U.S. Consumer Loans Delinquency Rates (1992-2024) [oc]

https://i.redd.it/wipncibtvped1.png

Posted by forensiceconomics

9 comments

  1. This visualization was created using GGplot2. The grey-shaded areas represent periods of economic recession, providing context to the spikes in delinquency rates. The delinquency rates of U.S. consumer loans, focusing specifically on credit card loans versus other consumer loans spanning from 1992 to the first quarter of 2024. Data sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series: [Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS) and [Delinquency Rate on Other Consumer Loans](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DROCLACBS).

    **Peak Delinquency in Q2 2009**: The delinquency rate on credit card loans soared to 6.8%, coinciding with the economic downturn of the Great Recession. During the same period, other consumer loans experienced a peak delinquency rate of 3.7%. **Current Trends (Q1 2024)**: As of the first quarter of 2024, the delinquency rates have shown a significant reduction compared to the peak values, with credit card loans at 3.2% and other consumer loans at 2.2%.

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  3. Delinquency went sharply down during 2020 pandemic despite the unemployment. Was that stimulus? People stopped spending?

  4. Isn’t this what Michael Burry says in the ‘Big Short’ movie as always being a clear indicator of an upcoming recession?
    Maybe not consumer loans, but mortgage loans, but the same trend no?

  5. Honestly this time it’s the amounts that are terrifying.

  6. If the fed is going to keep rates above zero, then the delinquency rate has to return to pre-2008 levels also. What’s interesting is that banks used the zero rate to increase the average APR margin, and increase their profits: [https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/blog/credit-card-interest-rate-margins-at-all-time-high/](https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/blog/credit-card-interest-rate-margins-at-all-time-high/)

    They haven’t reduced that at all.. so it’s pushing the average APR higher than ever: [https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/study/average-credit-card-interest-rate-in-america/](https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/study/average-credit-card-interest-rate-in-america/)

    So if non-zero fed rates are the new normal, the banks are either going to have to reduce their APR margin back to pre-2008 levels, or that delinquency rate is going to go much higher than pre-2008 levels.

  8. 🔥🔥🔥Everything is fine🔥🔥🔥

    🔥🔥🔥This is fine 🔥🔥🔥

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