When President Biden on 19 January told astonished reporters that he ‘expects’ Russia to invade Ukraine, the reaction in the Polish media and among the political class was quick — condemnation and deep disappointment, both on the right and the left. ‘Biden shows weakness, which is an invitation to invasion’ — wrote Sławomir Sierakowski, an influential columnist, who is close to the politicians of Civic Platform, the largest opposition party. The administration tried to backpedal desperately, but a bad impression remained.
The obvious American helplessness seemed to confirm the worst stereotypes about the Biden administration — that it is weak on Russia, weak on European security, spineless and undecided, capable of issuing only empty threats. The Polish government also tried to test Biden’s mettle — Mark Brzezinski, the new US ambassador to Warsaw, had to wait almost half a year — until December 2021 — before he was formally accepted by the Law and Justice government.
The semi-official reason for this offensive move was almost comical — the ruling party politicians leaked to the media that they suspect Brzezinski of having Polish citizenship because his father was a famous Polish émigré to the US. The ambassador, who is very progressive — for Polish standards — wrote a number of tweets indirectly critical of the Polish government. No one can expect a cordial relationship from such a welcome.
PiS Stuck In The Past
It is also no secret that the Polish ruling party really misses the Trump administration. The hot romance between Trump and the Polish Law and Justice government was a very public affair. His ringing endorsement of conservative values aligned nicely with the xenophobic rhetoric of the PiS government. From the Polish right’s perspective, the West is weak, infected by the radical left, morally degenerate and destined to be taken over by radical Islamism, and also unable (or unwilling) to stop Russian expansion in Central Europe.
So they welcomed Trump as one of their own. It has also helped that he avoided the touchy subject of democracy and human rights, which were under assault. In his famous speech in Warsaw in July 2017, Trump used the word ‘civilization’ 10 times and ‘democracy’ once. He never mentioned human rights. In contrast, the Biden administration — including the president himself — spoke about respect for human rights in Poland many times.
TVN Saved by the US
A key problem in Polish–American relations was the conflict over TVN, the largest private Polish TV network, which is independent of the government and is also often accused by the ruling party politicians of being biased against them. The Law and Justice government tried to apply — so far unsuccessfully — different forms of pressure (including a threat of prosecution for supposed tax evasion) against the American owners of the network which currently is a part of Discovery. Trump’s ambassador in Warsaw, Georgette Mossbacher, had to defend TVN against relentless attacks of government-owned Polish news media.
The conflict over TVN reached its apex under the Biden administration. The Law and Justice government amended the law, which states that no media company from outside the European Economic Area can have a majority stake in a Polish news media organisation. While TVN was formally owned by a company registered in the Netherlands, the real owners were American.
There was a real possibility that Discovery would be forced to sell their stake in TVN to someone else — perhaps a government-owned company — in six months after the law was passed by the Parliament. American diplomacy intervened in full force, the Senate expressed concern, and charge d’affaires Bix Aliu declared ‘extreme disappointment’ with the law.
It finally passed the parliament in December 2021 and was vetoed by President Duda — against, as it seems, the wishes of his boss, Jarosław Kaczyński, leader of the Law and Justice party. The rumour was that US diplomats leaned on Duda hard — telling him bluntly that Polish strategic cooperation with the US is in danger if he does not block the expropriation of the American company. They also supposedly told him that if the law passes, he may forget about his international career after his second (and last) term expires in 2025.
Poland’s Underlying Issues
The Law and Justice party would probably not try to enact ‘TVN law’ if it had a better opinion about the Biden administration. President Duda was one of the last heads of state to congratulate Biden. He did this six weeks after the vote, on December 15th, 2020 — when it was clear that the Electoral College was not going to overturn the results.
The language that pro-government media uses about the United States also changed drastically. Suddenly they started to talk about rising crime, poverty and other social ills in America, which actually reminded many older viewers of the language of communist propaganda from the 1980s.
They also portrayed the Biden administration’s agenda as ‘extremely leftist,’ prone to ideological fantasies created by the ‘Black Lives Matter’ movement, but also weak and incompetent in foreign affairs, especially in the coverage of the disastrous US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Watching the government TV coverage of American issues, it would be hard to believe they are ‘Poland’s most important ally.’
Security Knocks Back Some Sense into Poland
This cool and rocky relationship warmed somewhat in January when Vladimir Putin started to gather troops at Ukrainian borders. The mood in Warsaw’s ruling circles was dire and Polish diplomacy started to lobby the Americans desperately for intervention and security guarantees — for Poland, not for Ukraine.
The Biden administration delivered — Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reassured in late January that Ukrainian sovereignty is ‘sacrosanct’ for the United States, and Americans promised to send three thousand more troops to eastern Europe. Whatever happens in Ukraine, new American troops will be more than welcome in Poland. In the past, when Russians conquered Ukraine, they always turned their attention to Polish affairs. No one in Warsaw wants this.
What next? A lot will depend on the security situation behind Poland’s eastern borders. The Polish government may despise the Biden administration — and is unlikely to stop doing so. But it knows that at the end of the day national security depends on NATO — and NATO is not going to lift a finger in Poland’s defence without political backing in the US.
One can expect a toning down of anti-American rhetoric in the media. TVN will be safe — at least for a while. Law and Justice will have to live with Biden, always betting on a huge Republican win in midterms in 2022 and a triumphant Trump return in 2024.
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Relations with the US are low in Warsaw.
When President Biden on 19 January told astonished reporters that he ‘expects’ Russia to invade Ukraine, the reaction in the Polish media and among the political class was quick — condemnation and deep disappointment, both on the right and the left. ‘Biden shows weakness, which is an invitation to invasion’ — wrote Sławomir Sierakowski, an influential columnist, who is close to the politicians of Civic Platform, the largest opposition party. The administration tried to backpedal desperately, but a bad impression remained.
The obvious American helplessness seemed to confirm the worst stereotypes about the Biden administration — that it is weak on Russia, weak on European security, spineless and undecided, capable of issuing only empty threats. The Polish government also tried to test Biden’s mettle — Mark Brzezinski, the new US ambassador to Warsaw, had to wait almost half a year — until December 2021 — before he was formally accepted by the Law and Justice government.
The semi-official reason for this offensive move was almost comical — the ruling party politicians leaked to the media that they suspect Brzezinski of having Polish citizenship because his father was a famous Polish émigré to the US. The ambassador, who is very progressive — for Polish standards — wrote a number of tweets indirectly critical of the Polish government. No one can expect a cordial relationship from such a welcome.
PiS Stuck In The Past
It is also no secret that the Polish ruling party really misses the Trump administration. The hot romance between Trump and the Polish Law and Justice government was a very public affair. His ringing endorsement of conservative values aligned nicely with the xenophobic rhetoric of the PiS government. From the Polish right’s perspective, the West is weak, infected by the radical left, morally degenerate and destined to be taken over by radical Islamism, and also unable (or unwilling) to stop Russian expansion in Central Europe.
So they welcomed Trump as one of their own. It has also helped that he avoided the touchy subject of democracy and human rights, which were under assault. In his famous speech in Warsaw in July 2017, Trump used the word ‘civilization’ 10 times and ‘democracy’ once. He never mentioned human rights. In contrast, the Biden administration — including the president himself — spoke about respect for human rights in Poland many times.
TVN Saved by the US
A key problem in Polish–American relations was the conflict over TVN, the largest private Polish TV network, which is independent of the government and is also often accused by the ruling party politicians of being biased against them. The Law and Justice government tried to apply — so far unsuccessfully — different forms of pressure (including a threat of prosecution for supposed tax evasion) against the American owners of the network which currently is a part of Discovery. Trump’s ambassador in Warsaw, Georgette Mossbacher, had to defend TVN against relentless attacks of government-owned Polish news media.
The conflict over TVN reached its apex under the Biden administration. The Law and Justice government amended the law, which states that no media company from outside the European Economic Area can have a majority stake in a Polish news media organisation. While TVN was formally owned by a company registered in the Netherlands, the real owners were American.
There was a real possibility that Discovery would be forced to sell their stake in TVN to someone else — perhaps a government-owned company — in six months after the law was passed by the Parliament. American diplomacy intervened in full force, the Senate expressed concern, and charge d’affaires Bix Aliu declared ‘extreme disappointment’ with the law.
It finally passed the parliament in December 2021 and was vetoed by President Duda — against, as it seems, the wishes of his boss, Jarosław Kaczyński, leader of the Law and Justice party. The rumour was that US diplomats leaned on Duda hard — telling him bluntly that Polish strategic cooperation with the US is in danger if he does not block the expropriation of the American company. They also supposedly told him that if the law passes, he may forget about his international career after his second (and last) term expires in 2025.
Poland’s Underlying Issues
The Law and Justice party would probably not try to enact ‘TVN law’ if it had a better opinion about the Biden administration. President Duda was one of the last heads of state to congratulate Biden. He did this six weeks after the vote, on December 15th, 2020 — when it was clear that the Electoral College was not going to overturn the results.
The language that pro-government media uses about the United States also changed drastically. Suddenly they started to talk about rising crime, poverty and other social ills in America, which actually reminded many older viewers of the language of communist propaganda from the 1980s.
They also portrayed the Biden administration’s agenda as ‘extremely leftist,’ prone to ideological fantasies created by the ‘Black Lives Matter’ movement, but also weak and incompetent in foreign affairs, especially in the coverage of the disastrous US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Watching the government TV coverage of American issues, it would be hard to believe they are ‘Poland’s most important ally.’
Security Knocks Back Some Sense into Poland
This cool and rocky relationship warmed somewhat in January when Vladimir Putin started to gather troops at Ukrainian borders. The mood in Warsaw’s ruling circles was dire and Polish diplomacy started to lobby the Americans desperately for intervention and security guarantees — for Poland, not for Ukraine.
The Biden administration delivered — Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reassured in late January that Ukrainian sovereignty is ‘sacrosanct’ for the United States, and Americans promised to send three thousand more troops to eastern Europe. Whatever happens in Ukraine, new American troops will be more than welcome in Poland. In the past, when Russians conquered Ukraine, they always turned their attention to Polish affairs. No one in Warsaw wants this.
What next? A lot will depend on the security situation behind Poland’s eastern borders. The Polish government may despise the Biden administration — and is unlikely to stop doing so. But it knows that at the end of the day national security depends on NATO — and NATO is not going to lift a finger in Poland’s defence without political backing in the US.
One can expect a toning down of anti-American rhetoric in the media. TVN will be safe — at least for a while. Law and Justice will have to live with Biden, always betting on a huge Republican win in midterms in 2022 and a triumphant Trump return in 2024.