Russia’s grand strategy isn’t playing out

8 comments

1. RUSSIAN GRAND STRATEGY ISN’T PLAYING OUT

   In Moscow there was deep disappointment when the French right wing failed to win the latest elections. So much time and effort – and money – had gone into making it happen it was seen as an abject failure.
   Social media propaganda and years of direct and indirect financing and message manipulation looked like they might pay off.
   It was a major disappointment after the failed right wing grab for the EU presidency and parliament, where those elections failed to gain the expected traction.
   Now Moscow is horrified at the thought of Kamala Harris winning the presidency. They love Trump because he’s almost a Russian stooge. His party is so pro-Russian it’s verging on treasonous. With him they expect to win the war and get almost everything they want.
   Biden they could cope with because he was old school Cold War and respected (for the most part) Russian red lines and its status as a nuclear power. Harris has none of that background. In fact Moscow is struggling to work out what her policy will be. They have no idea. They don’t know how to tackle it, they don’t know how to propagandise against her, they don’t know who her choices for National Security and defence will even be. The current cabinet is unlikely to stay in place post election – many won’t want to after four years at the helm, even if asked.
   Having failed to disrupt Europe as much as they had wanted to, facing for the first time the possibility that Trump could actually lose the election, fills Moscow with dread.
   Much of their strategy has been based on gaining ground with which to negotiate during this summer, have Trump win in November and negotiate an end to the war on terms entirely favourable to Russia in the first quarter of 2025.
   If Harris wins that entire scenario falls apart and they have no idea what will replace it.
   It leaves them exposed and committed to a failed geopolitical strategy and no way out that looks even slightly attractive. Indeed a Harris win would probably mean vastly more American aid and the potential for defeat in the field.
   They also fear the so called ‘Liberal dictatorship’ – a Russian connivance that they see as un-Christian, gay supporting, freedom loving anti-authoritarian, set of policies bent on climate and environmental protection and energy independence.
   All things Russia hates because it uses strict religion to enforce its authoritarian regime and depends on fossil fuels for its existence and the suppression of rights and protections to survive.
   It would face a new administration as starkly opposite to its own views as could be managed. And one that doesn’t respect Russian power or its self important image. It’s an administration that will look not on Russia as a scary country with nuclear weapons, but more in a way of, ‘you’ve got nukes, we’ve got nukes. So what?’ Because the fact is they are useless unless used and use means everyone loses.
   Take nuclear weapons out of the equation and Russia hasn’t got as much to frighten us with as we might think. They are petrified someone will realise that and act accordingly.
   Moscow’s grand strategy still has a way to go. November 4 will determine a great deal. It’s Putin’s last hope of getting out of this war in Ukraine before the tide turns. If Trump wins Putin wins. If Harris wins Putins days are numbered. And Moscow knows it.

2. Hence I sent money to the Kamala Harris campaign. JD Vance has said he doesn’t care what happens in Ukraine and is vehemently opposed to the USA helping Ukraine. DJT did his best to end aid to Ukraine and wants to pull the USA out of NATO.

3. When did it ever play out? That’s why they are so pissy about ‘ze West’.

4. That was a great post op.

5. > when did the [meat grinder philosophy] ever pay out [for Russia]?

   WW1 = failed, led to Russian civil war & revolution.

   WW2 = success, with U.S. material aid, defeated Nazi Germany’s eastern army.
   Russian army suffered huge casualties in taking Berlin, but did so for control and propaganda reasons.
   Actually, huge casualties in most battles.

   Under Yalta treaty, Russia took possession of Eastern Europe.
   Baltic countries, Poland, East Germany, Hungary, Czechoslovakia.
   U.S. needed massive Russian army to counter fanatical Nazi army, and believed they would need massive Russian army to help invade fanatical Japan.

   WW2 = Russia’s Great Patriotic War.

6. Brexit isn’t panning out the way they would have liked either. It was supposed to break the EU and cut the UK adrift and although it’s a complete mess, support for Ukraine is the one thing they agree on.

7. I mean I think we knew that in March 2022.

8. * The same author as the original post link, but from his Telegram channel, “Military and Strategic”

   WE HAVE TO TALK US ELECTION

   The significance of this election is hugely important.
   It matters to NATO and it matters to Ukraine especially. You all know that and are aware of it. More than that of course it matters to America. If Trump and his Project 2025 crew win the election, it will result in sweeping, almost irreversible and dangerous changes to American society and government, the international order and American influence in the world permanently.
   America is generally a force for good but it’s made some dire mistakes. Iraq was one in 2003 and the permanent occupation of Afghanistan until 2021 were dreadful mistakes that backfired spectacularly. I personally refused to take part in the 2003 operation. I warned against it, I pointed out why it would of course be a victory at first but with no plan for what came after it was bound to be a disaster with no foreseeable positive outcomes. Afghanistan I argued, should have been occupied and allied forces out of it within six months. Nobody ever conquered or calmed that country and nobody ever would.
   Those wars and their failures have shaped America. Biden ended the Afghan conflict the only way it could be done. It was a hard pill to swallow but it had to be done. It had its consequences- possibly it looked like weakness to Russia and China, but neither of them in my opinion saw it that way. They saw strength in accepting that nobody wins in Afghanistan and nobody ever will. Russia learnt that in the 1980’s. China has left it well alone.
   The lunatic fringe verging on a cult that the Republican Party has become in the US, took that direction because the party of George Bush (2) made so many mistakes, leading to the disaster of the 2008 financial crash and two failing costly wars. While in opposition they went increasingly to the right with the Tea Party and the obsession of ousting the first black president, or at least humbling his abilities to change anything. They wrapped the budgets up in fiscal rules and regulations, voted down any legislation that would make anything happen for the good of the country and fought harder still to keep right.
   Trump came along and gave them way more than they ever asked for and on much of it he delivered. What he plans this time will eviscerate American power abroad while creating an environmental and human catastrophe at home. America would head into darkness. And nobody outside of it can be pleased that that might happen.
   The constitutional republic will fail to hold Trump in check and Republicans if they win the senate and house, will let him do whatever he likes. The judiciary is already packed with Trump stooges willing to do his biding – as we have seen in Florida with Judge Canon whose bias is shocking in its temerity.
   I assure you, if Trump wins it’s not even so much Trump we need to fear – it’s the unqualified extremists and fanatics he will allow into the lower levels of government – thousands of appointed posts will be used to destroy the fabric of the state and the federal government’s power and protection of the people, will be used against the people who don’t support the regime. Read Project 2025 and as Kamala Harris has already said, ‘can you believe they put that in writing?’
   Like it or not this is the type of thing that will affect us all, we are culturally, financially and militarily tied up with the United States and if it goes off into the isolation chamber we’re going to be cut off and wondering what the hell to do as the collective west. It’s Russia’s dream come true – divide America from Europe is its goal since 1945.
   There are none of the restraining influences on Trump there were the first time. The adults have left the room and anyone with integrity wants nothing to do with him. The fact is he doesn’t want them either. Only loyalty and obedience matter.
   Until this week Trump would likely have won. We stand at a point where Biden has withdrawn – for which I thank him and so should we all. Kamala Harris is everything Trump is not. Is she perfect, no.