With odds of a Trump win rising, here’s what it could mean for Europe’s economy
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/15/what-a-trump-presidency-could-mean-for-europes-economy.html
by krazydude22
With odds of a Trump win rising, here’s what it could mean for Europe’s economy
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/15/what-a-trump-presidency-could-mean-for-europes-economy.html
by krazydude22
26 comments
With markets in recent weeks cranking up their bets that Donald Trump will win the presidential election, Goldman Sachs economists say that another term for the former U.S. leader could have “profound implications” for the euro area’s economy.
“Our baseline estimates point to a sizeable GDP [gross domestic product] hit of around 1% with a modest 0.1pp [percentage point] lift to inflation,” Goldman Sachs’ Jari Stehn and James Moberly said in a note published Friday before the Saturday assassination attempt.
“Trump’s re-election would thus pose a significant downside risk to our otherwise constructive growth forecast for the Euro area.”
Trade policy uncertainty, added defense and security pressures and spillover effects from U.S. domestic policies on, for example, taxes could impact Europe, they explained.
How the hell are we all beholden to one single country?
Somebody explain it like I’m 5: Why would more people vote for this guy than before?
I’m old enough to remember these headlines when he got in that all American companies would be forced back to America and the money would dry up during his presidency from foreign investment.
It actually increased….
I’m more scared of what it could mean for our social and environmental policies and our rights. Since the last time this man was in power, we now have far-right parties in our parliaments wasting everybody’s time talking about patriotism and “protecting” traditional values.
Absolute nothing burger of a article..
If American youth don’t wake up, were kinda fucked.
This free promotion Trump is getting, is crazy. And the image they got of Trump is just iconic…
So that would be a fucking nightmare
>With odds of a Trump win rising
Same ~~journliasts~~ odds that already decided Le Pen would have won months before the elections and were proven wrong.
Also same odds that already decided Trump won in 2020 and made 6th January possible.
I wouldn’t trust those kind of articles.
I suspect Trump getting re-elected won’t have a massive impact on European economies. US policy is generally centered around the idea of making its stakeholders as much money as possible. That won’t change under Trump, certainly not enough to matter in 4 years.
Where I’d be more worried if I were Europe is in defense. If Trump is elected I think our commitment to Ukraine will reduce or maybe go away all together. And Trump’s general assholishness will further weaken NATO, even as the Congress (even many Republicans) will continue to defend NATO.
Europe: you wanted the cheap oil, and you wanted to use diplomacy as a way to earn Russias sense… now we’re all fucked
Poland is being smart, building it military to replace the US. As an American, I’m so sorry to my friends overseas. Russia has successfully corrupted America, and it is falling. I’m so ashamed of my country.
Wont change much. US industrial policy has always been hostile towards Europe, most people just didnt care about it / lacked the knowledge to care about it.
But America First didnt start with Trump and hasnt ended with Biden, quite the contrary.
I disagree with the statement. I think it’s becoming less and less likely that he will win. He will be rejected by the great majority of voters.
They need to root out more reliable allies 🤷♂️
Odds rising according to whom?
Higher odds = lower probability…
It means Canada can screw with him again and cut off the wood supplies
Will be difficult at the start, then will EU slowly turn into superpower
Headline writer doesn’t know what odds rising means. It’s the opposite of what they think it is.
Odds fall when something is perceived as being more likely to happen than it previously was. Otherwise bookmakers would go broke.
When something is perceived as less likely to happen than it was is when odds begin to rise. Bigger/rising odds = less chance.
With so many wakeup calls surely europe will get it’s shit together, right? Right?
It means Poland and the Baltic states should start thinking about getting their own nukes very soon.
It’s not economy we should be worried about. It’s about our defence. If he really forces Ukraine to surrender, then whole eastern EU and NATO is in grave danger. And I really don’t enjoy the thought of being forced to fight because some incompetent fucker across an ocean got elected.
he will lose, what’s happening now will backfire
Are they rising?