The Economist: How Vladimir Putin hopes to transform Russian trade. He believes the country’s future lies with China and India. What could go wrong?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/08/28/how-vladimir-putin-hopes-to-transform-russian-trade
by Horsepankake
26 comments
China and India are already fully exploiting Russian resources buying them at very discounted prices.
China has medium/long term plans that collide heavily with Russia. They even altered their maps claiming Vladivostok and the region is theirs recently.
India is also not interested in putin’s regime ideologically and actually despises the ethnic russians, but oil and gas at discounted prices is too irresistible for now.
Both countries trade heavily with Europe and USA and depend on the west to enjoy economical growth. When Russia will be on it’s last breath they will turn their backs and forget it immediately.
His tiny problem is that his market is tiny compared to EU and US. So India and China will prefer to compromise with “the West” just for economical reasons, no matter any sympathy for the weird Tsar.
No idea since its paywalled.
Perhaps the pipeline that was supposed to redirect gas sales from Europe to China that got 0 funding from China and there are no plans to actually build it.
Or that the payments don’t go through because Chinese banks don’t want to deal with Russia.
Can’t know. Paywalled.
This is one of the things that puzzle me, historicly and culturaly connection and friendship with the west is much more logical. Also the troubles on the longen term will be with China and the countries between them.
Putin “ I really hope that China and India will keep us afloat; you know just because we are so damn pretty!”
tbf to Putin it’s his ONLY market now. Nobody will have any trust in Russia or investing in Russia for over a decade even if he is removed and the war ends tomorrow.
If China get orstracised with invading Taiwan then he might have the last laugh. Somehow the world will condemn it but will do nothing so he won’t
Haha
A lot could go wrong, India & China’s economies can’t weather economic downturns, recessions and other market volatilities as well as the United States and the EU can…
China is the same red cancer cell as the Russia
When you ally with unscrupulous people don’t be surprised that they’ll stab you in the back any time it conveniences them
One issue to consider is that even China is leary of investing in Russia. A country that unilaterally rewrites business ownership cannot be trusted.
Russia literally has nothing except raw materials for others to do actually useful stuff.
China and India have realized that Europe and the U.S. are a much more dependable business partner than Russia. Who would have thought?
Hopefully everything will go wrong for Ruzzia
Pleb gate
Ironically, he will be the one getting grabbed by the pussy
I read the article and was disappointed in the analytics.
In short, for those who have not read: Putin’s plan is to expand Russia’s logistical capabilities to supply raw materials through the Arctic (by sea), Iran and Central Asia (by rail) and the construction of new gas pipelines to Iran and China.
The authors of the article acknowledge that Putin and Russian businessmen have successfully overcome the crisis related to the supply of raw materials and oil from Russia, as well as significantly reduced price discounts related to supplies.
Chinese and Indian companies are successfully replacing of European and American companies in consumer goods, automobiles, and complex machine tools.
Why do the authors believe that Putin’s plan failed?
1. In Russia, there are no supplies from American and European manufacturers of cassette ball bearings for trolleys.
According to the plan, they should be changed annually by 50,000 wagons. Therefore, the authors of the article concluded that all vagons will break down in the future.
This is true, but instead of Amsted Rail and SKF, ball bearings from the same manufacturers made at Chinese joint ventures are successfully supplied to the Russian market. There are no crises with bearings now
And providing information from 2022 that is not valid in 2024 is not professional.
2. The Arctic waterway is starting to work more and more, and it can already be supplied 7 months a year (in the future, in 2030 – already 9 months).
For China, this is a strategic project, since now “unknown pirates” can block the Strait of Molluk for China, as the Houthis blocked the Strait of Aden for cargo to Israel.
3. Stopping the Power of Siberia – 2 gas pipeline. Yes, it was stopped, but the Power of Siberia 1 is being actively developed, where an increase in capacity justifies the construction of a new gas pipeline.
It seems to me that due to the large flow of such low-quality articles, there is a feeling that Russia should collapse the day before yesterday, but this is not happening. And a false base leads to false decisions
You see, him stopping sending gas out of pettiness might have seemed like a good idea at the time, but it was a huge mistake.
Even during the hottest points of the Cold War, during the Missile Crisis, the USSR did not use its resources as a weapon. Becauye they knew that if they do so, every sensible country will realise, that they are not a reliable partner. It will take 50-60 years of non-Putinist leadership for this damaged reputation to be restored, which – if weare optimistic and calculate with Putinism in Russia ending at around 2070, will mean things will be back to normal in about a century.
Probably, more with China than India. China need resources and a market for its finished product that is suffering from demand, India already has thriving domestic economy and its priorities have changed over time.
Both absolutely delightful people to do business with from building boats right down to the minutiae of buying a pencil absolutely no haggling or risk non payment guaranteed
Do India and China know and care though?
What could go wrong is that he’s got no alternatives. China and India can dictate their conditions and there’s very little he can do other than not trade with anyone.
Summary: Vladimir Putin is investing heavily in infrastructure to boost Russia’s economy and trade with Asia and the Middle East, aiming to reduce reliance on the West. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and Northern Sea Route are key projects, but both face significant challenges like poor infrastructure, sanctions, and competition. Despite growing trade with China and India, logistical issues and funding shortfalls may hinder these ambitions. Additionally, Russia’s reliance on these new routes is complicated by geopolitical tensions and the reluctance of private investors.
Full article: archive dot ph/o3nro
Gets deleted when I link it to the main post.
Russia is the tiniest in that group. Being tiny is always a bit risky.
Something about leopards eating something
Well as of right now, Russia is in war economy . And as long as there is a war, it works. However, the consequences on the long run will be terrible.
The loss of trained manpower in every domain except in the MIC isn’t going to do very well.