Heatwave smothers Ukraine as heavy fighting continues in Donbas I Ukraine: The Latest, Podcast

Heatwave smothers Ukraine as heavy fighting continues in Donbas I Ukraine: The Latest, Podcast

[Music] I’m David noes and this is Ukraine the latest today we analyze the heavy fighting around tetk as Russian forces push forward we bring you political and diplomatic updates from around the world and we speak to war crimes reporter Alesia Bea from the key independent about her new documentary he came back bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with Victory the first duty of my government is security and defense to make clear our unshakable support of NATO and with our allies towards Ukraine ke stand strong nobody’s going to break us we’re strong we’re Ukraine is just a note from us that this episode contains discussion of extreme sexual violence and cruelty it’s Monday the 15th of July 2 years and 147 days since the fullscale invasion began and today I’m joined in the studio by associate editor Dominick Nichols an assistant comment editor Francis sternley well hi David hello team so let’s start off with a sort of General overview and I’m afraid it is brief because it is so regular but civilian casualties killed and wounded reported across Ukraine over the weekend from drone guided bombs artillery attacks and More in donet haon H Petrov and sui oblasts there were also attacks in Lans M and zapia oblast but no casualties reported there but now let’s zoom into the to the dast a little bit and the situation near the city of tetk so about we’re now about 40ks north of Don City 20K south of bmsh that kind of area the situation there is said by Ukraine’s general staff this morning to be tense in their words heavy fighting there and in the Village of New York which is a couple of kilometers to its South remember we we spoke about New York last week um it is the spelling well some bastardization of it but it is the New York of of us um Fame their settlers from Ukraine went to the US and returned and so named the town New York so it’s not a typo so that area is is very under heavy bombardment now tents I take to be a bit of an understatement having looked at this stuff for nearly two and a half years now I think the Ukrainian general staff are a bit on the swingometer between British statement and others hyperbole I think it’s a bit more on the Brit side so when they say it’s tense I take that to mean it’s pretty dire and hanging on anyway we know Russia has increased their forces around the Don area since June they’re fighting heavily in that area really pushing to try and get the big cities of slovian Kos on that that kind of area now the general staff say the heaviest fighting although it’s t round Tourette the heaviest fighting what they call the hottest situation is in the area concentrated around p go about 40ks West there’s almost a sort of three-pronged attack through the center of the dbass with this area in procross being the southern bmsh in the center and then pushing around to the north of the central bit Ukrainian troops say they fought off Russian advances near H to the to the north obviously but also Kuan lman CES and Kor that’s essentially the whole of the Eastern front so very very active meanwhile Russian air defense units say they destroyed 15 Ukrainian drones in separate attacks targeting bans or blast last night this comes from Russian Governor Alexander bamas on telegram so according to bamas there were no casualties or damage ke’s not commented on this alleged attack Brans you may remember is the bit of Russia just to the Northeast well a couple hundred K Northeast of ke it’s is the bit the borders Ukraine and bellarus it’s snook in that sort of join there but further east from there go go about another 300 km to uh north east of harke and Russian authorities in lipet oblas also reported a drone Strike last night they say an electrical substation was hit no no further details known there it’s important to note there’s a lot of comment in the Ukrainian media today about the heat wave that’s gripping Central and Eastern Europe at the moment so this fighting is being conducted in a very intense Heat Wave foreign emergency breakdowns energy infrastructure facilities have been reported in Western Ukraine due to the heat wave this comes out of the country’s energy Ministry on telegram yesterday reported by the new voice of Ukraine that’s an online media outlet they say the hot weather and increased use of air conditioning has led to much greater increased or much greater electricity demand a high voltage transmission line in one of Ukraine’s Western oblasts was temporarily shut down due to a fire caused by the heat power later restored fire put out and then in another incident a high voltage substation failed over the weekend causing a black out on the transmission line between Ukraine and mova the substation fire again put down to the heat was later extinguished and just to put it in in some sort of context last Thursday ke experienced the the highest temperature it has done 34.2 Centigrade surpassing the previous record set at the end of the 19th century I mean that’s hot that’s not that’s not massively hot for some parts of the country but it supposed to be hotter further west and it ain’t any fun at all in that temperature fighting running around whether or not you’re wearing body armor it is extremely debilitating now then wildfires have spread around in Russia as well uh so the port of nov rois where the Black Sea Fleet is basically now contained experiened wildfires and evacuations so this comes from mayor Andre kenko he just declared a state of emergency yesterday then this morning he said that more than 300 people including workers from the emergency situations Ministry have been fighting fires in the area about 500 people in total been evacuated boats been put on standby to facilitate the rescue from people up and down the coast in Russia so extremely hot temperatures will be affecting the way the war is prosecuted now then back in Ukraine interesting story here ke independent reporting that the general staff of Ukraine have said this morning that the the head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Alexander cerski has ordered an inspection of the 59th separate moot ized Brigade due to the unit’s recent losses now this announcement hasn’t been linked to but comes only a few days uh after in fact I think one day after um the medic Katarina polishuk who was in the plant in marup she called on CI and president zalinski to investigate the 59th separate motorized Brigade over the alleged misconduct of its commander who she names as bodan shevchuk now in a Facebook post yesterday she said quote since thousands of soldiers remain in the combat zone under Chev chuks leadership I ask you commander-in-chief to pay heed and conduct an internal investigation she accused Chev chuk of what she says are criminal orders negligence actions that resulted in the deaths of a large number of troops as well as careerism removal of dissenting commanders and other transgressions now the general staff Ukraine’s general staff in their statement this morning didn’t as I say didn’t explicitly name either polishuk or Chev chuk and did not mention the circumstances of any losses or the reason for this investigation but it is unusual well it may not be unusual for for cersi to go around and do a deep dive into unit or formations business you’d think that goes partly with a day job but for them to make this known especially just after the Facebook post I think is somewhat unusual so the 59th Brigade as far as we know is deployed near crash norka that’s in the donet oblast about 10ks west of Donette City and K a poly shook she was captured by Russia in May 22 in marup in the avol plant when it fell into Russian hands she was released uh she’s a medic she was released with over 200 soldiers later on towards the end of 2022 and then went back to the front join the 59th Brigade now then while praising the unit’s previous commanders she said that shevchuk was appointed to the position in April 2024 through what she says a family ties in the top military leadership and although she’s no longer in the military which Maybe why she feels she can speak out she said because of Chev chuks inhuman and unprofessional attitude I was forced to stop cooperating with the unit adding that not everybody has the chance to resist the criminal orders aimed solely at winning extra Stars by this man now you may remember last month president zalinski dismissed the commander of the Joint Forces liutenant General Yuri sodol so he’s he’s got form on taking action if he feels it necessary so I thought this is quite an interesting story if it does shine a light into some of the going on at at unit level obviously we can’t verify any of these claims by m polishuk but if General cers is decided to take a look on the back of it then there should be some statement one way or the other fairly soon I would imagine just one last one for me David Serge kitzia that’s Ukraine’s representative at the UN has tweeted this morning quoting Demitri penchuk who’s a spokesperson for the naval forces who says that Russia has withdrawn the last Patrol ship of its Black Sea Fleet from occupied Crimea now at the beginning of the full scale Invasion it’s thought that Russia had 74 ships making up the Black Sea Fleet and over well since then Ukraine has destroyed or disabled at least a third of it is what the the numbers suggest Ukraine is said to have managed to damage or sync dozens of ships using Maritime drones called the mura that’s mostly by the GU by the military intelligence and the wide mod or caby that’s the sbu the the security service of Ukraine and a few other similar methods by the naval forces now if that’s the case if the Black Sea Fleet is no longer in occupied Crimea that is very significant I think we know that they’ve been largely pulled back to Novar rois there’s also the naval base in Georgia that we spoke about last week that they’re trying to develop but very very significant if Crimea no longer has a significant or with any Naval platform presence there will obviously be we think the headqu quarters of the Black Sea Fleet may still be there but if there’s no actual physical platforms ships and and submarines then that is a very significant development I’ll take a pause there David well thank you very much Dom for all of those updates Francis dley can I come to you I know you were on yesterday so there must be a lot to talk about in the political and diplomatic space absolutely David well what an extraordinary weekend it’s been in Friday’s episode we were reflecting on President Biden’s political survival today we reflect on Donald Trump’s mortal survival and the implications of that assassination attempt on the presidential campaign I won’t repeat the details of what happened here you’ll be well informed at home no doubt and it’s not strictly relevant for our purposes on Ukraine the latest but suffice to say he is extremely lucky to be alive a literal brush with death as one would expect there was a wave of cond dnation from world leaders over the weekend including zinski who said that he wished former president Trump a speedy recovery he said he was appalled to learn about the shooting and expressed his condolences to the relatives of The Spectator who was killed in the attack such violence has no justification and no place anywhere in the world he said I wish America emerges stronger from this that Echoes the sentiment from many Western leaders that regardless of one’s views on Donald Trump there can be no justification for violence seeking to Snuff out democracy the Kremlin unsurprisingly also commented though were Keen to assign blame to Biden’s Democratic party for stoking divisions the photography from the event especially the one featuring a bloodied Trump with his fist raised lifted by Secret Service agents as the Stars and Stripes waves finally behind him is in figurative terms iconic and immensely powerful politically compositionally it is perfect akin to a great painting of the Renaissance or the Romantic Era and has subconscious echos of the raising of the flag of eima a pet surprise winning photograph of that there can be no doubt for many that image alone will win Trump the presidency in November I just say off the bat that I am inclined to agree with that perspective as things stand not least because Trump’s tough guy image exposes yet further Biden’s fragility assuming Biden is the candidate but also because some symbols like ideas are bulletproof I also think that it has statistically improved Biden’s chances of remaining the Democratic candidate for two reasons one because it’s taken the wind out of his opponent’s sales the news can only handle one major story at a time as we often learn here in Telegraph towers and two because I think an event like this inclines many people towards a period of stability not instability which the removal of Biden would ensure but it would I could be wrong regarding it effectively securing a trump Victory and I should say I really welcome hearing from you if you’re listening in America on that question the famous poller and commentator Frank Lun wrote a fascinating piece for the telegraph yesterday where he said and I quote I’ve heard suggestions online of a trump Landslide carrying the Republican party to Victory by historic margins but the Assumption behind that prophecy is that there are enough voters willing to change their minds there aren’t even now he goes on as a pollster and analyst for nearly four decades I’ve learned to identify those who claim to be undecided but do in fact have a definite candidate preference with election day now in sight just 4% of the American electorate are truly undecided the smallest percentage in decades of presidential campaigns everyone has already chosen signs and the few that haven’t are most likely to choose no one at all and yet as he writes later in the piece it has galvanized the former president supporters quote Trump voters are energized Biden’s voters are demoralized the chances of his supporters not voting for him now he says have been reduced and that could prove decisive now the potential ramifications of a trump victory in November for Ukraine are welln and many would argue that Western leaders especially in Europe must now prepare for that outcome but as I say very much welcome American listeners perspectives on this question and its impact on the likelihood of people voting for Trump over there now in other news turning to Europe the Estonian prime minister K Callis dubbed by many as Europe’s Iron Lady as a nod to Margaret Factor during the Cold War has resigned in order to become head of EU diplomacy it’s high representative of the union for foreign affairs and security policy being the formal title a massive development as we reported I’ve just been reading her long resignation statement which focuses mostly on domestic policies as one would expect but offers some interesting Reflections in the Ukraine context too she writes being prime minister has clearly taught me one thing no crisis comes alone and no crisis is alike in the second half of 2021 we had just started to come to terms with covid when Russia launched an energy attack on Europe and in fact the whole world limiting its natural grass supplies unfortunately it got even worse already in the summer of 2021 we received information that Russia was planning to attack Ukraine I introduced the system of security cabinets where all government ministers received reviews of the security situation and we started making plans of how to act if Russia should attack I have to admit that even on the evening of February 23rd 22 I hoped that Russia would not make this move and all those Western Europeans who said it would not happen were right unfortunately we in Estonia who know Russia better were right and it became clear to everyone that the manipulation of energy prices was also part of the Russians preparation for a full-scale attack on their neighbor in 3 days the Russians hope to capture keev destroy the Ukrainian leadership and overthrow the puppet government subordinate to the Kremlin as we know it didn’t work out that way it quickly became clear that the Russian army was not the second strongest army in the world but the second strongest Army in Ukraine and later kalis says Russia is very good at adding fuel to the small fires that already exist in our society so that they become big fires and we are at each other’s throats a fascinating reflective piece from her and just lastly David one final update again in the EU context Politico reports that EU Foreign Affairs ministers are set to snub Hungary by organizing their own Foreign Affairs Summit in August instead of traveling to Budapest for Victor orban’s event Hungary holds of course the rotating presidency of the EU Council and plans to host a foreign affairs Summit in Budapest in August a Prime opportunity for Orban to try to shape the Block’s foreign policy agenda as we’ve discussed but after Orban has obstructed aid for Ukraine these self-styled peace visits to Putin and shei he is very very unpopular among mer many foreign ministers in Europe who’ve been hunting for a way to avoid becoming props in what they believe to be his propaganda show boycotting as Politico says what it’s supposed to be for a stellar event for for the country and indeed already they report that France and Germany are signed up to this and there are apparently many other EU countries said to be following suit and I imagine if France and Germany have agreed then most will follow again a symbolic move David but as we were talking about only a moment ago symbols can carry great power indeed so that’s where we are in the geopolitical realm at the moment an extraordinary period but I know we’ve been saying that for almost two years now well thank you very much Francis Dom before we go to our final thoughts I don’t think this needs to be a long section but we good to pick your brains just a little bit on the realities of fighting in a heat wve in extreme heat how does that impact soldiers and kit what kind of precautions do you need to take and how does it shape the campaign I mean I know you’ve got experience of this well in a nutshell tldr it just slows everything down it’s exhausting it’s horrific I only did it in Iraq it was hot enough in in Afghanistan but I did a winter tour there thankfully but in Iraq in the middle of the summer it was just you just can’t you can’t function after a few minutes you’re constantly drinking water so that’s adds to the logistical Supply you’re going through your kit quickly sorry at the back but you’re just sweating through all your stuff it’s just it’s just falling apart your shirts just fall apart you’ve got the body armor as well if most people are wearing that now you just can’t think straight a mate of mine in the Raw Marines said that the addition of body armor and heat meant that all movement below section level just ceased to happen so you got a platoon of about let’s say 30 people roughly you’ve generally got a section of of eight people you got three sections making 24 um 24 yep and then you got your platoon your headquarters if you like of your platoon commander and your signaler and maybe a medic as well so makes up about 27 people makes up a platoon but a section eight people is the basic Lego block if you like of a of the briti British military infantry now that section is split into two far teams of four people and each of those far teams is split into pairs so you work with a buddy and you work in pairs and you cover your buddy while he or she moves and each of your pairs working with another pair that makes up the far team that fire team’s working as part of a section so the point I’m making is that you can get down you can get some very you get a lot of people moving all about the place which offers great tactical Advantage so the lowest building block as there should be would be a a pair of soldiers now I say my mate in the Raw Marines was saying that in Iraq and in Afghanistan in the real the heat of the summer but with body armor and the additional heat there was no movement you couldn’t break down below that sort of section level of eight people just because you couldn’t you can’t Sprint short distances get down observe the enemy move raise your rifle fire move again all that kind of stuff it just doesn’t work so everything slows down it makes you much less technically Nimble you’re more easily fixed and if it has that effect on people it also affects vehicles and aircraft and all the rest of it the temperatures of your of your oils and your fuel is sometimes uh degraded it can burst pipes in the engines if it gets too hot you can easily start fires all the rest of it it’s just utterly wearisome there’s no sort of magic Gold Dust here that makes soldiers operate any particular difference to all the rest of us we know what it’s like when it’s extremely hot and we all get a bit flagged and have to have a little breather where it’s exactly the same but just on steroids quite frankly it’s just horrendous when you got all that stuff and that’s just getting over the line then you actually you know get have to get on with the mission no it’s extremely debilitating I wouldn’t recommend that as a summer Pastime well thank you very much Dom for that insight there Francis can I come to you just again just a brief overview maybe of some historical examples of extreme heat and how that shapes campaigns the point here is just to give us some Frameworks of understanding when we look at the next few weeks in Ukraine I got very dehydrated walking across a field once um no this is a fascinating question as you say David heat shapes war and and one can look at many historical examples from the past to see that just at the top of my head of course which is relevant to the Russia context the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan saw extreme temperatures which made fighting there very very challenging for the Soviet forces of course a major defeat for them which helped contribute to the precipitation of the collapse of the Soviet Union is often cited in the Ukraine context as an example of a war that can drag on for a long time but ultimately lead to a Russian LED of course it was the Soviet Union separate from Russia important to say that but a Russian Le campaign from the Kremlin Persian Gulf War another good example from the early 1990s Coalition forces Operation Desert Storm had major ramifications of course for them and you can go far further back alamain as well I remember reading several books about alamain campaign I knew someone once who was a Desert Rat many years ago who F fought in that war and that campaign and the heat of course was infamous being fought in a desert a hamper for particularly material so equipment heavy Weaponry there are numerous examples of soldiers weighed down with equipment for whom it meant that they were very very impeded in their ability to be able to operate or going all the way back from Alexander the Great when he forced them to march in extreme temperatures and I think I’m right in saying it’s in Orion where talks about his army is suffering extreme heat and he’s given water as the commander and he famously holds up The Cask of water it may even be in a helmet and then pours it out in front of his soldiers to show that he will not drink if they can’t drink one of those great moments of again symbolism that inspired the troops in order to be able to get them across the desert but as I say this is one of the known attributes of War which just like winter which we talk more often in the Ukraine context can have an extensive impact on the battlefield and history shows us that so it’s worth mon monitoring even if it’s in the short term that does have ramifications on the battlefield at this intense moment David thank you Dom and Francis he came back is a new documentary from the Kev independent on sexual crimes committed by Russian forces during the occupation of Kev and her SAA blasts in the early stages of the full-scale invasion two women told journalists from the Outlet’s war crimes investigations unit about what they went through and their search for justice the journalists then identified soldiers who committed rape and their Superior officers the documentary is harrowing and Stark do go and watch it the links are in the show notes I spoke to war crimes reporter and author of the documentary Alesia beer about her work here’s our conversation Alesia thank you so much for your time before we talk about your documentary would you start just by uh telling us a bit about yourself and your work I’m a journalist of the war crimes investigations unit in the cave independent my my first documentary here was about uh deportation of Ukrainian children from the city in theet region maral to Russia we identified more than 20 children who were deported from maral and we also identified families who took them to their houses to their families and my new documentary is about sexual violence during the war the document is called he came back tracking down perpetrators of sexual violence in Russia’s War can you tell us about this documentary Alesia who did you speak to and uh what did you hear our team has been investigating sexual violence and recorded to interviews with women who bravely shared their stories to have those interviews with them was quite a challenge for us the survivors don’t dare to speak out due to stigma condemnation shame it’s something they want to forget and never mention again uh they don’t even want to DARE they don’t even dare to talk about it in their own families but thank those two women we recorded their stories we did a lot of job to identify those Russian militaries who committed sexual violence against them and also we identified commanders of those war criminals listeners will be able to hear the details of these women’s stories as You’ said they share them and it’s incredibly Brave and obviously hugely upsetting to hear it I don’t propose that we go into detail on that now let’s talk a little bit more about your role in tracking down the soldiers who did this where did you start with that process we worked on this story for 10 months and of course the biggest challenge for us was to find those survivors who would be ready to share their stories we had a lot of problems with that as I mentioned people don’t dare to speak about their experience and after 3 months of work we finally recorded those interviews and we started to identify those Russian militaries who could commit those crimes we went to The Villages that were under occupation during the march 2022 we spoke with the Villagers who stayed there during the occupation we found some documents from our militaries and we also worked under Legend to find one of militaries who occupied her own region and who raped the women who was in that moment 16 years old and she was pregnant on that moment I think that’s it and also we had a lot of of the r conversations with our policemen with the prosecutors who are working with the cases of sh violence during the war and now as I know our policemen they work with that information that we already passed them I mean information about those Russian militaries who committed sexual violence our first story I in first because this story is first in our documentary is from cave region from the village havon it was under occupation uh during March 2022 and the family of our hero uh Daria stayed there Daria decided to move there from Kev to be with her family during the hard times when The fullscale Invasion started and family of Daria stayed all together in one house and one day a Russian military came there his name was nadid he told Daria and members of her family his name he told that he was a commander and firstly he checked their phones also they were interrogated but after that military NB da started to come to their house every day and one day he stole a car of Daria’s father on the other day he subjected the family to a mock execution and some days before the Russian militaries lead the village he took Dara and told that he need to interrogate her more because he found some information in her phone he put her to her father’s car and took her to their neighbor’s house and there he raped her there we identified that that military man was from the 37 separate guards motal Brigade from Russia he’s alive now we even tried to contact with him we asked questions about the accusation of rape and moreover he committed some more war crimes when he was in K region during the occupation but he refused to answer those questions now in Ukraine persecutors announced a suspicion In Absentia against the B another story it’s from herone region this event also were during the march 2022 when the small village kka was occupied and our hero her name in film is Marina but we changed it Marina also decided to come come to her family to Village to be all together during the war and one day a military man who was drunk he came to the house where Marina her mother her brothers and sister stayed and he started to ask how old are all the girls who were in that house how old they were after that he asked Marina to go with him to another room and there he raped her Marina knew that he was from the so-called Army of occupied part of donet region in the end of the March they Ukrainian militaries liberated the territories and Marina went to the police and told that Russian military raped her she knew that his name was mola and his call sign was s and that’s all that he remember about him she also told me that she remember that his eyes were blue and we started to work we worked a lot in a village that was under occupation and we found out that man was mola senan he had several criminal convictions he’s Ukrainian national from occupied part of DK region he’s a man member of the 109th Regiment of paramilitary forces from the Russian controlled part of the DK region we passed all that information to investigators and prosecutors and hopefully they will also announce a suspicion and absentee against him Alesia in your view what’s the relationship between the Russian high command and war crimes and crimes like this is this something you think that is known about something that is planned it’d be good to hear a little bit about what you think the relationship is within the Russian armed forces from what you’ve heard Ukrainian persecutors uh recorded 304 facts of sexual violence during the war since the beginning of the fullscale invasion and before the recording of our interviews for our documentary I had a lot of ofd conversation with the Survivor of sexual violence I had a lot of conversations with psychologists with attorneys with human right Defenders they told me stories of other survivors of sexual violence and mostly they were similar and Anna Sensa who is the head of Department that is investigating sexual war crimes she also confirmed me that the persecutors see the system and they have even facts that survivors of sexual violence tried to say the commanders of that militaries who committed those war crimes that they should do something they should stop them and their commanders did nothing under international law military commanders can be prosecuted for war crimes committed by their subordinates and in our documentary we also identified all the commanders of that two militaries in the bv’s Brigade 10 more militaries also committed sexual war crimes uh Ukrainian persecutors announced suspicions In Absentia against them so all in all I can say that it seems like it was system and commanders of Russian militaries allowed their subordinates to commit such war crimes Alesia with all the evidence that you’ve gathered with your work with the prosecutors uh and the lawyers what happens now to be honest we don’t know what is going now on occupied territories a part of Ukraine is still under occupation and it’s becoming more difficult to get any information from the territories it’s dangerous for people to communicate with journalists with human rights Defenders and we don’t know the scale of sexual violence on occupied territories Ukrainian prosecutors they’re investigating sexual war crimes during the war five militaries have been convicted in absentia and 46 soldiers charged of course that scale that we know that’s only the tip of the iceberg and as the experience of other countries shows maybe we would know about the real scale of the sexual war crimes in years when survivors of sexual violence will be ready to share their stories and we’ll be ready to report to police about this type of crimes and in regards to the prosecutions of the people responsible for what do you think of the next steps in that sphere what might happen now it’s difficult to answer this question because Ukrainian investigators policemen prosecutors can announce a suspicion for example Only In Absentia and Russian militaries could be charged also Only In Absentia but for example this militaries could be put on International wanted Leist and maybe other countries could charge them I know that the position of one of attorneys way jordash his team helps Ukrainian prosecutors to investigate sexual war crimes he told me during our interview for the documentary that the main task for Ukraine is to investigate these cases in quality way and as Anna Sensa Ukrainian prosecutor told me also that we should be ready to pass all the evidence to International courts maybe the trials would be there and ala is there anything that you would want an audience outside of Ukraine to hear and understand from your reporting for this documentary I would be happy if you watch our documentary if you share our documentary with your friends with your colleagues with your community and also you should understand that sexual violence during the war is a war crime and it’s not the same as sexual violence during the peace time Russia used sexual violence as a weapon and we should remember about that Alesia Bea thank you so much for your time coming up we hear Dom and francis’s final thoughts let’s go then to our final thoughts dominical would you like to start I note today Russian State Doomer defense committee chairman Andre copolov has reiterated over the weekend that Moscow isn’t planning to demobilize any soldiers before the end of the war or planning to demobilize any soldiers that were called up in that first wave of mobilization in late 2022 so cof reportedly responding to online rumors about imminent demobilization in the Russian forces said the m is not preparing a new general mobilization wave to replace the current number of personnel called up but that means there’s there will be no demobilization until the end of the war he did however say that the mod and the Russian general staff are working to provide leave for Frontline soldiers which is very nice of him but it just shows again the pressure on on Russia you people add it again stated today inside the news room here oh it’s you know Russia’s got millions they just got to they can keep going can’t they well yeah I mean they’ve got a lot of personnel but you know not inexhaustible and they are very very loathed to the point of not doing it yet to roll out mobilization anywhere near the main cities of Moscow St Petersburg they know that there’s a direct route into the political arena there so they’re trying to keep the mobilization well out of the public eyee I’ve been trying to look around but so to to complete this story as a final thought of course I’ve got to give you the view of what’s Happening inside Ukraine and there is no clear picture I think and please if anyone knows the the exact answer please let me know but I think well just as a context obviously mobilization now in Ukraine is men age 25 to 60 they’ve got a register from the age of 18 but they’re only liable to be called up between the age of 25 and 60 the average age of fighter we’re told is 40 that that’s pretty similar for Russia now I think from what I can see anyone uh mobilized under this scheme has to serve for up to 18 months as a private Soldier they can sign a contract as a private Soldier which is three years but I think if you’re mobilized it’s 18 months please correct me anyone out there if that is wrong and to set it in context quoting the guardian they say there are 11 million Ukraine men between the ages of 25 to 60 but only 3.7 million are eligible for this call up the others either fighting disabled out of the country or listed as critical workers so give some idea of the numbers there from the Ukraine side but please do steer me right if I’ve got that wrong that I think that they have to serve for up to 18 months but the news Peg that I was putting this bit on is the news from Russia that they are not demobilizing so anyone caught up in Russia you’re there till the end minor fre minor comrade thank you very much Dom Francis sternley the final words for today well thanks David I also want to reflect on the Ukraine situation at the moment an interesting polling that listeners may have seen going around on social media reported by Ukraine SC plava showing how divided Ukraine apparently is on the question of negotiations at the moment so it reports and I should said there’s a lot of stats that they throw at you in this piece so I’m sort of condensing some of the Topline ones if you’re interested we’ll have a link in the show notes so it reports that 44% of residents in the west of Ukraine believe that the time has come for the start of official peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia while 30 five are convinced that that is not the case in the west yet in the East which is taking the brunt of the fighting only 33% of residents of Ukraine are ready for negotiations and almost the same number 34% are against them meanwhile 60% of Southerners believe that the time has come for official negotiations with Russia which is almost 16% higher than the average for Ukraine now some caution here as our friend fa depat of freelance journalist in Ukraine tweeted it is frustratingly difficult he says to say whether this is actually a shift given the questions and answers put to people it depends heavily on how the question is asked and polling agencies ask in many different ways but it’s clear that the topic of negotiations itself is no longer taboo and I think that’s just it regardless of the geography compared to previous polls there clearly has been some movement on this question Ukraine wide but when one looks in further detail There is almost Universal agreement and this is crucial that territory should not be conceded to Russia so more people may be supporting talks but not the likely price of the talks which just shows how complicated polling can be you’re saying on the one hand that it sounds as if people want to have negotiations because as part of that they’re willing to concede territory but actually when you look in more detail that is not the case so an important caveat to this but nonetheless as Fab says it would appear this is no longer a conversation that is taboo and that is a shift as I say now just to add to this this will be something that we will return to No Doubt there has been some increased speculation that Ukraine politically at the moment President zelinsky’s office is talking about another wave of talk about negotiation further to what happened in Switzerland and indeed Poss possibly inviting Russia to that before the presidential election in November perhaps trying to find some common ground before others try to find common ground for the two parties but I say that is just speculation but I mention it here as speculation that is being talked about and as I say we will return to that an interesting set of stats and as I say for those who are really interested in getting into the granular detail there’ll be a link in the show notes Ukraine the latest is an original podcast from the telegraph to stay on top of all of our Ukraine news analysis and dispatches from the ground subscribe to the telegraph you can get your first 3 months for just 1 at www.telegraph.co.uk Ukraine thelatest we’ll sign up to dispatches our Ukraine newsletter which brings stories from our award-winning foreign correspondents straight to your inbox we also have a Ukraine live blog on our website where you can follow updates as they come in throughout the day including insights from regular contributors to this podcast you can listen listen to this conversation live at 1:00 p.m. London time each weekday on Twitter spaces follow the telegraph on Twitter so you don’t miss it to our listeners on YouTube please note that due to issues beyond our control there is sometimes a delay between broadcast and upload so if you want to hear Ukraine the latest as soon as it is released do refer to the podcast apps if you appreciated this podcast please consider following UK CR the latest on your preferred podcast app and if you have a moment leave a review as it helps others find the show you can also get in touch Direct to ask questions or give comments by emailing Ukraine pod telegraph.co.uk we do read every message and you can contact us directly on Twitter you can find our Twitter Handles in the description for this episode as ever we are especially interested to hear where you listenting from around the world Ukraine the latest was produced by Rachel Porter and the executive producers are David nolles and Louisa Wells

Day 874.

Today, we analyse the heavy fighting around Toretsk and New York as Russian forces push forward, bring you political and diplomatic updates from around the world and we speak to War Crimes Reporter Olesia Bida from the Kyiv Indepednent about her documentary ‘He came Back.’

Just a note from us that this episode contains discussion of extreme sexual violence and cruelty.

Contributors:

David Knowles (Journalist). @djknowles22 on X.

Dom Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

With thanks to Olesia Bida (War Crimes Investigations Unit and Ukrainian journalist @KyivIndependent; author of documentary ‘He Came Back’). @OlesyaBida on X. He Came Back: https://kyivindependent.com/he-came-back/

Articles referenced:

Journalists identify 2 Russian soldiers who committed sexual violence during occupation: https://kyivindependent.com/the-kyiv-independent-identified-russian-soldiers-who-raped-women-during-occupation/

Ukrainian women shared their accounts of rape by Russian forces. We found their assailants: https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-women-share-their-accounts-of-rape-by-russian-forces-as-reporters-investigate-their-assailants/

Trump’s shooting will transform this election – just not in the way you think (Frank Luntz in The Telegraph)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/07/15/trumps-shooting-will-transform-this-election/

44% of Ukrainians believe that the time for negotiations has come, but the majority do not agree to Putin’s conditions (Ukrainian Pravda)

https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2024/07/15/7465706/

Subscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatest

Email: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk