Rus Desperate Move: Ill-equipped Troops Target Key Ukr Route

Rus Desperate Move: Ill-equipped Troops Target Key Ukr Route

is Russia pushing to cut off Ukrainian units along a key highway but does Ukraine have other plans plus is Putin rolling out some of his most poorly equipped units I’m Paul US Army Combat veteran let’s talk about all of it okay so this is a really interesting story from the Kev independent uh saying that Russia is advancing towards a key highway in eastern Ukraine now we know that the denet oblast has been the site of Putin’s largest surge this is part of his uh summer offensive that that he’s been planning for some time and Ukrainian soldiers in ch of Yar are reporting that one of their key highways that they rely on for resupply uh the t t504 is in danger of being cut off by Russian forces now they the reality when we take a look at the map was here let me show you guys on Google Maps this is t504 here so you can see it runs uh East West uh through bmit through the north side of ianevski and South through chavar right so when we compare that to the control map you can quickly see where the problems start to emerge right for uh Ukrainian forces uh this is one of their largest highways right widest and and most intact so it means that a fairly high volume of of Aid or munition supplies can get into chavar through this highway right they likely take this route here turn left and then get it into chavar to distribute to the units in the fight right um but you can see that Russian forces are actually fairly close to cutting off the highway at least the points where it accesses chiv Yar the chivar proper right there’s also supposedly um according to this report another effort by Ukraine Russian forces excuse me uh to push into the highway um along this kind of Southern uh axis here um and try to cut it off that way but the fear uh is that the Russian uh offensive is likely trying to run the same basic Playbook they ran in Bachman in which they Advance a along the north and south flanks reduce the ability of these defending troops to receive resupply and then push into the center of the Town itself and this would track again with Russia’s kind of peac mealing strategy you can see as we work back over the course of several days though uh Russian forces have really struggled to make sizable ADV advances but they are able to do this kind of gradual creeping advance right as we move forward in time you can see them trying to seize uh territory along this Northern flank and a bit along this Southern flank as well but the real danger again is going to come if they’re able to likely take like this intersection here and this intersection here um again it becomes pretty obvious when you look at the map like this that this highway is just so key to getting into CH ofar and distributing uh additional Aid to these units in Conta right the Alternatives and they do discuss the Alternatives in this article it wouldn’t be a end a def a it wouldn’t require Ukraine to withdraw from chavar if it were to fall but Ukraine would have to Pivot to Alternatives and most of these Alternatives just aren’t that good you can see first off this North South Road uh that runs by kalanka is not really going to cut it uh you also have these two roadways here but these according to the soldiers interviewed in the article are much smaller roadways they simply can’t handle the high volume of traffic required to equip a large defense and more critically it would further concentrate Ukrainian uh resupply onto two roads and eventually even potentially as little as one road um and that would create a situation in which Russian forces could simply monitor these two roadways uh and interdict the uh Munitions and other resupply uh using artillery High Mars fpv drones Etc not that and you’re like well couldn’t they do that now it’s true right but the more roads you have the more routes the harder it is for Russian forces to monitor them all and uh interdict them all so the further it concentrates the harder it gets right and so in this instance we’re seeing something that’s I would estimate probably 50% of Ukraine’s total uh Supply to chavar units um is in danger being cut off which will again make these two roads simply bigger better targets um but Russia is pulling out all the stops to try to make this happen including deploying some units to the front that may not uh be exactly ready for the ready for prime time but if want to make sure you’re ready for your prime time hopefully it’s not a meatwave attack uh but you know if it’s hitting the gym right staying focused when you hit those afternoon doldrums at work you need a surge of caffeine and that’s why I created strike gum strike gum has 90 milligrams of caffeine in every piece right It’s Made in the USA veteran owned and yeah we pay a little bit more to have it manufactured in Denver but that gives you the confidence that when I talk about the fact that this has natural caffeine in it right not the weird labade encapsulated stuff and it tastes great it’s a refreshing mint flavor so your your 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supposedly underere equipped units initially intended to act as an operational Reserve so that means that Russian forces are committing their reserves into combat and Russia right so they’re saying that as of July 13th per Ukrainian military Observer Russian military command uh meant to form this 27th motor rifle division as an operational reserve and an operational Reserve is a term for a unit that as they point out is brought into battle in Soviet Doctrine um to in Soviet Doctrine it’s supposed to be to exploit a breakthrough um right once you’ve kind of opened a a breakthrough unit or you’re about to suffer a breakthrough you commit your reserve to either stabilize the situation or exploit it right but the key is you need that Reserve because of Soviet Doctrine is so pressure heavy and and I’m saying Soviet Doctrine because that’s when it was written but this is how Russian generals are still fighting they’re fighting with this constant pressure right imagine like a think of it like a dam right you’re always the water’s always exerting pressure against the dam but eventually somewhere in the dam boom a hole opens up and here’s the catch you need to make sure there’s water to pour through that hole that’s what the so the the Soviet Doctrine and therefore Russian Doctrine operational Reserve does they are meant to exploit the situation and actually widen the hole to allow even more forces to come through it’s essential to the Russian theory of Victory right and it’s exactly what happened in Tina might remember there was a issue with Ukrainian forces rotating there was again a a a hole in the uh line and Russia was the reason they were able to exploit it is because they had these operational Reserve units on standby that entered through and to took it would have been a small breakthrough and made it a much larger problem so the fact that the Russians don’t have a breakthrough right there isn’t a breakthrough happening in a diva or in tetk um the fact that they are deploying these units especially because uh right the 27th is actually staffed in part by the degraded remains of the 21st motor rifle Brigade um and other sort of heavily degraded and underere equipped units uh says that the Russian military command might actually be running out of troops and this aligns with other things that we have heard because we know that Russia took a phenomenal number of casualties even by Russian standards in May and June of this year losing 70,000 troops killed or wounded over the course of two months and that’s a problem because in those same two months even the high-end estimates say that Russia can mobilize about 25,000 troops a month meaning that they had a 20,000 troop deficit in those two months alone and so when you have that and you want to launch a big uh summer offensive you’ve got to find those troops somewhere so the answer is it seems like they’re taking what should be a reserve and they’re throwing it into battle right now now that has produced a lot of pressure on Ukrainian forces the pressures is significant and but the the key part is that for a a major offensive breakthrough to occur for Russia they need to not just be able to apply the pressure they need to exploit it if they break Ukrainian lines and right now there’s no exploitation Force available at least if this report is true and the units that are in the fighting are so underere equipped they’re likely taking even greater casualties so you see how that can escalate the cycle right as Ukrainian forces get more Aid they’re becoming more combat effective Russia whose forces are even poorly more poorly equipped are going to become less effective and they’re going to incur more casualties meaning that 20,000 Gap that 10,000 Soldier a month Gap it might actually be getting wider especially if Russia’s recruitment efforts start to slow somewhat uh which again I’m not not sure I haven’t seen evidence of that happening but I think it’s highly possible given that it doesn’t appear that Russia is is considering a general conscription a general mobilization um and this is in contrast to Ukraine which has ramped up its mobilization and conscription efforts so is it good news for Ukraine probably not in the short term but in the medium and long term it may just end up uh putting Putin behind the eightball especially in terms of his ability to raise the next Army uh that he’s going to need to fight in Ukraine because this one’s not going to last much longer anyway guys if you want to support the channel uh and get access to uncensored combat footage you want to become a member at combat vetne news.com you guys know that the carinal tier members get access to everything um they get access to the twice a week uncensored combat videos q&as and the Byam shoutouts right uh so a huge thank you to Martin bombb Gregory Pace Stuart Abel Daniel Brown James Ola Chris Holmes and Chris Gorsuch G gor um but if you want to support me as well you can also become a lieutenant 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Original Video:
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/50.1563/36.5534
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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Original Video:
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/50.1563/36.5534
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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