New Research Suggests Earth’s Climate is Much More Sensitive to CO2 Than Originally Thought
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47676-9
by BalticBrew
New Research Suggests Earth’s Climate is Much More Sensitive to CO2 Than Originally Thought
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47676-9
by BalticBrew
2 comments
**Key Findings:**
1. **pCO2 Decline:** The study reveals a steady decline in pCO2 from around 650 ppmv in the mid-Miocene (15 million years ago) to about 280 ppmv in the late Pleistocene (0.3 million years ago). This trend mirrors the observed global temperature decline over the same period.
2. **High Climate Sensitivity:** The researchers calculated Earth System Sensitivity (ESS) and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) based on their pCO2 reconstructions and proxy-derived temperature records. The estimated values are significantly higher than those in the latest IPCC report, suggesting a greater sensitivity of Earth’s climate to CO2 changes.
3. **Implications:** If these findings are accurate, they imply that the Earth’s climate is more sensitive to CO2 increases than previously thought. This could mean that future warming projections may be underestimated, highlighting the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Basically, if this is true, even the most pessimistic earlier projections are actually severely underestimating the potential temperature rise (and everything that comes with it). This may not turn out to be an entirely accurate new estimate, but if it is, then it might simply be too late for anything.