Donald Trump’s Chances of Winning Election Are Declining

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-polling-data-five-thirty-eight-1926226

37 comments

  1. Don’t believe the polls, but don’t believe the doomers either.

  2. This is a disgustingly misleading headline. The poll cited in this article is ranked No. 110 on 538’s site. And beyond that, the poll even says that Trump is still winning in all of the swing states.

  3. In reality all the newest polls on 538 show Trump winning with Trump ahead in the aggregate by 2.1 points.
    This is talking about 538’s model, which factors in fundamentals, like how great the economy is (over half of americans think we are in a recession) and that Biden is an incumbent (incumbencies are losing around the world in reaction to inflation).

  4. In September 2022, Tim Ryan (D) was beating JD Vance (R) by 46-44 in the polling averages for the Ohio Senate race.

    Should Ryan have been considered a favorite in that race? Of course not. Ohio is a red state, so we all intuitively understood at the time that the undecideds were likely to break for Vance.

    The same is true here. America has been a “blue country” (4 popular votes in a row, 7 of the last 8) for longer than Ohio has been a “red state.”

    Trump is consistently polling between 42-46% in national polls. That’s a weak position for him, because the undecideds are likely to break Dem.

  5. According to pollsters, the Republicans should have a supermajority in Congress right now, Hillary Clinton should be President, Obama should have lost his primary and Biden should have lost his. The only thing consistent about polls is how wrong they’ve been for so long.

  6. Trump has always been at his ceiling. The closer we get to the election the more the electorate will be reminded of why they hated Trump. He’s a vile moron and still only pandering to his base. His VP pick is evidence of this.

    If he wins due to low voter turnout because Bidens old and hamberder is expensive then we deserve everything coming at us.

  7. The fact that a convicted criminal is the preferred choice for half of Americans is, frankly, both hilarious and incredibly sad.

  8. I wish this were true more than anything right now…but I’m not convinced of it, not at all.

  9. As long as Convicted Felon Donald Trump’s chances are above zero, we need to fight like they are way higher.

    They won’t hit zero until January 6th. If not the 20th.

  10. when the child rapist leads: “you don´t believe in polls?”

    when the child rapist trails: “you shouldn´t believe in polls!”

  11. He’s leading in literally every single swing state after almost winning 4 years ago while polling 5 points behind at the time but okay. 

    Hope he loses, but this is delusional. 

  12. They had a MN delegate on MPR this morning who was a Nicky Haley supporter who’s now switching to Trump, she claims he’s the law and order president. When asked about his felony conviction she said “it’s not official until he’s sentenced”. She knows damn well that’s a lie but her response wasn’t challenged at all. They bend themselves into pretzels to justify voting for a criminal, it’s disgusting. She was a former MN congresswoman.

  13. Trump only lost the 2020 election by 40,000 votes across three states.

    In other words, Trump was nearly reelected in spite of the nonstop dumpster fire his presidency was with the pandemic being the coup de grace.

    That is one reason why I will take my chances with the Biden presidency.

  14. Just a reminder: regardless of what any poll says, please vote in November.

  15. I’ll believe it when I see it. Vote, donate, volunteer.

  16. I have never once heard Donald Trump try and speak authoritatively on the specifics of any public policy issue in a way that made me think he had any brain at all for policy. That’s not to say he hasn’t authoritatively opined on issues or hasn’t lied about them , but never once have I heard him delve into issue specifics. I have never heard him even do the most basic following: identify a public policy problem, pick one solution, and then give more than one single reason why that solution is a good idea.

    Trump’s brief history as President is littered with countless former staff members, cabinet Secretaries, and executive aides saying he was completely devoid of any public pollicy chops or even a laymen’s understanding of public policy. These were people in high cabinet positions with distinguished careers in the executive branch of the government or military.

    I have heard the man talk at a couple of rallies I went to and wouldn’t endorse him to have a greater understanding of public policy than most members of a local high school or college Republicans organization.

  17. Who cares who the candidate’s are?

    Stop project 2025

  19. I will not be at ease until, as the saying goes, The Fat Lady Sings. But then we need to prepare for January 6 part 2white trash boogooloo

  20. I have a felony for 2 oz of weed from 20 years ago and it’s been hard to get rid of it , and this guy can run for president. Gtfo

  21. How hilarious would it be that, after all this – bidens disastrous debate performance, Trumps brush with death, the RNC hailing him as a literal god emperor – and he still loses. That’d be funny.

  22. The more America hears and sees Trump, the more they remember how much they hated his reign.

  23. Oh fuck off with your constant back and forth, media. Bunch of wankers.

    Everyone go vote.

    That’s the end of it.

  25. Then the Democrats who are all in on removing Biden need to STFU.

  26. Based on… polls?

    The same polls that conservatives purposely lie on to placate liberals and stop them from voting?

    No thanks.

  27. I was a little nervous but picking Vance was a horrible thing. The last thing you want to do is motivate apathetic voters and Vance is so anti-woman, anti-lgbtq, anti-sanity that, come November and more of his insane anti-woman quotes appear, it will motivate the under 40 crowd like never before

  28. Vote like they’re rising every day.

    Complacency will end us.

  31. Yep. If Biden and his people really knew what would be good, they’d use executive order to reenact the Fairness Doctrine.

  32. Probably because “Oh no! I got shot” wasn’t the play everyone expected it to be when the “victim” is a narcissistic man child who thrives on a cult of personality who hogs any and all spotlight he can and has done so for over a decade now nationally.

    Just FUCK OFF.

  33. Voters are tired of Trump. This is our chance to finally stop having to hear about him.

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