hit back now I Ukraine would not be allowed and I don’t think they would want to hit Russian like Children’s Hospitals because they’re not and I but what they do want to do is Target Russian military sites he says it’s a crazy question we can’t answer and attack Russian military sites in Russia because the military base literally the military base where they’re launching these cruise missiles was too far away we aren’t allowed to strike it he’s like we just have to sit there and take it even though we know exactly where these cruise missiles are being launched from right now Stenberg Jen Stenberg NATO head acknowledge that Ukraine’s right of self-defense includes their right to strike legitimate military Targets on the Terr of Russia and certainly a military site that is launching cruise missiles Falls in that category and it seems like the US has told Ukraine if Russia’s imminently planning on striking you from a site you can hit it but the problem is is that there’s not very distant cruise missile sites are are you’re not going to have enough notice right you can just be like the cruise missile site just de facto exists its existence is constantly ready to strike Ukrainian targets so but we also know that Ukraine is targeting more and more Russian oil facilities in fact Ukrainian efforts have reduced Russian oil output by up to 17% this year and again given that it funds a third of Russia’s budget you see how that is really hitting Putin where it hurts and potentially the Russian people they are going to get pissed off if inflation makes you mad at 7 9 10% right and it’s coming down here in the west Russia’s not going to have that Russia’s looking at 16% M minimum that’s if they don’t turn on the money printer and they will and they will so the Russians are going to end up in a serious cost of living crisis and it’s going to be made worse by the Ukrainian tactic if they’re allowed to use the longrange missiles that the West provides them now the UK is close rumors that there’s also a lot of rumors that the uh us is also very close it was the thing zalinsky asked Biden for again he asked Biden very publicly so it likely also got communicated to his AIDS but it was meant to to emphatically drive home the point that this is so important that if zalinsky could ask Biden one thing he was like let me shoot the goddamn Russian cruise missile bases please so Russia of course is out here to cause trouble it’s still causing trouble in fact there’s more dude this is this is the C this is just a crazy news day and I don’t know how else to like it’s just it’s all it’s all happening dudes it’s all happening right it’s the NATO conference right Russia is continuing to play games with GPS in fact there’s still extensive GPS blocking going on near Finland and remember this jamming signal also impacts things like uh Pilots right a Finnish Maritime pilot recently said he experienced massive GPS jamming and radar interference literally two days ago in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland right and that’s dangerous and it’s dangerous and it means that the GPS Jammers that Russia was experimenting with and is using in Ukraine to thwart uh Precision guided weapons is now being expanded right to help deter Finland a NATO country so again this is a dangerous game that Putin is playing right and they Finnish authorities conf basically confirmed this incident saying there was an unusually high level of GPS malfunctions right and this is believed to be part of this isn’t an act accident and they think this isn’t like a Russian this isn’t Russia targeting a a this isn’t Russia testing this is Russia targeting right this is part of Russia’s hybrid campaign against NATO States and it’s I I think it’s some of it there’s some aspects of this campaign and I might talk about that in a separate video because it’s intensifying where Russia’s targeting actual like Ukraine Aid Ukraine like Munitions providers but I think this is part of Russia’s deterrent strategy Russia says listen you know Finland now you’re NATO member you know that we don’t have a huge military backup on this part of our border but Russia needs to signal to Finland we have other capabilities that you don’t fully understand and by launching this GPS they’re saying just know that if you trying to pull something Russia could turn off your GPS you wouldn’t know where to go you’d be all confused right and Russia’s own GPS alternative is not that accurate but it’s not going to be jammed not inside Russia so this is a a a potentially big deal simply that it’s Russia demonstrating a capacity but you know who’s not going to learn about this the Russians they’re blocking YouTube in the fall they say it’s because of technical issues but obviously uh YouTube doesn’t have these technical problems in literally any other country on Earth and so things will get worse in July and August meaning YouTube functionality will worsen in some regions and then they’re going to wrap it up in September the blocking of YouTube will start so to my Russian viewers sorry Bros it is what it is anyway guys that’s all I had of course a huge thank you to all the members of combat fet news if you haven’t become a member they now do twice weekly uncensored combat footage and a weekly Q&A that you can ask me any question personal stuff you can ask me tactical stuff scenarios what ifs more strike gum whatever you want and oh yeah you 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Original Video:
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/50.1563/36.5534
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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Original Video:
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/50.1563/36.5534
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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