Can We Reach Peak Emissions This Year, Or Is 1.5°C Out the Window?

12 comments

1. 1.5C has been long out the window

2. Sorry I left the window open and 1.5C escaped. My cat came back though.

   In all seriousness we are not going to be a peak emissions this year with two major wars, the growth of AI driving data center development. We are not moving fast enough for green energy to offset that growth so you are seeing more fossil fuel as well. Like Musk and his natural gas generators to power X.ai.

3. We’ve definitely passed emissions for a 1.5 C rise. The battle now is to not go over 2 C.

4. We have been at 1.6c over a year now. So yes. 1.5 is out and I seriously doubt the planet is going to cool in any meaningful way.

   [https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01919-7](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01919-7)

   [https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-07-08/earth-surpasses-1-5-c-of-warming-for-12-consecutive-months](https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-07-08/earth-surpasses-1-5-c-of-warming-for-12-consecutive-months)

5. The two are totally unrelated.
   Peak emissions has zero to do with whether 400 btns of carbon emissions are in the pipeline. 400 more Guarantees 2plus

6. buddy, that waved goodbye a while back

7. Six degrees is coming.

8. I honestly think we’ll reach 2.5

9. Peak isn’t that important if the post peak decline is both slow and shallow. At this point, that is what the future looks like largely because the global economy is growing fast enough to absorb a lot of the increase in renewables. Simple example: If you reduce carbon intensity by 50%, while doubling the economy, total emissions remain constant.

   The slow decline means that CO2/methane levels will continue to rise at about the current rate, unless melting permafrost and warming oceans decide to vomit a whole lot more GHGs into the air, in which case rate of CO2(e) (more on that below) rise will increase.

   ALSO: Remember when the big fear was that when we hit 560 PPM of CO2, the Earth would warm to 2C. That was before the big shift to natural gas. At the moment, while CO2 is only at 425, when you factor in the other GHGs, we are at 523 PPM in CO2(e) = CO2 equivalence. At current course and speed, we will reach 560 in CO2(e) by the mid 30s.

10. I wonder if wars are carbon negative. Cuz the west keeps financing them like it will solve all problems.

11. Already exceeded: [World’s first year-long breach of key 1.5C warming limit
    ](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68110310)

12. 1.5 degrees is DOA. As is much of the natural world we depend on.