Even as it humiliates Russia, Ukraine’s line is crumbling in the Donbas. The shock raid inside Kursk has not distracted the Kremlin from advancing.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/08/29/even-as-it-humiliates-russia-ukraines-line-is-crumbling-in-the-donbas
by MaryADraper
19 comments
Bypass the paywall here – [https://archive.ph/wGjWM](https://archive.ph/wGjWM)
At the final negotiations, having Russian territory is going to be a tremendous advantage. Ukraine will be able to swap it for occupied parts of their own territory.
Trading space for time. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s domestic weapons industry is making leaps and bounds towards the capabilities needed to just sever the snakes head in Russia’s rear logistics
They have a fucking clear line to all of Russia, they can drone them to hell trough Kursk. It is NOT about territory!
People are talking like Russia is going to make a breakthrough.
As if Russia could move large numbers of troops and armor great distance.
Like it did in the 3 day special operation with its best soldiers and equipment.
I honestly don’t think Russia really cares about kursk or the surrounding areas. They’ll put up a token defense and claim it’s a problem, but who gives a fuck? They’re not going to conquer all of Russia, they’re not going to reach Moscow. Russia can just keep pressing on in Ukraine
I don’t see it crumbling, I see it just going slow and stacking Russian bodies. If Russia had to keep doing this grind the way they are, they’ll lose over a quarter of their population before they can fully take Ukraine.
I’m literally crying rn!
Then they should push further. Russia doesn’t really care about being stabbed right now, let’s see if they change their tune when Ukraine twists the knife by reaching the KNPP.
Thank you for posting to at least start a conversation about this. I’ve seen way too many circle jerking with how brilliant the Kursk incursion is. It has its merits but wtf is going on in the pokrosk direction.
Yes, Ukraine may lose all of Donetsk but at a horrible attrition rate and limited chance at another serious offensive until a full mobilization in 2025. Meanwhile, Ukraine will still have almost half of Kursk territory @ a fraction of the cost. The losses in Donetsk are frustrating but it’s still winning the long game. It’s a serious debate how long before the Russian economy collapses. Dwindling oil production and a cold winter for its population will be a hurdle for Putin.
I see a real change in tone from Zelensky since the Kursk operation started. It seems like they know they can’t stop the Russian advance inch by inch and they think they have a better way of dealing with it. The fact that he sounds optimistic even though the front is crumbling implies that he knows something we don’t. Or maybe he’s just a good actor…
this is a likely very expected counterattack, they want to redirect the war back where they already have troops. Smart enough play, as you don’t have to move a ton of shit around just to do a new push.
I doubt it’s crumbling, Ukraine didn’t send a large force into Kursk it likely didn’t even effect plans for what is defending in Donbas.
THIS IS NOT A TERRITORIAL WAR.
it is a war of attrition, and Russia is losing.
Does Ukraine really want those bombed out ruble towns back anyway? I know this slow slide is unacceptable, but the total destruction left after Russian occupation seems like a no go back.
It’s not so easy to move troops from Donbas to Kursk, it’s not some strategy video game.
I still think Ukraine should fight Russia and destroy their infrastructure and logistics from inside where it’s less protected. Even if Russia advances a little bit, it’s worth it l.
This will get massive downvotes on this sub, but I think the situation is this- Ukraine has lost the conventional war against Russia. Sorry, I know some people here think a drive to Moscow is just around the corner, but you need to take the blinders off. Its ability to fight and win a large-scale conventional combat war against Russia has past the point of no return. The attrition is too great, the ability to replace losses, both in men and materiel is simply not there.
BUT it doesn’t mean the war is lost. To draw a comparison to the Vietnam War, while Ukraine may not be able to inflict a Dien Bien Phu, that doesn’t mean it is out of the fight. What I think Ukraine could do to fight and win is whereby it has a conventional force akin to the NVA that while it may not be able to challenge and eject Russia on the battlefield, can at least exercise control over large parts of “core territory” (North Vietnam). Enough to deny a large-scale regime-changing offensive From this it could support something akin to a Ukrainian Viet Cong that could just cause all manners of headache in Russian occupied lands while seeing a stream of support from the “core” that in turn would grind Russia over the years. Something a bit more than guerilla warfare, a bit less than conventional warfare.
Just because your army has reached the point where it can’t inflict a sudden decisive victory, doesn’t mean it is over and victory is unattainable. Ultimately Ukraine just has to not completely lose and time is on its side.
Alright, bring on the downvotes.
Ukraine slowly giving up ground to fight on favorable terms while the Russian empire collapses around Putin is not the win pro putinists would want you to believe lol…
The Russian push to Pokrovsk has allowed for a huge saliant to form in the Russian line. Not to mention, Pokrovsk is not alone, to take Pokrovsk, you must also take Myrnohrad. They are pretty much connected. You could drive from one into the other without realizing you changed cities. We are talking about 2 cities combined, that have more buildings and built-up space than Bakhmut, and we know how long and at what cost it took Russia to take that.
Has it not occurred to anyone that Ukraine may be letting this happen? That they are letting Russia form a huge saliant in their lines that well be vulnerable to counter attacks from the north and south? To make a concentrated push into Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad would mean putting more and bigger assets into that saliant, thus increasing their risk of being caught in a counterattack.
We are all armchair generals here, and wtf do we really know about the true situation?