**The great return of Poles from emigration. There are fewer of us abroad than in 2007.**
There has not been such a large drop in the number of Poles abroad since joining the EU. The mass return to the homeland is mainly the result of Brexit.
The Central Statistical Office published estimates of the scale of emigration from Poland in 2020. Statisticians say that 2 million 239 thousand people stayed abroad last year. Poles. This is not only the best result in years, but most of all the strongest annual decline so far recorded by the Central Statistical Office.
The largest exodus of Poles took place after joining the EU. 1.3 million people left the country in three years. Emigration reached its peak in 2007, after which the number of Poles began to gradually decline. Unfortunately, the poor economic situation resulted in a renewed growth in 2010-17. In 2017, the number of emigrants reached a record 2.54 million people. Fortunately, we have been recording a systematic decline since then. In 2020, there were only 2.24 million people abroad. It is about 300 thousand. less than in 2017 and by as much as 176 thousand. than in 2019.
(Pic) The scale of emigration from Poland in 2004-2020
**Rising wages and Brexit helped**
Two factors undoubtedly had the most important influence on the current situation. The first is the very good situation in the Polish economy. Unemployment is no longer among the highest in Europe, and wages are increasingly close to Western levels.
Another important, and perhaps the most important factor, is the UK’s exit from the EU. It is the outflow of emigrants from the United Kingdom that is the main culprit behind such a massive return of Poles. In 2017, there were 793 thousand people in the UK. Poles. In 2020, it was already 514 thousand. This means a decrease by 279 thousand. within 3 years. Considering that at that time the number of all Poles abroad decreased by 300,000, it is hard not to notice that Great Britain is the main destination from which our compatriots return.
Taking into account the data from 2020, we can see a decrease in the number of emigrants in the United Kingdom, Greece, Sweden, Italy and Belgium. On the other hand, the number of Poles living in Austria, Ireland, Germany, Norway and the Netherlands increased.
(Pic) Change in the scale of migration from Poland 2019-20
**The return of Poles is not enough**
Although these data are certainly pleasing, it should be emphasized that our economy also needs mass labor immigration. Low fertility results in shortages in the labor market. Without immigrants from Belarus or Ukraine, our economy would develop much slower.
A group of researchers consisting of Paweł Strzelecki, Jakub Growiec and Robert Wyszyński decided to check how the unprecedented influx of Ukrainian immigrants to Poland contributed to the economic growth of our country. Their analysis shows that the contribution of employees from Ukraine to the growth of Polish GDP amounted to approximately 0.5 percentage points. annually. We owe 13% of Poland’s GDP growth in 2013-2018 to migrants on the eastern border.
A positive aspect of immigrants from beyond the eastern border is the cultural proximity and a very high fertility rate. Ukrainians and Belarusians are among the most hard-working immigrant groups in the entire EU.
(Pic) Main groups of immigrants in the EU
**Last year, Poland was the EU leader in immigration.**
– In 2020, Poland was responsible for 1/4 of all first residence permits issued to citizens of non-EU countries. 502 thou. permits (-20% y / y) last year our country issued for people coming for work, of which 489 thousand. concerned the citizens of Ukraine – PIE economist Andrzej Kubisiak informed on his Twitter.
(Pic) Number of first residence permits in EU countries
However, it is worth remembering that already now many Ukrainians intend to leave Poland and go, among others to Germany, where wages are much higher. Many people also complain about the law that hinders immigration to Poland. Without changes to maximize immigration to Poland, the number of new employees from abroad may continue to decline.
According to the forecasts of the European Commission, without immigration, the potential growth of Poland’s GDP may slow down to such an extent that it will never catch up with Germany. In 2050 it is to amount to 1.3%, which is slower than in our western neighbor (1.4%). This will ensure that our GDP per capita level will never exceed 80% of Germany’s GDP per capita. In the light of this analysis, it seems necessary to maintain high immigration.
[deleted]
Why did mods remove this post? There’s the translation of this article in English. For once that we get some local news and we don’t have garbage tabloid articles such as the telegraph…
3 comments
**Google Translation:**
​
**The great return of Poles from emigration. There are fewer of us abroad than in 2007.**
There has not been such a large drop in the number of Poles abroad since joining the EU. The mass return to the homeland is mainly the result of Brexit.
The Central Statistical Office published estimates of the scale of emigration from Poland in 2020. Statisticians say that 2 million 239 thousand people stayed abroad last year. Poles. This is not only the best result in years, but most of all the strongest annual decline so far recorded by the Central Statistical Office.
The largest exodus of Poles took place after joining the EU. 1.3 million people left the country in three years. Emigration reached its peak in 2007, after which the number of Poles began to gradually decline. Unfortunately, the poor economic situation resulted in a renewed growth in 2010-17. In 2017, the number of emigrants reached a record 2.54 million people. Fortunately, we have been recording a systematic decline since then. In 2020, there were only 2.24 million people abroad. It is about 300 thousand. less than in 2017 and by as much as 176 thousand. than in 2019.
(Pic) The scale of emigration from Poland in 2004-2020
**Rising wages and Brexit helped**
Two factors undoubtedly had the most important influence on the current situation. The first is the very good situation in the Polish economy. Unemployment is no longer among the highest in Europe, and wages are increasingly close to Western levels.
Another important, and perhaps the most important factor, is the UK’s exit from the EU. It is the outflow of emigrants from the United Kingdom that is the main culprit behind such a massive return of Poles. In 2017, there were 793 thousand people in the UK. Poles. In 2020, it was already 514 thousand. This means a decrease by 279 thousand. within 3 years. Considering that at that time the number of all Poles abroad decreased by 300,000, it is hard not to notice that Great Britain is the main destination from which our compatriots return.
Taking into account the data from 2020, we can see a decrease in the number of emigrants in the United Kingdom, Greece, Sweden, Italy and Belgium. On the other hand, the number of Poles living in Austria, Ireland, Germany, Norway and the Netherlands increased.
(Pic) Change in the scale of migration from Poland 2019-20
**The return of Poles is not enough**
Although these data are certainly pleasing, it should be emphasized that our economy also needs mass labor immigration. Low fertility results in shortages in the labor market. Without immigrants from Belarus or Ukraine, our economy would develop much slower.
A group of researchers consisting of Paweł Strzelecki, Jakub Growiec and Robert Wyszyński decided to check how the unprecedented influx of Ukrainian immigrants to Poland contributed to the economic growth of our country. Their analysis shows that the contribution of employees from Ukraine to the growth of Polish GDP amounted to approximately 0.5 percentage points. annually. We owe 13% of Poland’s GDP growth in 2013-2018 to migrants on the eastern border.
A positive aspect of immigrants from beyond the eastern border is the cultural proximity and a very high fertility rate. Ukrainians and Belarusians are among the most hard-working immigrant groups in the entire EU.
(Pic) Main groups of immigrants in the EU
**Last year, Poland was the EU leader in immigration.**
– In 2020, Poland was responsible for 1/4 of all first residence permits issued to citizens of non-EU countries. 502 thou. permits (-20% y / y) last year our country issued for people coming for work, of which 489 thousand. concerned the citizens of Ukraine – PIE economist Andrzej Kubisiak informed on his Twitter.
(Pic) Number of first residence permits in EU countries
However, it is worth remembering that already now many Ukrainians intend to leave Poland and go, among others to Germany, where wages are much higher. Many people also complain about the law that hinders immigration to Poland. Without changes to maximize immigration to Poland, the number of new employees from abroad may continue to decline.
According to the forecasts of the European Commission, without immigration, the potential growth of Poland’s GDP may slow down to such an extent that it will never catch up with Germany. In 2050 it is to amount to 1.3%, which is slower than in our western neighbor (1.4%). This will ensure that our GDP per capita level will never exceed 80% of Germany’s GDP per capita. In the light of this analysis, it seems necessary to maintain high immigration.
[deleted]
Why did mods remove this post? There’s the translation of this article in English. For once that we get some local news and we don’t have garbage tabloid articles such as the telegraph…