Trump’s Iowa lead shrinks significantly as Kamala Harris replaces Biden, Iowa Poll shows
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/09/15/iowa-poll-donald-trump-iowa-lead-shrinks-as-kamala-harris-replaces-joe-biden/75180245007/
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>A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows that Trump leads Vice President Harris 47% to 43% among likely Iowa voters — a far slimmer margin than the 18-point lead the former Republican president enjoyed over Democratic President Biden in late spring.
Well that’s interesting. Iowa is potentially now a fucking swing state? Fuck me, never realized that before.
It seems like a lot of states that are traditionally not swing states are now swing states.
Great. Harris shouldn’t spend one second there between now and the election. Swing states. Swing states. Swing states
Iowa becoming a swing state in this election doesn’t surprise me. A very strict abortion law and the addition Walz has helped Harris in Iowa. Walz’s former congressional district in southern MN is very similar to Northern Iowa—and the rest of Iowa as well actually. Of course, it also helps that Harris is an amazing candidate. I’m not sure if they should spend a lot of resources in Iowa. But they already are spending some resources, because the Omaha congressional district reaches some in western Iowa.
Can confirm! I’m pushing 60 and Harris has my money and will get my vote!
This poll is important for what it says about the race and can transcend to other midwestern states. My takeaways:
1) Poll was done September 8-11. Mostly before the debate. Might be slightly worse for Trump if done today
2) RFK is getting 6%. Seems to be hurting Trump slightly more
3) enthusiasm favors Harris slightly (80% vs 74%)
4) Shocking Trump is viewed favorably by 48% vs low 40’s for Harris (fully post debate would be interesting to see)
5) Gender gap is high and young women are more energized than before
The favorability ratings are worrying. Everything else looks as expected or trending better for Harris
The Loomer affair will take some votes from the christofascist as they tolerate indiscretions but publically flaunted may embarrass them.
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Almost within the 3.8% margin of error. And it’s worth noting that both candidates have higher unfavorability than favorability in the poll. But regardless of polls, it’s going to be turnout that matters.
Party of law and order has a 34-time convicted felon as their candidate
Party of family values has a serial cheater, and man currently cheating on his 3rd wife as a candidate
Party of personal responsibility has a man who bankrupted a casino and can not run a charity as their candidate
Party who supports the military has a draft dodger and a mam who called our military “sucker’s and losers”
As an Iowan…this state sucks. Governor Reynolds is an unmitigated disaster. My home town in NE Iowa has more than one home displaying confederate flags. It’s embarrassing.
I’m just here because I like all the attention on Iowa. It seems weird this late into the race.
We need that effect in NC. Cut into these red counties. Trump shrinkage.
This neighbor to the South (KC) is very jealous.
I hope Biden sees everything that’s happening as encouragement that he did the right thing.
As tantalizing as it may be, I would temper any expectation that Iowa would go blue in 2024. The state has been in a steadily regressive mode for many years now in its race to the bottom. Its political leaders, starting with Grassley and Reynolds, are anything but. Kansas was in a similar mode when Sam Brownback was governor but voters, eventually, were fed up to the point of saying “enough”. I doubt Iowans have the political spine to do something similar.
Caitlin Clark effect/s
Damn. Never thought Iowa could be in play. If it tightens, Trump will need to spend resources to a state they thought they had in the bag which will help Harris in the swing states.
If Harris wins Iowa, she would only need Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona off the battleground map to be at 271. (She wouldn’t need GA, NC, NV or PA)
C’mon Iowa! We can turn turn Iowa blue again! Let’s do this! Save democracy!
Iowa native no longer there. Yea…nah. It ain’t happening lol
Cautiously optimistic. Careful she does not try to “expand the map” too much, a la Hillary, and lose close states that were supposed to be “in the bag”.
Is this a reflection of how well Harris is doing or just how bad Biden was?
My wish, after the election, the DNC begins to set foot in Texas, Florida, and, yes, Iowa. Stop neglecting them and beleive they are winnable. They are winnable in the future, especially after the Republican party will be in shambles if Trump loses. DNC needs to stop focusing on safe regions only and branch out where there is some indication Republicans are losing voters. Republicans did the same thing years ago and it is why they are now in control of the South.
Obama won Iowa. Harris can too.
“A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows that Trump leads Vice President Harris 47% to 43% among likely Iowa voters — a far slimmer margin than the 18-point lead the former Republican president enjoyed over Democratic President Biden in late spring.”
That’s quite a swing.
Iowa and Ohio tend to be very similar, politically, so hopefully, this is a good sign for my home state, too.
These are the polls that matter
Trump admitted he lost the election in his interview with Lex Fridman. MAGA leader Nick Fuentes and those who faced consequences from Trump’s instigation of the insurrection are passed!
Trump continues to be pro-Putin and in the debate after being asked twice still refused to say Putin was wrong for invading the Ukraine.
FBI and military leaders have said Trump is a risk to National security. There’s a reason Dick Cheney and over 200 Republican leaders are endorsing Harris!!
Trump admitted he lost the election in his interview with Lex Fridman. MAGA leader Nick Fuentes and those who faced consequences from Trump’s instigation of the insurrection are pissed!
Trump continues to be pro-Putin and in the debate after being asked twice still refused to say Putin was wrong for invading the Ukraine.
FBI and military leaders have said Trump is a risk to National security. There’s a reason Dick Cheney and over 200 Republican leaders are endorsing Harris!!
I hope she wins the election and that it’s a decisive victory.
The agricultural sector was truly fucked by Trump’s tariffs, but they are still all in.
These polls are all pretty weird. Harris is making headway in most states. Even solidly red states. But swing states and national polls are hardly budging anymore. Some even showing Trump leading. So something seems broken somewhere in these models.
IOWA what is wrong with you? You gave us one of the greatest Heavy Metal bands of all time and yet you’re voting for an ass hat?
This is great. Looking forward to my vote actually making a difference.
Iowa was a swing state before and we can make it one again. Curious to see how Harris is performing in Ohio as well
This is a good illustration of how we largely have no data points at all on how the switch is playing in about 45 states.
Edit; also worth noting this poll was conducted Sept 8-11… so prob less than 1 full day of polling post debate.