Expert has theory why Putin hasn’t responded to Ukraine’s attack on Russian city

19 comments

1. Hé doesn’t have the forces. Duh.

2. Click bait the city is Kursk and the expert speculates letting Kursk be threatened will help Putin sell mass mobilization, once the population feels threatened enough

3. The Russian style of warfare is to reduce everything to rubble with artillery. It’s desirable to do the fighting in enemy territory so that your own territory doesn’t get reduced to rubble. Putin wants to force Ukraine to redeploy their troops to stop his advance in Western Ukraine, Ukraine wants Putin to redeploy his troops to stop their advance in Kursk.

4. Putin hasn’t responded because he is indecisive, we have seen it several times during this war. It took him weeks to deal with the Wagner insurrection.

5. Response to problem means acknowledging the problem

6. Seems like he’s planning on having Belarus do it for him

   That totally won’t backfire

7. Suddenly his doubles disappeared. He has to do it all by himself, scaring.

8. The city of Kursk isn’t remotely threatened.  Might be in atacm or stormshadow range but it would have been before the incursion too.  Considering the city of Kursk under impending threat from Ukraine is near fantasy.  

9. I think they are out of position logistically and with man power. So what can they do now that’s not going to end up in a lopsided kill ratio on terain that may not be favorable to them? And what was also mentioned is that they might not be comfortable going scorched earth on their own soil like they do in Ukraine

10. An expert because of her years in military command and service or because a diploma and CNN says she is? Idk, I am an armchair expert too, so I know one when I see one.

11. Really depends on how people define “respond”.

    I mean, with one definition, Putin really hasn’t “responded” to this 2.5+ years of war…

    But Putin did react to the Kursk incursion didn’t he? If they expect responses to be condemnations, he can’t, because Ukraine is still obviously only doing much less than what Russia has been doing, so if he goes into this “genocide” propaganda we’ve all seen too much of recently, he’d only be dropping rocks on his own foot.

    If they expect responses to be effective retaliations, reinforcements have been dealt with along the way (long travel). AOE attacks wouldn’t be plausible there like within Ukraine territory, *not* because it’d kill his own civilians (he doesn’t care about this), but because he’d anticipate too big an internal resistance against this “military operation”.

12. Putin downplaying the invasion of Kursk makes sense and is to be expected. Remember, despite being talked-up as a “chessmaster”, Putin’s real game is not chess; it’s poker. This is the poker face in action.

    Ukraine’s gains in Kursk are not strategically important. It’s a bargaining chip. How much worth it has as a bargaining chip depends on how much value it is perceived to have. (Western analysts have done much the same with settlements occupied by Russia in the Donbas). Putin is also still under the assumption that the war will end with a negotiated settlement, and he wants it to favor him. So, If Putin denies it has any value, then it sets the conditions for him to give it little value – meaning offer little for it – in any negotiations.

    As added plusses to this plan:

    1. If he behaves consistently with his words, and deals with this only tepidly, it means not having to divide his forces or attention, and allows him to focus on continuing carving up Ukraine and cementing his gains there, which is what he believes to be the path to victory.

    2. He probably will get this back eventually without firing a shot and look like a genius.

    3. It’s a sparsely-populated sub-region, not an existential threat.

    There are potential problems with this plan.

    1. The war may not end for Putin with negotiated settlements – at least not ones he’s part. There’s an outside chance that it ends (for him) with his defenstration. Is this highly likely? No. I don’t think it is. And he must not either. But there’s an outside chance.

    2. If he does get to the negotiating table, Little Russia’s is not entirely acting alone. Russia needs the cooperation of powerful neighbors – Hungary, Turkey, India, China. All are currently friendly with Russia, but all are strategic relationships. They may see it as having more value than he does, and he may need to yield to their appraisal. This is very high chance – it’s already happening – his neighbors are looking at him and seeing weakness, whether he wants to admit it or not.

    3. If he even so much as hedges his strategy and divers significant troops, he’s proven again to be a liar. (This also may not bother him much. After all, it’s all poker, in a vranyo culture.)

    4. The war may end with neither Putin’s defenestration, nor Ukraine suing for peace. It may end – and I think it is most likely to end – with a large tactical rout of Russian’s troops, as they continue to tread water in manpower, cannot risk mobilization, and have wasted their material advantages, while Ukraine continues to build a stronger, more resilient, better-supplied force. Every day this fight gets harder for Russia. The momentum may shift so hard against Russia that these gains will become more significant, and Putin will want his land back. If this war ends in an Armistice rather than a peace treaty, that could be very significant as far as the desired “buffer zone.”

13. There’s a massive ongoing missile attack now

14. He is shitting in his pants while hiding in deepest corner of his bunker

15. > Expert has theory why Putin hasn’t responded to Ukraine’s attack on Russian city

    > Russian President Vladimir Putin’s muted response to Ukraine’s incursion that is threatening the Russian city of Kursk has made her curious.

    So which is it? Putin hasn’t responded, or his response is muted? Ukraine attacked Kursk, or it’s threatening?

    This is not journalism. These people can’t even hold a coherent idea in their heads long enough to type it. Everyone’s got a theory, and I see nothing to recommend this one.

16. Putin knows Ukraine wont go for Kursk, while the current territory held by Ukraine doesnt really mean much to Russia/Putin. They’ll stabilize the front over there, and wait it out. Russia really has no incentive to pull large numbers of troops from eastern front, but they’d have to if Ukraine actually went for Kursk.

17. I think it’s simpler than that, he’s a coward. He disappears as soon as any bad news come up because he doesn’t want to get associated with bad things, only good things. He doesn’t own up to any mistakes because he considers it a sign of weakness. If you ask me it’s completely backwards, but I guess it worked for him so far. Add that on top of the old soviet tradition of covering up disasters too, and there you have it.

18. Ya didn’t think Ukraine would go for the city. Just kind of hoped they take the NPP though. But stop just short of the city.

19. Is this another claim Putin is playing 4d chess? I mean at some point you got to call a spade a spade and stop believing in higher motives for every action or inaction.