Russia does not want to redeploy forces to Kursk to avoid disrupting their offensive – ISW

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/08/10/7469772/

by gatojump

36 comments

  2. Then Putin will reap the consequences. Useless ground his forces have shelled into oblivion for his pride, or Putin’s own nominal backyard.

  4. Seems like a reasonable response, if they can manage without them. Ukraine wants them to shift, after all.

  5. From ISW: [https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-8-2024](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-8-2024)

    **”If Russian reporting on the situation in Kursk Oblast is accurate and if the Russian military command perceives the situation to be the same as Russian sources have described, then the Russian military command has an array of likely courses of action (COAs) it could pursue to respond to the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast.**

    **COA 1: The Russian military command may decide to use existing conscripts, Federal Security Service (FSB) border guards, Rosgvardia, and other irregular forces already deployed to the international border area to push Ukrainian forces back and defend against the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast.**

    **COA 2: The Russian military command may decide to use the existing Northern Grouping of Forces deployed along the Russian-Ukrainian border to respond to the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast.**

    **COA 3: The Russian military command may choose to redeploy operational reserves that it accumulated for its planned Summer 2024 offensive effort and/or relatively better provisioned and more combat effective frontline units to Kursk Oblast from elsewhere in the theater.**

    **COA 4: The Russian military command may seek to maintain the forces it currently has committed to Kursk Oblast but could redeploy significant aviation and strike elements to the area in an effort to improve Russia’s ability to retake territory.”**

  6. TL/DR: We’re fucked, the situation is fucked but there’s nothing we can do because our rail lines are fucked and have been for quite some time even though we’ve hid it well.

  7. If Ukrainian army Reach Lgow railway, Russian will not longer have chance to any offensive due through this Citi going Primary Russian Logistic Route around ~33% supplies go this way for Russian army deployed in Ukraine

  8. Regardless of what the Russians do, it’s win/win for Ukraine. They get to move the fighting to Russian cities. Russia will have to divert some bombing of Ukraine cities to bomb Russian ones instead.

    If Russia chooses to use conscripts or the home guard, Ukraine will have a super easy go of things and make more advances and capture large numbers of POWs.

  9. Putin continues to demonstrate his 4D grandmaster strategic brilliance

  10. I am pretty sure thier offensive in the Donbass is “succeeding” because Ukraine is bleeding them and not throwing away lives for rubble and they have obviously held a lot of force back that could have been bled dry holding destroyed ground. Some of thier advances look like they are ready to be pinched off by Ukraine when they choose.

  11. I think they’ll use *reserves* from their offensive axes but continue their assaults. Along with conscripts, etc. that will keep Ukraine from speed running all of their objectives.

    Regardless, I’ll be interested to see what happens north of Kharkiv with **one of the two rail lines into Belgorad cut off**. Fingers crossed for a rout back across the border.

  12. No problem. After the referendum the Kursk’s People’s Republic will join Ukraine.

  13. You can see a situation here where the Russian generals a paralysed by second guessing themselves. Ukraine has forged an opportunity to drag Russian forces around the map and open opportunities elsewhere. Long may it continue.

  14. Russia wants… Russian doesn’t want…

    We don’t care! 🇺🇦

  17. Good, don’t redeploy them. Keep sending inexperienced troops while Ukraine keeps sending their best. I do believe that putin might send some of his personal army(rosguardia). But they are good at only beating protesters and arresting innocent people, so I doubt they will be a problem for Ukraine.

  18. Next question, is Russias command structure set up to handle an occupation of Moscow, Perm was the last city that fell during the last revolution, so where would Putin flee to

  22. Oh really?

    Maybe Ukraine should seize their nuclear power plant.

    If they keep thinking this is a bluff, Ukraine should make a run at Moscow. Finish what Wagner’s failed rebellion failed to do.

  26. It doesn’t matter the russians want, or don’t want. At some point they are going to have to do it, whether they like it or not.

  29. This is good.

    Russian veterans will stay in Ukraine far from Russia and close to strong defences.

    Meanwhile Ukraine’s fast moving units will be driving rapidly to destroy transport nodes, supply depots, factories, airports, everything that supplies those veterans and keeps them in the field.

    Inevitably, when ammo-less and starving, even veteran soldiers surrender without a struggle.

  30. Another way of saying it … “we don’t have enough troops to cover two fronts”. Ukraine should push harder!!

  31. It’s a dilema, if they redeploy forces they weaken their own forces elsewhere, if they don’t Ukraine will continue to advance, they are fucked either way

  32. Курск наш!

    Наша земля як колись було.

  34. Personally, I think Ukraine will withdraw from Kursk in under 6 months. But that withdrawal will come at a cost for the ruzzians. Ukraine will demand the release of ALL POWs that were captured, several important other VIPs, probably some money (will be paid quietly behind the scenes) and something else. Holding this land is expensive for Ukraine as well, but the PR hit will be impossible for putin.

    NOTE: This is my hypothesis and if I’m wrong, I’m wrong.

  35. The ~~flogging~~ invasions will continue until ~~morale~~ ~~improves~~ troops are redeployed

  36. ruzzian propagandists are already stating on some telegram channels that a number of brigades and battalions are being pulled from across Ukraine. There is a post on one of the subs with a snapshot of the units.

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