Ukraine breaks silence on Kursk raid objectives

12 comments

1. TLDR; as expected it is to strengthen Ukraines position should there be negotiations

   “You can only squeeze something out, get something, if they understand that [the war] is not going according to their scenario,”

2. Newsweek is a garbage source. The goals were described in the vaguest possible terms.

   1. Something to bargain with if necessary,

   2. Make the Russians mad at Putin, weakening him.

3. Whatever the actual goals are, benefits include:
   – further humiliation of Russia internationally, and potentially cause some neutral countries to distance themselves.
   – it will make similar regimes think twice about invading their neighbours
   – Russia fanboys around the world and especially in the global south will feel embarassed

4. I don’t think they expect to hold the territory, but here are some speculative motives:

   – prove to west Russia won’t kneejerk resort to nukes if it’s territory is meaningfully impinged
   – opportunism: recon showed Russia’s become too casual around the border. As seen by the T-62s on trucks that were destroyed. Russia’s not treating it as a warzone and easy pickings are to be had in first 48-72 hours
   – the political embarrassment for Moscow relating to above point
   – Ukraine’s assessment based on previous Russian rebel incursions is Russia takes super panicky action when embarassed on its own territory and its easier to exact costs. Helicopter losses point to this.

5. And today’s ‘No Shit, Sherlock’ award goes to…

6. Strange, the fewer people that know ahead of time about Ukraine’s planned actions, the better the operation goes!

7. It will be hilarious when Russia tries to take it all back with scorched earth tactics.

8. This is a test……

   There is something else on the books.

9. Simply put: attack weakness vice strength

10. I’ve long thought that Ukraine will need to seize Russian territory at some point if they ever want this war to end without them becoming a Russian vassal state.

    Under present conditions, there’s no room for negotiations – Ukraine is saying (entirely justifiably) “Give us back all our land, POWs, and kidnapped kids,” but there’s nothing for them to offer Russia to try and secure the deal. If they have Russian land under their control, they can pitch it as an exchange of captured territory.

11. If anything these incursions mean Russia will have to put more effort into securing it’s borders, making offensives harder.

12. I’m just enjoying the show. UA is doing an amazing job showing how incompetent Putin and his minions are. Just make sure you can get back home safely, heroes!