Ukraine’s Ammo Depot strikes – How Complacency (and drones) Destroyed Russian Bases

Ammunition availability can make all the difference in a war, but only if it makes it to the troops on the front, rather than being destroyed in storage.

Over the course of several days, Ukraine recently succeeded in striking two Russian GRAU arsenals deep in Russian territory and a separate depot and storage facility, causing massive destruction and destroying thousands or tens of thousands of tonnes of Russian munitions.

In this episode I ask how long-range drones were able to destroy what were meant to be, in many cases, hardened targets, why the bases may have suffered the damage they did, and what this may all mean for the war going forward.

Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU

Special plug for the Battletech fans in the audience – Tex Talks Battletech : The Turning Point at Twycross

Reading and Sourcing:
The War Zone & Maxar Technologies – before and after images of target sites
https://www.twz.com/news-features/satellite-images-show-massive-devastation-at-russian-ammo-storage-sites-struck-by-ukrainian-drones

Credit to @HartreeFock for his commentary on the construction phase of the Toropets magazines
https://x.com/HartreeFock/status/1837087448448352289

Credit to @Tatarrigami_UA and Frontintelligence insight for their work on Tikhoretsk
https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1837359410479268180

Featured TASS reports
Reporting on Toropets
https://tass.com/politics/1844703

Claims of attacks on Ukrainian depots
https://tass.com/politics/1804883

Defence Express – identifying GRAU arsenals within 750km of Ukraine
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/assessment_of_other_key_grau_arsenals_as_big_as_in_toropets_within_ukraines_reach-11911.html

Estonian 30,000 tonnes at Toropets figure
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-loses-2-3-months-worth-of-ammunition-1726996045.html

https://theconversation.com/ukraine-drone-strikes-demonstrate-its-continuing-intent-to-fight-the-long-war-against-russia-239438

Additional featured imagery and coverage
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/satellite-imagery-shows-that-russian-depots-near-tikhoretsk-and-oktyabrske-have-been-almost-completely-destroyed/

Featured reporting

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/18/ukrainian-drone-attack-sparks-massive-blast-at-arsenal-in-russia

https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-images-show-damage-russian-arsenal-blew-up-earthquake-strength-2024-9

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-himars-help-destroy-20-depots-of-russian-artillery-ammo-says-ukraine-2022-7

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/16/europe/china-made-drone-downed-eastern-ukraine-hnk-intl/index.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/24/ukraine-weapons-limits-biden-permission-atacms/

Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

Any content relating to the conduct and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or in relation to that person or character.

Timestamps:

00:00 — Opening Words
01:40 — What Am I Talking About?
02:06 — Russian Ammo Logistics & Storage
06:56 — Depots Of Interest
10:10 — The Attacks
16:10 — Anatomy Of An Explosion
29:14 — The Ukrainian Capitalisation
34:31 — Damage Assessment
42:21 — Implications
52:36 — Channel Update

28 comments

  1. It took a while for the (literal and figurative) smoke to clear but I think we can now cover this development and both how it may have happened and how (and if) it matters.

    One quick note/corrections.

    At one point in this video I say that if a Western system like SCALP was involved in strikes on Russian targets without permission from the suppliers, there'd be serious risks for Ukraine. Strictly speaking, given the ranges to some of the GRAU arsenals discussed, JASSM-ER would probably be a better example as Storm Shadow only has the range to hit some of the discussed bases from Ukraine.

    As noted in the channel update, I may face some difficulties getting a video ready for next week on schedule, but I will do my best and keep you updated.

  2. I'm not sure it's complacency so much as dilemmas.

    Does Russia protect the military bases or the ammo dumps or the Kerch bridge?

    Choose two.

    Well I guess that's a trilemma. 😊

  7. No serious injuries Transl: Everyone was vaporized. When the ambulances got there no one was left.
    Fires started by falling Drone debris Transl: Drones hit explosives sending flaming debris into the air where it became falling debris caused by drones.
    Bunkers with holes but no obvious explosion could have held small arms ammo. There already reports of Russians complaining they are underequipped and undersupplied.
    Some of the exploded ordnance could have been AA ammo. This would degrade defenses for a bit.

  10. Many thanks Perun, another gripping and witty presentation. The 'remodelling' puns at the beginning were particularly smile-worthy.

  16. For a while I was hopeful that these strikes were a result of the US secretly okaying Ukraine to use missiles in Russian territory, and that more similar strikes would soon follow.

    But that seems unlikely.

  19. Thanks Perun, such an important moment in this conflict. We have popular politicians in the US with very large megaphones broadcasting "Ukraine is in terrible shape, they can't win this war, the sooner they stop fighting the better for everyone.". And we have this, which is simply brilliant on so many levels. Demonstrating once again, given the right resources Ukraine can do an absolutely brilliant job of defending themselves, by severely damaging Russia's ability to wage war, and they seem to be doing it with domestically developed technology. If I were king for a day, I would set up and heavily funding partnerships between Ukraine and western systems builders to absolutely turbocharge Ukraine's weapons developments and production rates.

    Maybe the US can't sign-off on deep strikes into Russia with US made weapons due to the sensitive elections coming up, but I don't see anything that says they can't turbocharge Ukraine's domestic weapons industry to great effect. That would probably not be a 'game changer', but it could have a serious impact on Russia's ability to wage war. Russia will only seek peace when they are convinced that they will be defeated in battle.

  22. So we'll have to wait until next week for your exhaustive two hour breakdown on the effectiveness of the Chechen warlords' Cybertruck technicals?

  24. Just as an aside, the standard shipping containers on the train seemed to provide better survive-ability than most of the structures on the same base.

  26. Drones have turned "expected threat" into a terrifying monster. If I'm a terrorist, the opportunity of a mixed use military / civilian airbase surrounded by an urban sprawl?

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