Sorry for the long title.
Northern Ireland fascinates me and after the election, I wanted to see how the UNionissts, nationalists, and others have changed since 1964 (the last time the UUP had all the seats)
Now Some stuff may be off by a bit. I added up the unionist parties, the nationalist parties, and the other parties.
Now I am not an expert just someone who likes data so the other category might have the most issues. The main votes in it are the Ulster liberals in the 60s-70s and the alliance+green party. Some other independents who did not have Wikipedia nor a decent share of the vote were lumped in. Several independents with large shares of the vote like the one in North Antrim who got 4% of the vote (and wrote an anti-derry girl letter ) who I added to unionist vote total. I am sorry for any mistakes nonetheless here is the data. The winning party is bolded
Here is the unionist vote over time
Now there are two other metrics 2019-2024 change and change since GFA (2024-2001) which can be seen in the sheet
There have been two increases since both events
Belfast West and mid ulster with large increases in the former of 4% but in general a decrease the largest being -30.6 in down north. On average since the GFA they have lost an average -10.3315%
Now then the nationalists
The nationalists have eaten well as you can see and yet they too have decreased since the GFA -0.3615% on average which is not a lot and as you can tell in a lot of places their decrease is in areas they were not doing so well like Lagan valley and Belfast east
Still general increase with some downturns
Now Other
With an average gain since GFA of 10.39% what a situation. while they have decreased a bit (relative to 2019) they have made some big gains like Lagan Valley and Belfast south and mid down.
Anyhow, I am posting this late at night since I am unable to sleep and I do confess this is probably not the best (its my first time, and I'm not trained in this) but I hope that it is helpful or just interesting.
I plan to do the same for the assembly
And while I am untrained to give analysis (I don't know if what I am seeing is lower unionist turnout, dying out of unionist voters, or just swing votes) I can make this prediction
In 2050 North Antrim and North Down will be nationalist strongholds and Belfast West and mid Ulster will be the core of the unionists based on current predictions. (i joke)
Please give me any feedback or comment!
by ewatta200
2 comments
The “Other” is a pretty broad church.