Democrats warn against overconfidence amid Harris momentum

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4830091-democrats-kamala-harris-optimistic-cautious-2024-election/

47 comments

  1. The polls are very close and Trump is still leading in a few. This is good motivation to get people to VOTE

  2. Democrats need to keep hammering him relentlessly. It’s what he would do. Then we have to vote.

  3. Harris looks capable of returning NC to the blue column if this momentum continues.

  4. I’m already voting, and telling others to vote. It’s just nice to feel hope for once

  5. How about we don’t act like a bunch of mamby pambies and, for once, we leverage this rare momentum without guilt or fear? Let’s go.

  6. Instead of warning about “complacency.” The message should be “step on the gas.”

    Small lead in the polls? You gotta pump those numbers up those are rookie numbers.

  7. I’m seeing exactly zero evidence to support the idea that the Harris campaign, or Democratic leadership, is being overconfident. They have continued their direct, contrasting style of communication to the letter. 

    Every DNC speaker needs to follow the same playbook. No victory lap or pats on the back, just continue to hammer home the middle class, “we work for you” messaging. 

  9. For those of us who were born in a year starting with a “1,” we all have long term memories from 2016.

  10. Her opponent just said medal of freedom recipients are better than Medal of Honor recipients, but don’t get overconfident?????

  11. There’s a difference between overconfidence and complacency.

    I don’t think anyone is being overconfident, but no one can afford to be complacent and think that Harris has this thing in the bag. Get involved if you can. And vote like our democracy depends on it…because it does.

  12. ALWAYS assume it’s 50/50 and the margin comes down to YOUR vote

  13. Redditors warn against overconfidence amid Harris momentum.

  14. We all remember 2016, and how Clinton lost in spite good polls. But I remember 2016. I voted for Clinton, but I didn’t feel great about it, and I voted for every democrat since I was old enough with Kerry. 

    I do feel great about voting for Harris. 

  15. Ya I’m pretty sure they learned from Hillary fiasco.

  16. I’m personally working on getting maga not to vote at all.

  18. Yep, harris is in the lead right now but not by enough that the dynamics of the race can’t change. 80 days is a long time, especially given how the last month feels like three. That’s not even considering what the GOP might do to throw the election if she wins the EC, all it takes is one slate of loony electors to not certify and the whole thing goes to the house who will pick trump.

  19. we can do both. We can celebrate and then we can then vote.

  20. Do we have any real data that suggests people stay home because they think their candidate will win?

    2016 ain’t it. There was higher turnout than the previous election with Obama. And all the others going back to at least 1980 (excluding 2004 and 2008).

    So folks keep hammering on this but it doesn’t seem to be a thing that can be proven with data.

  21. We’re not overconfident, we’re just excited that we have a chance now. Biden, unfortunately, did not give us this excitement and we were legit worried that he would not win.

    Kamala and Walz renewed our faith in the Democrats.

  22. You work every day until Election Day. It’s really that simple.

  23. As they say on the internet, “Vote or it didn’t happen.” Register where you’ll be living in November. Figure out how to vote by mail. Vote early.

  24. All we got to do is show up and try to get others to show up. Overconfidence is really only applicable to the campaign and how they choose to spend resources. I’m hopeful they can get aggressive and go for Florida or Texas, but just winning the “true swing states” is still a win

  25. Vote. Vote. Oh I have something to do today, don’t worry about it, vote.

    Election day should be a holiday, but one way to guarantee it’s not is to not vote.

  26. Don’t forget how confident we were in 2016 that Hillary would win. Keep working it.

  27. Nothing is ever in the bag when it comes to the Electoral College. Vote and fight misinformation. I’ve noticed MAGA peddling bs on social media to try and argue policy under a fake banner of honest debate (instead of their typical deflection).

    – Sharing debunked charts/memes

    – Linking old data

    – Linking convoluted articles mismatching their conclusions.

    etc etc

    The recent medicare insulin news being one example.

  28. Remind yourself that overconfidence is a slow, and insidious killer.

    — The Ancestor

  30. Confidence and frenzy to finally be rid of Trump is so, soooo much better than all the think pieces and fundraising emails that might as well be “Thinking of ending things…”

  31. I won’t be very satisfied with a marginal win anyway, I want the orange wannabe dictator to get obliterated at the polls.

  32. Do not get complacent.
    Republicans have no chance of “winning” but that hasn’t stopped them from installing the last two GOP trash bags.

    They will attempt to overturn the results by any means necessary.

  33. I identify as a democrat not only because of their platform but as a Chicago sports fan as well. Hope is a dangerous drug.

  34. This fear is mostly the brunch liberals projecting, as it is they themselves who are actually more prone to tune out from details and policy when their party is winning elections because they think electoral politics is everything.

    The whole reason Harris has momentum is because of an energized base and new/swing voters who are now extremely motivated to vote for something other than two very old and unexciting white men.

    That momentum won’t subside with growing leads in the polls. Again, this is the moderate liberal projecting their own behavior and sentiment onto different-thinking people.

    H. Clinton didn’t lose because young and swing voters were so enthusiastic for her that they assumed everyone else would vote for her and Dems would win.

    Clinton lost because she was a polarizing figure who carried herself quite smugly during her campaign and made unforced errors (like calling Trump supporters – true as it was – a “basket of deplorables” on national television). She lost a very winnable election because of her own ego and inability to understand what people disliked about her and why so many were interested in Trump. So a lot of people who may have wanted to vote against Trump didn’t have the motivation to vote for Hillary.

    Kamala Harris is not Hillary Clinton, and Tim Walz is not Tim Kaine.

    This is a new generation.

  38. I never really understood this, is there actual proof that shows when people get overly confident that they actually don’t vote? I see this repeated all the time, but I never see any stats or data to back it up.

  39. Not overconfident.

    *Excited.*

    *Motivated*

    Let’s fucking go.

  40. What people need to remember is we don’t need to beat him.

    We need to *destroy* him and his entire fucking movement.

    There needs to be no reason to ever run a maga candidate ever again.

    Keep the pressure on. Get out and vote. Make it a landslide.

  41. I don’t think anyone is overconfident. But good news is not bad news. There’s absolutely still a 3 month fight ahead of us, and there’s no telling how it’s gonna go, but right now it’s going well.

  42. 2016, remember that.
    Vote, engage, inspire to vote Democrat!

    US, and the world, needs to rebuke authoritarians!

  43. The only reason I’m confident is I think the timing of Biden dropping out and Kamala/Walz becoming the ticket will mean less likelihood that the momentum wears off before the election.

  44. The messaging shouldn’t be that we need to win in November; the messaging should be that we need to crush Project 2025 and the fascist agenda under a tsunami of blue votes.

    It’s not about winning – it’s about sending a message that we, the people, don’t want what the GOP is selling.

  46. Don’t mistake enthusiasm for overconfidence. Everybody who’s been excited about Kamala I’ve interacted with is also vehemently reminding people to vote.

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