Nevada analyst says Kamala Harris wins swing state in final prediction

https://www.newsweek.com/nevada-2024-election-kamala-harris-donald-trump-forecast-predictions-1980117

37 comments

  1. Let’s hope Ralston predicted correctly! Vote and make this a reality!

    From Iowa to Nevada, from sea to shining sea! 🇺🇸

  2. Jon Ralston is probably *the* most knowledgeable person regarding Nevada politics, he’s accurately predicted the statewide winners in Nevada for at least the past three elections. However, he’s predicting that it will be an extremely close election, with Harris pulling through by only 0.3%. His final prediction is Harris: 48.5%, Trump: 48.2%, others and None of These Candidates: 3.3%. But still, a close win is a win, and I’ll take a close victory for Harris in Nevada. Let’s all go vote and make it happen.

  5. I’ve been watching non-stop political commentary, and her rallies are always jam-packed with cheering followers. His rallies are pathetic, with half-full bleachers and people walking out. So….I’m hopeful.

  7. I hope Ralston is as careful and as reputable as Selzer in Iowa. A third of a percentage point is nano thin, but it’s pointing in the right direction. Who are the candidates who are getting the other 3 1/2% of the votes?

  8. Oof, I feel like I’m starting to consume an unhealthy amount of hopium today….

  10. Ralston is the the guy on NV elections so if he says Harris by a razor-thin margin I’ll believe him. I’m hoping hes overestimating Sam Brown though. Guy is a carpet bagging toad who became a Trump dickrider when it was clear Rosen locked down the moderates. He deserves to get blown the fuck out.

  11. I find it funny the predictions are heavily based on voter registrations. It is heavily likely that a good percent of GOP voters are going for Harris.

    I’ll say it will be much, much wider than 48 to 48.

  12. *If it’s what you say I love it, especially early in November!*

  13. There’s going to be a lot of states that are going to have a giant swing in Harris’ direction. Red states that were surefire Trump are going to be much closer than what we think.

  14. I’m in Nevada and have been following Ralston for years. He definitely has the pulse on Nevada politics, which can be very tricky at times.

    While his predictions are not 100% accurate, he has only been off a few times. In 2022, he accurately predicted every single statewide race, and the only prediction he was off on was a Congressional race in Vegas that he said the Republican would win. They ended up losing.

    This race will undoubtedly be close, but if I were a betting man (and I’m not) I would comfortably use Ralstons predictions to determine who I’d wager for.

  16. Don’t get complacent. Vote tomorrow if you haven’t voted early. Don’t let long lines deter you.

    Vote for the future of the democracy. Vote blue down the ballot. 

  19. She hasn’t won anything yet.  You have to vote!  

    I’m glad the news is encouraging, but it ultimately means nothing unless people get out and vote.  Even if there’s long lines or bad weather, or you have to go after a 12 hour shift (been there), please vote!  It’s important!  There are women dying in Texas because of the anti-choice groups who are backing Trump.  

  20. I’m not even American but i’ll be so disappointed for you guys if Harris doesn’t win. Best of luck tomorrow and this coming week.

  21. I’m very suspicious of all of this good news lately. It sucks that it won’t be over if she wins tomorrow because Trump is going to be on his bullshit immediately 

  22. The fact that the race is this close makes me sick to my stomach

  23. If Hillary being as unpopular as she was can win Nevada, it’s not shocking to think that Kamala wouldn’t either.

  24. It’s basically even and within the margin of error. *vote*

  26. NY’er here that has been in Reno for 8 years now. In 2020 it was really mixed of both right and left. This time, I have seen, and come across way more Trumpers. In the gym I go to, all the older white guys are all Trumpers and talk about politics in the locker room. Ppl at work too are Trumpers more than liberals. Something has shifted within the last 4 years here.

  27. With the extraordinary amount of distortions and misinformation playing on local Nevada stations regarding immigration and crime, this would be somewhat surprising but extremely welcome. I will be happy to see Nevadans informing themselves and tuning out the artifice. Hopefully there is a better vetting process for campaign ads moving forward.

  28. The amount of Harris signs versus Trump is astonishing. It’s like people don’t want their neighbors to know they support a rapist.

  29. Vote! Harris will make this country better and protect us

  30. My last-minute election prediction is that the Selzer Iowa poll was our preview of the fact that all of the other polls are herding like mad and this election isn’t actually close at all. It’ll probably be an absolute blowout for Kamala. (……I hope)

  31. Ralston has been a doomer this whole cycle. To see him land on her pulling through is a welcomed surprise.

  32. Oh please, oh please, oh please

    I am a survivor of 2016 election. Lots of poll-related PTSD

  33. It still bovgle my mind that Trump will get even a single vote. Especially since he is a felon and can’t vote for himself.

  34. The fact that it is this close is pretty distressing.

  35. Go and vote no matter what!

    We don’t win this until Kamala is officially announced as the next president

  37. She better lol! I drove my ass 6 hours back home to vote for her in Nv!

Comments are closed.