New poll shows Harris surging in state thought to be safe for Trump

https://www.fox5dc.com/news/iowa-trump-harris-new-poll-sept-2024

46 comments

  1. The state is Iowa.

    I hate headline editors like this.

  4. Sorry for the clickbait headline, but the state is Iowa:

    > Harris has narrowed Trump’s lead to four points, trailing the former president 47% to 43% in Iowa, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released Sunday.

    > The poll represents a shocking reversal from where Trump stood in the state in spring, when the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed Trump leading President Biden by 18 points in Iowa, 50% to 32%.

    Trump won the state by about 10 points in both 2016 and 2020, so a 4-point lead would be a significant underperformance for him, and probably indicates him struggling in the Midwest.

    However, the headline could just as well refer to Alaska, as [a poll taken there recently](https://x.com/The_Real_ASR/status/1834657704708915235) showed Trump leading by only 5 points in a what is normally considered a safe Republican state.

  5. These states like Iowa and Alaska are *probably* not going to flip, but they’re very similar to swing states that could.

    Narrowing gaps in historically red states like these can only be a good sign.

  6. I’m always slightly suspicious of integers in general, but 4% seems to be within most people’s definition of an error margin in this context.

  8. I cannot believe that this hyper-violent shit show surrounding Trump and Vance helps them get elected. The two of them are more interested in getting Haitians killed in Ohio than doing any kind of actual campaigning. Trump’s violent chickens keep coming home to roost with his former followers stalking him and trying to assassinate him. The Republican rhetoric gets more and more violent and insane. They’d rather have a Civil War than a Presidential election.

  9. All of these “bonus swing states” help by forcing Trump to focus time and money in places where previously he didn’t need to. I can’t help but feel encouraged by these developments, especially with Harris’ relative surpluses of energy and funds.

  10. You mean the sane and stable mental state? That was never a safe place for Trump.

  11. Even if Harris doesn’t win in these states. They are still requiring the GOP to divert money to keep them red.

  12. I’m from Iowa and I cannot tell you how significant this is. I’m actually seeing more and more Harris/Walz signs in yards and way less Trump. There’s definitely a positive buzz and energy from the Democratic side right now whipping through Iowa and I hope if we can’t vote Trump out from this state, at least we can get some of the down races turned blue!

  13. I want to throw this out as a hypothetical.

    How many women, who currently live in a house that would be considered “Pro Trump” are going to silently vote for Harris? I think that number is going to be quite a bit larger than the poles currently reflect.

  14. >The poll represents a shocking reversal from where Trump stood in the state in spring, when the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed Trump leading President Biden by 18 points in Iowa, 50% to 32%.

    18 points down to 4 in less than slightly less than 8 weeks. Now, 7 weeks out. If nothing else, Trump is going to have to spend money defending Iowa.

  15. Obama won Iowa twice if I recall correctly so while there’s definitely a sizable population of low information voters it is still possible to do well there

  16. As an Iowan I’m just selfishly happy about this because maybe this means we’ll get at least Walz dropping by for like an hour some weekday morning. The congressional races in Iowa are looking promising this year too so it’d be a good chance to boost them too.

  17. Harris is sending money downballot. Don Old is not.

    Money is always the key. 

  19. Right now, 538 is calling Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina ties. Here’s the list of the next states (likelihood of Harris winning first)

    Florida

    Texas

    Ohio

    Iowa

    Alaska

    South Carolina

  20. Excellent, throw it on the pile.

    I got lambasted a couple of weeks ago by a few ‘concerned Redditors’ when polls showed Harris shortening the gap in Texas. It would be amazing if she can get one of these ‘unexpected’ states as the icing on the cake.

    As I pointed out last time though, the real benefit is in the money. I doubt anyone is travelling to Alaska to campaign, but if the gap in these red states gets to less than 4%, Trump is going to have to spend some money and at least send some surrogates into the fray to try to stop the bleeding. He cannot afford to lose any of them. And that just means less money for the traditional battle ground states.

  21. Tim Miller of the Bulwark had an interesting short video about why the Iowa poll might be spelling real trouble for Trump.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkAsVMT0QSs

    It’s not that Trump’s gonna lose the state, but that Iowa is demographically similar to parts of battleground states that were historically strongly Trump areas and you have to wonder if the votes are shifting there too.

  23. Even for the GOP to have to spend other-intended funds here would be a win

  25. Kamala is going to cut all the Trump leads in red states then lose PA and the election and I’m going to scream.

  26. People don’t want another 4 years of bat shit crazy from a person who clearly is skipping mentally.

  29. As an Iowan (no longer a resident), this shocks me. I hope she flips it blue again.

  30. I hope she starts working Iowa and Ohio a bit more

  31. That poll is a fluke until we have multiple showing her ahead by more than the margin of error. Don’t chase needless pipe dreams.

  32. As an Iowan (living in MO), I’m happy to see this!!

  33. Sounds good, but they did reelect Joni Ernst for some dumb reason. Would love to see 1 or 2 solid red states flip.

  34. Do a floridia strategy. Say 5 mil to lay the ground work for 2028.

  35. The most likely to flip are: Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Florida, Maine’s 2nd congressional district

    But I doubt any of them will.

    Still, it’s good to force Trump’s campaign team to spend money on them. That’s money not being spent in *actual swing states*.

  37. Des Moines register and Seltzer (not the drink) are the gold standard for Iowa polling.

  38. Iowa is an interesting state. They were one of the first states to legalize marriage equality, but are also one of the few states that created an abortion ban.

  39. Trump is promising no taxes on Casey’s Rewards points. He’s getting desperate

  41. Texas had less than a 1% chance of flipping last time.

  42. Please vote and encourage others to vote. We can’t get complacent

  44. Remember that the only polls that matter are the ones that have ballot boxes at them. Register and check your registration at vote.gov Vote on Roevember 5th

  45. I don’t think Iowa is in play but the fact it’s close and is a largely white state without any major cities should be a good sign overall for the state of the race.

  46. Someone help me understand how the race is so close in battleground states yet Harris is competing in some red states. Makes no sense to me

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