Trump Plummets in Election Betting Odds After ShockPoll Shows Him Losing Iowa to Harris

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-plummets-in-election-betting-odds-after-shock-poll-shows-him-losing-iowa-to-harris/

25 comments

  1. Bookmakers for an election is at best a stunt and at worst incredibly harmful, the more we talk about this garbage the more influence we give to a network that exists to make money and can be manipulated heavily by bad actors

  3. Where’s the guy who was certain that the betting odds from earlier this week were going to be an accurate predictor for the outcome of the election. He’s got some explaining to do.

  4. “I hear these odds actually mean something as people are putting money on the line!”

    Right Trumpers? This was the talking point?

  5. @NateSilver538 on X:

    >It is incredibly gutsy to release this poll. It won’t put Harris ahead in our forecast because there was also another Iowa poll out today that was good for Trump. But wouldn’t want to play poker against Ann Selzer.

    One of Selzer’s findings was that voters over 65 were voting for Harris, with 65+ women voting for Harris at a 2 to 1 margin. Trump and Vance have spent a large part of their campaign denigrating women, and women are pissed.

    ETA: Corrected source to show this is a Twitter post.

  6. >“It is incredibly gutsy to release this poll,” said Nate Silver, the statistician and elections data guru, in a tweet. “It won’t put Harris ahead in our forecast because there was also another Iowa poll out today that was good for Trump. But wouldn’t want to play poker against Ann Selzer.”

    “It is incredibly gutsy” tells you everything you need to know about the intellectual integrity expectations in this industry. This is supposed to be impartial statistics, not something biased by a political narrative feedback loop.

    I’m even more inclined to trust Ann after reading this.

  7. This was the plan all along, flood the market with R leaning polls, let the idiot MAGA cultists bet millions on Trump and then short the Harris option close to the election.

  8. That dude that bet the majority of his money 30 million dollars on Trump isn’t going to be very happy.

  9. I’m sure it’s happening but the right was so happy and so quick about using polymarket – a website that *American’s can’t legally bet using – as proof that he was about to win, now I’m sure they’re about to say it’s shit and no one should use it to judge the election.

    Edit: Americans not American’s. thank you ChineseFoodRocks.

  10. Gullible MAGA have now, after all this, been sucked in by bookmakers who never lose.

  11. Is it not possible that what’s actually happening is that bet speculators have been betting on Trump to pump up his odds, so that now they can sell their bets at a good price, and bet on Harris for cheap?

  13. The problem with betting markets is they don’t give an accurate representation of the voting public. They skew towards a male demographic of younger age. They are not reliable

  14. Joey Mannerino posted this on Twitter today:

    *”Kamala Harris is not winning Iowa.

    I’m so certain of it I’ll castrate myself on camera if it happens.

    These people are just full of absolute sh*t in the final days of this election.” *

    I hope it happens, if only for this reason.

  15. I don’t usually gamble, but I’ve had a small amount of money floating around a Robinhood account. I put $30 on Harris for an $80 pay out when you could get a buck payout for a $0.38 bet. I figure if she loses, the $30 bucks won’t really matter to me, and if she wins then over confident Trump Supporters can buy me a nice bottle of champaign.

  16. If this ends up being a blowout for Kamala like it looks like there’s a chance to be (if we all vote), then I hope this brings an end to all this polling bullshit.

  17. Here are some topics on which Donald Trump has claimed or implied that he knows more than others:

       •   Science: Claimed to know more than scientists.
       •   ISIS: Claimed to know more about ISIS than the generals.
       •   Military: Said he knows more about the military than military leaders.
       •   The Economy: Stated he understands the economy better than economists.
       •   Trade: Said he knows more about trade than anybody.
       •   Healthcare: Claimed he knows more about healthcare than anyone else.
       •   Climate Change: Implied he knows more about climate science than scientists do.
       •   Technology: Stated he knows more about technology than anyone.
       •   Taxes: Claimed he understands taxes better than the IRS.
       •   Infrastructure: Said he knows more about infrastructure than infrastructure experts.
       •   Construction: Claimed to know more about construction than construction workers.
       •   Social Media: Said he understands social media better than anyone else.
       •   Polls: Claimed he knows more about polls than pollsters.
       •   Campaign Finance: Stated he knows more about campaign finance than anyone.
       •   COVID-19: Claimed to understand COVID-19 better than doctors.
       •   Law Enforcement: Implied he knows more about law enforcement than law enforcement officials.
       •   Banking: Claimed to know more about banks than anyone.
       •   Renewable Energy: Said he understands renewable energy better than energy experts.
       •   China: Claimed to know more about China than anyone else.
       •   Immigration: Stated he knows more about immigration than anyone, including experts.

    Maybe people just don’t like know it alls

  19. It’s almost like betting markets are fickle and completely detached from reality…

  21. Ignore the bets. Ignore the polls. Vote like Kamala is on track to lose. We don’t want a repeat of 2016. Every. Single. Vote. Counts.

    Go vote, and bring friends with you. Talk to your friends and family about going to vote. Be annoying. F it!!! Do it for your country.

  22. My wife’s other theory on this is “Iowa understands tariffs. They were burned by the soybean tariffs during the Trump administration, and so the recent talk about tariffs have reminded them about how bad Trump actually is for them”

    Does anyone know if this might be a large part of what’s going on?

  23. Y’all worried about another 2016, but personally I’m worried about another 2000.

  25. I saw a “ trump train” in my Appalachian town. 12 vehicles long. Way more than 12 people booing and flicking them off. It may be the end if Iowa and my small town have abandoned cult 45

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