“The Ukrainians are keeping pretty quiet about why and what is exactly happening. What we do know is that Bradley’s have been used, along with other western supplied vehicles.
There is very clear alarm about what is happening in Russian channels as it took them by surprise.
Another interesting aspect of this attack has been the willingness of Russian troops there to surrender to the Ukrainians. Video of Russians walking towards Ukrainians with hands in the air is very clear.
Why did they choose capture over simply running the other away into Russia?
A pair of tanks being driven to the village of Suzcha to help the Russians were blown up before they could even unload from their transports.
It’s also become clear that Russian units such as 75079 and its barracks were hit and destroyed as part of the preliminary operation.
There is also compelling evidence that at least two Russian Ka-52 attack helicopters were shot down – a rare sight these days as most were destroyed.
The purpose of the operation seems to more of a raid and disruption operation to distract the Russians and remind them that while they keep trying to frighten Ukraine with special forces raids and threats to expand the war, two can play at that game.
I don’t personally see any real point to these raids unless they have a very specific purpose in mind such as the capture of some key piece of equipment. To me these are troops and forces that could have been better employed elsewhere.
Even if it forces Russia to divert some effort it’s hardly going to change the situation much elsewhere on the front.
Still there we are, it’s happening and we’ll see how it pans out.”
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!
The most plausible cause that I’ve read about is Sudzha gas measuring station, to stop them selling gas over that pipe, and control over railroad that supplied enemy in Kharkiv. But it may as well be because they had no defences in that region (because kadyrovites are pathetic tiktok warriors)
The question boils down to. What are the Ukrainian losses? Are they minimal? We know Russia lost at least 2 helicopters and 2 tanks and captured a bunch of troops they don’t have to fight now. Next, Russia will have to bomb and use up material on their soil and not Ukraine. Every bomb used in Russia is 1 less bomb used to destroy a Ukrainian factory, business, home, power station or other infrastructure. In addition to that they are destroying their own businesses, homes, infrastructure, along with diverting resources to a situation on their territory instead of Ukraine. Can Ukraine take over a base? Can they now hit some transportation infrastructure used to move military goods?
So long as the losses are way less for Ukraine than Russia this is a great move.
SAMbush bait, perhaps?
Curious to see how this develops.
Cannot use long range missiles but can use Bradley’s very interesting development.
Remember Pigozin amost made it to Moscow.
There wasn’t a lot Russia was able to do to stop him except lie.
Perhaps Ukraine realizes this and maybe Russia has no realistic defenses.
Regardless, I hope they achieve their objectives.
Well, fighting Russians head on might be risky and hard; but this allows them to maneuver and I doubt Russian territory is heavily mined and obviously not well defended. They might be able to catch Russians trying to reposition/resupply troops or attack/cut off supply lines directly behind the Russian frontline troops. Russian Air Force might become vulnerable trying to attack the incursion forces while Ukraine’s anti air is pre positioned on the other side of the border. And we all saw how poor Russian command and control is, their moving troops might be sitting ducks.
A lot of people don’t understand the importance of raids. The purpose is to demonstrate that you hold areas at risk. If russia is forced to allocate resources to the defense of regions that aren’t on their advance axis then it’ll degrade their ability to push elsewhere.
This is especially true if it forces russia to distribute artillery ammo that otherwise would be used in the areas of advance. Since russia is predominately a fired based military, a loss of concentration of fires will substantially degrade their ability to achieve their military goals. This is also true of air assets. If they commit and risk air assets to prevent Ukrainian pushes in these areas, it’ll give Ukraine the ability to attrit those high value assets. Reference the reported downing of 2x Ka-52s. Ideally Ukraine hits and holds only as long as it takes to elicit a shift in forces to that region then withdraw with minimal casualties. Rinse and repeat in other areas to continue their operation of corroding russia’s ability to mass resources.
We haven’t seen stuff like this recently because Ukraine has been working hard at building their own defensive line and reconstitute/reorganize their forces. We’ll see how Ukraine wants to play it though.
What Ahmat Tea Doing?
The thing that comes to mind for me is the region probably isn’t miles and miles of minefields. In terms of an offensive, this will be the softest target while causing drama in Russia at large
10 comments
“The Ukrainians are keeping pretty quiet about why and what is exactly happening. What we do know is that Bradley’s have been used, along with other western supplied vehicles.
There is very clear alarm about what is happening in Russian channels as it took them by surprise.
Another interesting aspect of this attack has been the willingness of Russian troops there to surrender to the Ukrainians. Video of Russians walking towards Ukrainians with hands in the air is very clear.
Why did they choose capture over simply running the other away into Russia?
A pair of tanks being driven to the village of Suzcha to help the Russians were blown up before they could even unload from their transports.
It’s also become clear that Russian units such as 75079 and its barracks were hit and destroyed as part of the preliminary operation.
There is also compelling evidence that at least two Russian Ka-52 attack helicopters were shot down – a rare sight these days as most were destroyed.
The purpose of the operation seems to more of a raid and disruption operation to distract the Russians and remind them that while they keep trying to frighten Ukraine with special forces raids and threats to expand the war, two can play at that game.
I don’t personally see any real point to these raids unless they have a very specific purpose in mind such as the capture of some key piece of equipment. To me these are troops and forces that could have been better employed elsewhere.
Even if it forces Russia to divert some effort it’s hardly going to change the situation much elsewhere on the front.
Still there we are, it’s happening and we’ll see how it pans out.”
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!
The most plausible cause that I’ve read about is Sudzha gas measuring station, to stop them selling gas over that pipe, and control over railroad that supplied enemy in Kharkiv. But it may as well be because they had no defences in that region (because kadyrovites are pathetic tiktok warriors)
The question boils down to. What are the Ukrainian losses? Are they minimal? We know Russia lost at least 2 helicopters and 2 tanks and captured a bunch of troops they don’t have to fight now. Next, Russia will have to bomb and use up material on their soil and not Ukraine. Every bomb used in Russia is 1 less bomb used to destroy a Ukrainian factory, business, home, power station or other infrastructure. In addition to that they are destroying their own businesses, homes, infrastructure, along with diverting resources to a situation on their territory instead of Ukraine. Can Ukraine take over a base? Can they now hit some transportation infrastructure used to move military goods?
So long as the losses are way less for Ukraine than Russia this is a great move.
SAMbush bait, perhaps?
Curious to see how this develops.
Cannot use long range missiles but can use Bradley’s very interesting development.
Remember Pigozin amost made it to Moscow.
There wasn’t a lot Russia was able to do to stop him except lie.
Perhaps Ukraine realizes this and maybe Russia has no realistic defenses.
Regardless, I hope they achieve their objectives.
Well, fighting Russians head on might be risky and hard; but this allows them to maneuver and I doubt Russian territory is heavily mined and obviously not well defended. They might be able to catch Russians trying to reposition/resupply troops or attack/cut off supply lines directly behind the Russian frontline troops. Russian Air Force might become vulnerable trying to attack the incursion forces while Ukraine’s anti air is pre positioned on the other side of the border. And we all saw how poor Russian command and control is, their moving troops might be sitting ducks.
A lot of people don’t understand the importance of raids. The purpose is to demonstrate that you hold areas at risk. If russia is forced to allocate resources to the defense of regions that aren’t on their advance axis then it’ll degrade their ability to push elsewhere.
This is especially true if it forces russia to distribute artillery ammo that otherwise would be used in the areas of advance. Since russia is predominately a fired based military, a loss of concentration of fires will substantially degrade their ability to achieve their military goals. This is also true of air assets. If they commit and risk air assets to prevent Ukrainian pushes in these areas, it’ll give Ukraine the ability to attrit those high value assets. Reference the reported downing of 2x Ka-52s. Ideally Ukraine hits and holds only as long as it takes to elicit a shift in forces to that region then withdraw with minimal casualties. Rinse and repeat in other areas to continue their operation of corroding russia’s ability to mass resources.
We haven’t seen stuff like this recently because Ukraine has been working hard at building their own defensive line and reconstitute/reorganize their forces. We’ll see how Ukraine wants to play it though.
What Ahmat Tea Doing?
The thing that comes to mind for me is the region probably isn’t miles and miles of minefields. In terms of an offensive, this will be the softest target while causing drama in Russia at large