China’s strategic concerns amid Bangladesh’s political turmoil

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1. SS: Antara Ghosal Singh, a Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation in India, outlines China’s strategic concerns amid the political turmoil in Bangladesh, driven by fears of the country aligning with the US, potentially at the expense of China’s economic and geopolitical interests. She highlights Beijing’s observation of US courtesies to Bangladesh’s interim leadership and significant aid pledges, fueling speculation about Western influence reshaping Bangladesh’s political and economic landscape. Singh notes concerns about disruptions to China’s Belt and Road Initiative projects, broader regional trade, and the potential for increased US military presence to challenge China’s energy security and control over the Strait of Malacca, impacting its Indian Ocean strategy, and potentially also increasing US ability to intervene in complex Myanmar politics to negatively impact Chinese interests there. The author further points out that Chinese scholars believe such a shift could affect the balance of power at the Sino-Indian border, particularly near the sensitive Siliguri Corridor, also known as the “chicken’s neck”. Despite China’s traditional view of India as a regional rival, Singh indicates that some Chinese analysts see India as a key variable capable of countering US influence, hinting at possible tacit cooperation between China and India regarding the Bay of Bengal to manage regional power dynamics.

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