‘Mistakes made’ before tragic sinking of Bayesian yacht – as first findings of probe revealed

34 comments

1. Did they investigate the children that drowned on migrant boats like this.

2. This is very suspicious

3. Italian police have
   charged Amanda Knox

4. This happened 3:45am, everyone were sleeping tight. If windows and doors are not shut, and a Tornado hit the boat, with much a tall heavy mast, it will tip and sink quickly. It is the captain’s responsibility not check the weather the night before and prepare accordingly. It could be the captain being paid to deliberately being unprepared to murder Mike. This would be so hard to prove. It will be a long painful battle again for the Lynch family. Beyond my imagination what the rest of family will go through.

5. strange coincidence, no other boats sank, co defendant in the fraud case killed in car crash, after winning a multi billion case against hewlett packard, one of the worlds biggest corporations, hmmmm

6. Italian company build the boat, not their fault. Costa Concordia Italian top to bottom. Yes it is the fault of the crew. What a bunch.

7. It’s so strange his business partner died a week ago looks like loose ends being tied up

8. So thinking allowed, if I were hammered on a party yacht and a massive waterspout came towards me would I think:-
   a. I really have had too much
   b. It was really funny

9. Foul play

10. 1 in 11.37billion !!

    This is the probability of the 2 deaths of Mike Lynch and Tom Leonard actually being accidents on the timeline since their acquittal in June 2024.

    I'm a statistician, not a conspiracy theorist but here are some stats for you.
    
    3 events occurred within 2 months.

    Event 1: Acquittal
    
    Event 2: Death of healthy defendant 1.
    
    Event 3: Death of healthy defendant 2.

    Event 1 is a certainty (the acquittal happened),
    
    The premise under test here is Event 2 and Event 3 were accidental deaths not in any way connected to self harm or assault.

    Analysis is based on developed world stats (specifically the UK), as developing countries stats differ (higher accidents rate).

    The probability of 2 healthy people dying in separate accidents within 2 months of the certain event number 1 are:
    
    1 in 748,465,928

    The probability that the 2 accidental deaths would occur within 48 hours of each other within these 2 months are:
    
    1 in 11,375,945,121

    To put this in perspective you are 803 times more likely to win the UK lottery than these deaths occurring as they did.

    How this is calculated:
    
    Approx 14,694 accidental (not including assault or self harm) deaths occur in the UK each year.
    
    Hence in any given 2 month period 2449 people fall foul of accidental death among a UK population of 66.97million.
    
    Representing this another way.. 1 in 27,358 people die in an accident every 2 months in the UK.
    
    The acquittal starts the 2 month period clock ticking in June 2024 as we are assessing the chances of these 2 people dying in separate accidents since this recent acquittal.
    
    As the 2 accidents are claimed to be accidents and are totally independent of each other the chances of both accidental deaths within this 2 month timeframe therefore is:
    
    1 in (27358 x 27358) = 1 in 748million.

    Furthermore, the chances of 2 independent accidental deaths occurring within 48 hours of each other are calculated by the chance of the defendant 1 death being within the 2 months and then the chances of defendant 2 death occurring within a 4 day window which stretches 48 hours before to 48 hours after the time and date of defendant 1.
    
    Again defendant 1 death has a probability of 1 in 27,538
    
    But now defendant 2 death being within 48 hours of defendant 1 death is 1 in 413,070

    Hence, the chances are 1 in (413,070×27538) = 1 in 11,375,945,121

11. Something smells fishy here.

12. I thought it was a Tornado, no ?
    Lightning, no ?
    Bad weather, no ?
    Ex L Mast, no ?
    Bad staff, no ?
    Mo sad ?

13. Rich people on a boat get hit by a freak storm … big enquiry because they are rich

14. I heard someone onboard had been making disparaging comments about the new two tier Labour government in the uk.

15. Meanwhile in Germany…

16. The design of this yacht is poor. The CEO of the yacht builder quickly and immediately said the sinking was a mistake of yacht crew as he was scared that we discover that his yacht design was crap!!! All these yacht builder are focusing the design of their yacht for comfort and luxury but fail to make vessel safe on hard seas!!!! This yacht was nearly suitable to sail on lake Leman in Switzerland ….. such yachts are crap!!!

17. Or all the millionaires and billionaires are going underground, faking their deaths because they see the signs of war and dont want their assets taken from them

18. The rich chose to go out in their expensive yacht despite the weather warnings! Can't blame the captain for doing what he was made to do.

19. Get a grip. Not everything is a conspiracy. Would anyone even give a hoot if it wasn’t a millionaire tycoon… no.

20. They once said the Titanic was unsinkable too..!! It’s clear to see the authorities are pushing to have the captain and crew face manslaughter charges through negligence! Although we know the yacht was compromised by the storm they may have been faults with the bilge keels which stabilises the pitch and roll of the vessel. It only takes one hatch to be unsealed and left open amongst the panic whilst the crew made their exit to abandon the yacht; very plausible in order for the water to ingress as quickly as it did, especially when we’ve had no reports of damage done to the mast which could definitely have devastating consequences in jeopardising the integrity of the hull. Maybe a clearer picture will come about as testimonies and statements are shared and the reports are released on the actual condition of the yacht on discovery.
    Due to the wealth of these passengers, the crew will most definitely be scrutinised and made to look at fault for the authorities to put an end to their enquiries on this case and keep the international public relations happy.

    Its also important to be aware that while ‘The Sun’ is one of the best selling newspapers in England, the publication is well known for being caught up in controversy for falsifying news, to reference them would not be seen as an accepted valid source.. The ONLY credible News paper produced in the UK is ‘The Guardian’ which takes pride in their ability to report on factual based information and not misinformed gossip. Unfortunately the majority of other news outlets operating in the UK are propaganda driven so definitely use your own initiative.

21. Divers reported that the keel was in the retracted position. If the keel had been lowered (as it should have been) the keel would have offset the weight above the waterline and then the yacht would not have listed so far and so may not have taken in water.

22. What about the life jackets?

23. Are we retarded ???? Of course it was not an acident ! His partner in the lawsuit in USA they finally won , was also killed 2 weeks ago riding his bicycle in the UK !
    Coincidence ???? No way

24. who cares, people being killed in uk every day and they get no coverage, what a crap news platform

25. I read a comment on here about the lady who was sleeping on the deck with her young baby. I would not think that it was a sensible thing to do!!

26. Who are they going to charge? The storm?

27. Diver's Video of the yacht resting on the sea bed is not offered?

28. And No Charges for the killers?

29. What have we learned? Even fraudulent money does not protect against death.

30. Isn't the captain a nzelander ? So what else could you expect ?! 😁 Down there they can only sail the America's Cup and play their 🏉, out of these 2 things all the all black poms can do is the worst crap or a holy mess !!

31. Bad weather was undoubtedly predicted, what were the guests doing in their cabins with no chance to escape, why did all of the crew get out? It smells like gross negligence by the captain/ responsible crew members and I’m confident that this will be proven fairly soon. It’s been no doubt an avoidable tragedy

32. 00:59 le barche sono immobili, anche quella con il tendalino aperto, il mare sembra calmo, e l'albero maestro del Baesyan non si muove un granché d'altronde è una nave di 500 tonnellate con una lunghezza di 56 metri con in pescaggio di 10 metri. Restiamo in attesadi cosa dirà la magistratura

33. Everybody speaking nonsense 😂😂 clearly the captain is a idiot…Why leave the boat when u can remove the anchor and other procedures in case of bad weather 😂😂😂 the Dutch boat (smaller) next to it had a decent captain that acted normally 😂😂😂 abahahahah….the Bayesian captain is clearly stupid and dint do nothing just escaped…the anchor wasn’t retracted and all the procedures skipped…simple: it’s homicide voluntary or not…y’all speaking about conspiracies like it’s Hollywood 🤦🏻‍♂️ come to Italy I explain to you how to use a boat dummies

34. Just for the record, the boat probably would have sunk regardless of whether the crew was there or not. If ventilation ports for super boat is a defining factor for sinkage, then let's maybe not call it a super boat. So far I assume captain did: 1) retract keel as it is documented in procedures – CHECK, 2) Close tender hatch – CHECK, 3) Put anchor so that boat faces a wind direction – CHECK, 4) Direct emergency operation on the top deck – CHECK. 5) Raise a siren alarm – ???, 6) Rescue lower deck passengers – ???. If it sank in 60 seconds, there was nothing that could be done and note that Lynch Wife was among survivors, so she probably knew and saw the situation as it unfolds. There is high probability Italian's are anxious about possible fact of boat failure or poor boat safety design, so scapegoating a captain is the only strategy to shift public attention away from the boat itself.