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Tropical Storm Rafael has formed in the Caribbean. Rafael is forecast to intensify into a hurricane on Tuesday before entering the Gulf of Mexico where conditions will trend less conducive for the system to hold that intensity later this week.
Here’s the latest status on this system: Tropical Storm Rafael is centered 150 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and is tracking north-northwest at 9 mph.
Hurricane Hunters found that an eyewall appeared to be developing within the storm Monday afternoon, and the deep convection is continuing to develop.
Enhanced Satellite
(The icon shows the current center of the system.)
Here’s the latest intensify and track forecast: Rafael is currently expected to reach hurricane strength Tuesday afternoon, and could strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane before it reaches Cuba on Wednesday.
Thereafter, Rafael is predicted to undergo some level of weakening in the Gulf of Mexico because it will likely encounter increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds, some dry air and cooling Gulf of Mexico waters.
What we know about future Rafael’s possible impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast: A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. But overall, the forecast remains highly uncertain.
“The system is forecast to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-range forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast,” the NHC said Monday.
That said, Rafael could at least help enhance rainfall in Florida and other parts of the Southeast U.S. beginning Wednesday by pulling tropical moisture northward. It’s too early to nail down any other specifics.
What to expect in the Caribbean from this system: Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding and mudslides from southern Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and parts of western and southern Cuba early this week.
A hurricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands. This means that hurricane conditions (74-mph winds or higher) are expected. Hurricane force winds could arrive in the Cayman Islands as soon as Tuesday afternoon.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for Jamaica, which means that tropical storm conditions (39- to 73-mph winds) are expected. These conditions are forecast to arrive in Jamaica this evening.
A hurricane watch is also now in effect for western Cuba. That means hurricane conditions are possible there in the next 48 hours. Tropical storms watches extend east from there into central Cuba.
Some storm surge flooding is possible in Jamaica, Cayman Islands and western Cuba, as well.
Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist with weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.