**On Monday 25 October, the national operator of the electricity transmission network (RTE) published a vast study aimed at defining the future of the French electricity system.**
It is an understatement to say that this work was awaited, and that it will be commented on. On Monday 25 October, the national manager of the electricity transmission network (RTE) published the main findings of a vast study aimed at defining the future of the French electricity system. Launched in 2019 at the request of the government, this forward-looking exercise entitled “Energy Futures 2050” sets out six scenarios designed to achieve carbon neutrality in thirty years’ time, and thus to combat climate change.
For the country’s future electricity production, the various trajectories range from a “100% renewable energy” option to another with 50% nuclear power. In each case, the company RTE, which is majority-owned by EDF and the Caisse des Dépôts, describes the conditions of technical feasibility, but also the cost and the expected impact on the environment and on society. In addition to this first report of some 600 pages, the full results of the modelling should be made public in early 2022.
Published six months before the presidential election, this study is expected to weigh heavily in the political debate. In the context of an ageing nuclear fleet, France, and therefore the contenders for the Elysée Palace, are faced with an important choice: replace certain end-of-life reactors with new ones, or focus on the development of renewable energies. While most of the candidates have already declared their willingness to revive the atomic industry or not, Emmanuel Macron is expected to take a position in the coming weeks, given that the President declared on 12 October, during the presentation of the France 2030 plan, that the country “still needs this technology”, which emits very little carbon dioxide but is contested in particular because of the radioactive waste that it generates. RTE, for its part, hopes to contribute to a debate that is “as enlightened and informed as possible”. There is an urgent need to mobilise and choose a direction,” emphasises Xavier Piechaczyk, Chairman of the Executive Board. We are in a race against time to respond to the climate crisis. All the scenarios require considerable investment and it is time to take a decision.
* **Two prerequisites: security of supply and carbon neutrality**
Each of the six scenarios presented meets two prerequisites. First, to ensure the security of supply of the French electricity system. The model used by RTE simulates the balance between consumption and production at every hour of every day and every year for thirty years, while taking into account meteorological criteria. “Some scenarios are more demanding or more uncertain, but all guarantee us exactly the same security of supply as today,” insists Mr Piechaczyk.
Secondly, to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Achieving this goal will require efficiency gains, for example through more efficient computers or refrigerators, or through the renovation of buildings. The challenge is to reduce global energy consumption by almost half over three decades, from around 1 600 terawatt hours (TWh) to 930 TWh, according to the National Low Carbon Strategy, a government roadmap, the new version of which was adopted in 2020 and which must be updated every five years. But this will also require a significant electrification of uses. Today, 63% of the energy consumed in France is still derived from fossil fuels, which are synonymous with CO2 emissions. To eliminate oil and gas in the long term, thermal vehicles will have to be replaced by electric ones, blast furnaces used in the steel industry by electric ones, and oil-fired heating by heat pumps, again electric ones… As a result, electricity will become the majority energy source in 2050 and will account for 55% of the energy mix (compared with 25% today).
>”We are facing a double challenge,” summarises Xavier Piechaczyk. The first is to produce more electricity to replace oil and fossil gas. The second is purely French: we will have to replace the production of the second-generation nuclear fleet, which will have to close for industrial reasons by 2060.”
* **Consumption: three trajectories for a societal debate**
This was one of the most divisive questions during the discussions prior to the elaboration of the scenarios, in which around a hundred organisations and institutions took part: how much electricity will the French consume in 2050? “The consultation process gave rise to sometimes violent, highly polarised positions on the issue of sobriety: for some people, it is a matter of course, while others reject the very principle in the name of individual freedoms,” explains Thomas Veyrenc, Executive Director of Strategy and Forecasting at RTE. The six scenarios presented on Monday are calculated from a “reference” consumption trajectory inspired by the National Low Carbon Strategy. According to this strategy, electricity consumption would amount to 645 TWh in 2050 – compared to an average of nearly 475 TWh over the past decade. It takes into account significant gains in energy efficiency but does not imply any changes in French lifestyles.RTE has also studied two other possible consumption trajectories – without, however, at this stage of the work, detailing them in as much detail as the so-called “reference” trajectory. The “sobriety” trajectory (554 TWh) would require a proactive policy and societal changes: The negaWatt association, which has long defended sobriety, makes more or less the same consumption hypothesis (530 TWh) in its latest study, unveiled on 20 October – negaWatt, however, excludes any recourse to nuclear power after 2045.
1 comment
*(French paywall so I translated here)*
**On Monday 25 October, the national operator of the electricity transmission network (RTE) published a vast study aimed at defining the future of the French electricity system.**
It is an understatement to say that this work was awaited, and that it will be commented on. On Monday 25 October, the national manager of the electricity transmission network (RTE) published the main findings of a vast study aimed at defining the future of the French electricity system. Launched in 2019 at the request of the government, this forward-looking exercise entitled “Energy Futures 2050” sets out six scenarios designed to achieve carbon neutrality in thirty years’ time, and thus to combat climate change.
For the country’s future electricity production, the various trajectories range from a “100% renewable energy” option to another with 50% nuclear power. In each case, the company RTE, which is majority-owned by EDF and the Caisse des Dépôts, describes the conditions of technical feasibility, but also the cost and the expected impact on the environment and on society. In addition to this first report of some 600 pages, the full results of the modelling should be made public in early 2022.
Published six months before the presidential election, this study is expected to weigh heavily in the political debate. In the context of an ageing nuclear fleet, France, and therefore the contenders for the Elysée Palace, are faced with an important choice: replace certain end-of-life reactors with new ones, or focus on the development of renewable energies. While most of the candidates have already declared their willingness to revive the atomic industry or not, Emmanuel Macron is expected to take a position in the coming weeks, given that the President declared on 12 October, during the presentation of the France 2030 plan, that the country “still needs this technology”, which emits very little carbon dioxide but is contested in particular because of the radioactive waste that it generates. RTE, for its part, hopes to contribute to a debate that is “as enlightened and informed as possible”. There is an urgent need to mobilise and choose a direction,” emphasises Xavier Piechaczyk, Chairman of the Executive Board. We are in a race against time to respond to the climate crisis. All the scenarios require considerable investment and it is time to take a decision.
* **Two prerequisites: security of supply and carbon neutrality**
Each of the six scenarios presented meets two prerequisites. First, to ensure the security of supply of the French electricity system. The model used by RTE simulates the balance between consumption and production at every hour of every day and every year for thirty years, while taking into account meteorological criteria. “Some scenarios are more demanding or more uncertain, but all guarantee us exactly the same security of supply as today,” insists Mr Piechaczyk.
Secondly, to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Achieving this goal will require efficiency gains, for example through more efficient computers or refrigerators, or through the renovation of buildings. The challenge is to reduce global energy consumption by almost half over three decades, from around 1 600 terawatt hours (TWh) to 930 TWh, according to the National Low Carbon Strategy, a government roadmap, the new version of which was adopted in 2020 and which must be updated every five years. But this will also require a significant electrification of uses. Today, 63% of the energy consumed in France is still derived from fossil fuels, which are synonymous with CO2 emissions. To eliminate oil and gas in the long term, thermal vehicles will have to be replaced by electric ones, blast furnaces used in the steel industry by electric ones, and oil-fired heating by heat pumps, again electric ones… As a result, electricity will become the majority energy source in 2050 and will account for 55% of the energy mix (compared with 25% today).
>”We are facing a double challenge,” summarises Xavier Piechaczyk. The first is to produce more electricity to replace oil and fossil gas. The second is purely French: we will have to replace the production of the second-generation nuclear fleet, which will have to close for industrial reasons by 2060.”
* **Consumption: three trajectories for a societal debate**
This was one of the most divisive questions during the discussions prior to the elaboration of the scenarios, in which around a hundred organisations and institutions took part: how much electricity will the French consume in 2050? “The consultation process gave rise to sometimes violent, highly polarised positions on the issue of sobriety: for some people, it is a matter of course, while others reject the very principle in the name of individual freedoms,” explains Thomas Veyrenc, Executive Director of Strategy and Forecasting at RTE. The six scenarios presented on Monday are calculated from a “reference” consumption trajectory inspired by the National Low Carbon Strategy. According to this strategy, electricity consumption would amount to 645 TWh in 2050 – compared to an average of nearly 475 TWh over the past decade. It takes into account significant gains in energy efficiency but does not imply any changes in French lifestyles.RTE has also studied two other possible consumption trajectories – without, however, at this stage of the work, detailing them in as much detail as the so-called “reference” trajectory. The “sobriety” trajectory (554 TWh) would require a proactive policy and societal changes: The negaWatt association, which has long defended sobriety, makes more or less the same consumption hypothesis (530 TWh) in its latest study, unveiled on 20 October – negaWatt, however, excludes any recourse to nuclear power after 2045.
(1/3)