Nate Silver Says Harris Now Has Slight Advantage Over Trump

https://www.thedailybeast.com/nate-silver-says-election-is-now-a-toss-up-as-harris-takes-polling-lead

34 comments

  3. He’s still wrong.

    Her advantage is quite significant since the remaining undecideds are likely to lean Dem.

  5. Also good news is that 538 says Harris is up in Pennsylvania.

  6. The VP announcement and convention will give Harris another 2-3% shift in the averages, is my prediction.

  8. My guess is Harris is going to win with 12 million more popular votes and the map is going to be so blue that’s it’s hard to call it rigged. Over the last 4 years more elderly people have died especially due to Covid. They tend to lean more red. More young people can vote and they tend to lean blue. I think a lot of celebrity endorsements are coming in the next few months which will raise young voter turnout like you have never seen before.

  9. And I apply as much weight to this as I did when he said Trump had a slight advantage over Biden. Don’t care about polls. VOTE!

    Do NOT get complacent or disinterested about voting based on pollster punditry. Stick it through to November and cast a filled out ballot.

  11. My 87 year old grandfather here in GA voted for Trump in 2016. He is early voting for Harris

  12. if truly with all that has transpired over the last few months and years all we end up with is a ‘slight advantage’ over Trump then wow take a good long hard look in the mirror America wtaf

  13. Yeah but fuck Nate Silver. Hes not as accurate as we like to think he is.

  14. When my Grandma, a poor old woman lost to Fox News, said Harris seems like a “good, genuine woman” I let out a massive sigh of relief.

  15. Trump hit his ceiling, Harris hit her floor.

    This is the result.

    We don’t know what Harris has for a ceiling, but we do know this isn’t it.

  16. I am daily finding it hard to believe that the race is so close. This is so distressing 😞vote blue

  19. While I’m very excited for this news, I still find it very depressing that her advantage is only “SLIGHTLY” above Trumps. Dafuq is wrong with these people they’re polling?

  21. Let’s keep the momentum going. The DC trial is set to start up again in less than two weeks. This should help.

  22. Harris, the friendly person who laughs, communicates well, and is looking to bring our country together is the easy choice when the other person is an always grumpy and divisive felon who has also been penalized civilly for sexual assault. Trump is the worst thing that has happened to America in my lifetime.

  24. I kinda feel bad for Biden. He drops out of the race and excitement within the party soars.

    But it shows how eager people are for a change (and that Biden should have committed to a single term presidency to start with).

  25. Is everyone able to read this because they are subscribed to the daily beast?

  26. I know this is good but it still blows my mind that’s it’s this close.

  27. We’re just getting warmed up. No DNC. The celebs haven’t started making their big push. Taylor and Beyoncé haven’t gotten warmed up. No debate yet (or Trump not debating which would also hurt him). Kamala is going to destroy Trump. Also, make sure to vote.

  28. Remember, Nate Silver / 538 was the ONLY site that predicted Trump had a very real shot of winning against Hillary Clinton. He predicted Trump had a 28.6% chance of winning, while every other major network had Trump at 1%.

  30. Remember this is a SLIGHT advantage. Don’t treat this like this a done deal.

  32. Unrelated, but I stopped following Silver after 22 midterms… he seemed weird.

  33. > Silver has a mixed record with calling elections. FiveThirtyEight gave Biden an 89% chance at defeating Trump in the 2020 presidential election—a bold prediction that eventually proved accurate. However, he also gave Hilary Clinton a 71% chance of winning on the eve of the 2016 general election.

    What if I told you that sometimes the one with the 29% chance wins?

  34. I honestly don’t GAF any what Silver has to say. Yet I am really looking forward to what voters say in … Roevember

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