DUP support plummets while Sinn Fein increases lead as NI’s largest party, poll finds
New poll shows that both the UUP and TUV increase support at the expense of their rival
Sinn Fein has increased its lead as Northern Ireland’s largest party as DUP support plummets and its unionist rivals make gains.
Michelle O’Neill’s party now has a massive 12-point lead over Gavin Robinson’s, according to a new LucidTalk poll for the Belfast Telegraph.
On 30%, Sinn Fein is up one point from our last Assembly poll in May, while the DUP is down three points to 18%.
Alliance remains unchanged in third spot on 15%. After taking seats from the DUP in South and North Antrim in last month’s Westminster election, the UUP and the TUV are both on the rise.
The UUP is up one point to 12%, although the poll was largely conducted before Doug Beattie’s shock resignation and the eruption of major divisions in the party which are likely to see its support plummet.
On 9%, the TUV is up one point in the wake of Jim Allister’s high-profile defeat of Ian Paisley. It has overtaken the SDLP which has seen no post-General Election bounce and is unchanged from three months ago on 8%.
The Greens are up one point to 2% while People Before Profit is static on 1%. Aontu is down one point to 1%, while others and independents are unchanged on 4%.
Some 3,443 people took part in our online poll conducted from August 16-19. The sample was scientifically weighted to reflect the Northern Ireland population.
People were asked who they would vote for in an Assembly election with the assumption that all our parties will run in every constituency.
The scores reflect the differences from last month’s Westminster contest where some parties stood aside in constituencies they had no chance of winning.
In the General Election, Sinn Fein secured 27% of the vote, the DUP 22%, Alliance 15%, the UUP 12%, the SDLP 11% and the TUV 6%.
Sinn Fein didn’t run in South Belfast and Mid Down, Lagan Valley, East Belfast and North Down, which helped the SDLP and Alliance.
The DUP opted out in North Down to assist independent unionist Alex Easton, and in Fermanagh and South Tyrone in an unsuccessful attempt to help Ulster Unionist Diana Armstrong take the seat from Sinn Fein.
Alliance and the SDLP contested every constituency, while the UUP ran everywhere bar North Belfast. However, the TUV stood in only 14 constituencies which deflated its overall vote.
LucidTalk’s poll shows how Sinn Fein has succeeded more than any other party in broadening its support far beyond its traditional base.
It outpolls the SDLP by six-to-one among the working class, and also by three-to-one among the middle class.
Women (30%) and men (28%) back the party in almost equal measure. By contrast, all three unionist parties have trouble attracting female support.
While 21% of men back the DUP in our poll, just 15% of women do. Around one in seven men support the UUP compared to only one in 10 women.
Two-thirds of TUV voters are men, according to our survey. The positions are reversed with Alliance which is far more popular with females (19%) than with males (12%).
Unionism also has an ageing voter base. Support for the DUP (26%) and TUV (13%) is strongest among those in late middle-age – 55-64 year-olds – than any other age group. The UUP is most popular among the retired (17%).
While Sinn Fein attracts the same level of middle class as working class support (33%), the SDLP has twice as much support among the middle class (10%) as among the working class (5%).
It’s a similar situation with Alliance which is supported by more than twice as many middle class (19%) as working class (8%) people.
The DUP is backed by 21% of working class voters and 16% of middle class voters.
by vague_intentionally_
7 comments
I’m going to be really difficult here OP, but the link must be to the article, _not_ to an archive of the article. I’m not going to say you can’t use the archive to get the text, but you need to link to the original article.
Derry man here. I voted SDLP for Westminster elections but I’d vote Sinn Fein 123 for Stormont. I want representation even if it has minimal impact.
As a Good Friday child I just can’t stand them anymore. Any of them. I was first interested in ni21 and from there alliance and most recently SDLP. Never aligned with any “hard” side but for the love of god can we please have arguments and debates based on the future and not the past.
I hoped voting for the middle ground would have snowballed post GFA but it hasn’t and has just created a new non conformist tribe which can be as vitreous as the “hard” left and right in their quest to be neither.
I don’t know what the solution is.
Says the famous local shite-rag, The Belfast Telegraph. Give me a break! 🙈
The DUP are still paying the price for betraying the unionist people over the protocol/Windsor framework issue.
>Unionism also has an ageing voter base. Support for the DUP (26%) and TUV (13%) is strongest among those in late middle-age – 55-64 year-olds – than any other age group. The UUP is most popular among the retired (17%).
This was reflected in the age graph nationalities of the last census too. It’s going to be a sober reality for Unionist support before long.
I posted this on the other thread that was removed for some reason.
i don’t like sinn féin for a multitude of reasons (including the fact i’m a socialist) but i vote for them is because my belief is a united ireland under capitalism is better than partition under capitalism. shinners have proven they’ll get shit done in the north, which i can’t say the same for the south and i think MON is a good leader while i dont agree with a large portion of her politic.