Very good article – a bit long by Reddit standards but worth reading if you care to truly get a sense of the Chinese thinking.
>”*After watching two years of war in Ukraine, however, many have concluded that the West has no stomach for conflict and will grow tired of supporting democracies facing an invading force if the economic costs are high*”
I think there is some truth to this, in that the general public gets tired of hearing about this or that conflict, and just want to go back to living their lives etc.
What the Chinese might be missing or ignoring, however, is how many Western countries’ governments have significantly “tooled up” since the war started.
Production lines of arms and ammo have been (re)created and dependence from external energy sources (or at least potentially hostile partners) have been progressively minimised.
Countries like Poland, South Korea and Australia have been going on massive shopping sprees for their militaries, and more NATO countries are actually hitting (or even surpassing) their “2% of GDP” defence spending targets.
So while China perceives that the general public may not have “a stomach” for it (which although may be true, public perception can easily turn on a dime, given the right circumstances), their governments are more ready now for conflict than they’ve been in a long time.
The window is now open for a Chinese invasion of Siberia. The unfettered access to Siberian resources a Chinese occupation would provide is going to be too tempting for them to pass up.
If China wants to equate improved relations with Russia against the deterioration in relations of everyone else in the western world, then they are more foolish than I would have imagined them to be. If China wants to find itself The big brother to a broken and corrupt Russia rather than an investment hub and research center that collaborates actively with the West, then they are more foolish than I would have imagined them to be. Sanctions are known to be fallible in the sense that the sanctioned parties will adapt to work around them, and that the long course of sanctions require them to be adjusted over time, which they will be.
It should be noted too that from available external observation that the Russian system is so corrupted, is so nepotistic, his so top oriented, that no one should seriously be concerned with Russia investing more in any of their processes or systems. These investments are likely to be squandered through corrupt individuals, mafioso types who leech the funds into their own pockets, and fund projects which are limited in their ability to execute due to supply and brain power.
Lastly, if China has not been paying attention, the USA has grown tired of having its intellectual property shamelessly stolen and inferior goods dumped on its markets, and is just looking for good reason to unite as a country to divest itself of China ‘s goods. China seems to be serving this opportunity up on a silver platter for the USA to unite against China for good reason and achieve what many have wanted to achieve for a long time already.
5 comments
Very good article – a bit long by Reddit standards but worth reading if you care to truly get a sense of the Chinese thinking.
>”*After watching two years of war in Ukraine, however, many have concluded that the West has no stomach for conflict and will grow tired of supporting democracies facing an invading force if the economic costs are high*”
I think there is some truth to this, in that the general public gets tired of hearing about this or that conflict, and just want to go back to living their lives etc.
What the Chinese might be missing or ignoring, however, is how many Western countries’ governments have significantly “tooled up” since the war started.
Production lines of arms and ammo have been (re)created and dependence from external energy sources (or at least potentially hostile partners) have been progressively minimised.
Countries like Poland, South Korea and Australia have been going on massive shopping sprees for their militaries, and more NATO countries are actually hitting (or even surpassing) their “2% of GDP” defence spending targets.
So while China perceives that the general public may not have “a stomach” for it (which although may be true, public perception can easily turn on a dime, given the right circumstances), their governments are more ready now for conflict than they’ve been in a long time.
The window is now open for a Chinese invasion of Siberia. The unfettered access to Siberian resources a Chinese occupation would provide is going to be too tempting for them to pass up.
If China wants to equate improved relations with Russia against the deterioration in relations of everyone else in the western world, then they are more foolish than I would have imagined them to be. If China wants to find itself The big brother to a broken and corrupt Russia rather than an investment hub and research center that collaborates actively with the West, then they are more foolish than I would have imagined them to be. Sanctions are known to be fallible in the sense that the sanctioned parties will adapt to work around them, and that the long course of sanctions require them to be adjusted over time, which they will be.
It should be noted too that from available external observation that the Russian system is so corrupted, is so nepotistic, his so top oriented, that no one should seriously be concerned with Russia investing more in any of their processes or systems. These investments are likely to be squandered through corrupt individuals, mafioso types who leech the funds into their own pockets, and fund projects which are limited in their ability to execute due to supply and brain power.
Lastly, if China has not been paying attention, the USA has grown tired of having its intellectual property shamelessly stolen and inferior goods dumped on its markets, and is just looking for good reason to unite as a country to divest itself of China ‘s goods. China seems to be serving this opportunity up on a silver platter for the USA to unite against China for good reason and achieve what many have wanted to achieve for a long time already.
Good news for Russia to get F***** **.